Abu Muqawama: November 2008

Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS. Abu Muqawama retains the right to delete comments that include words that incite violence; are predatory, hateful, or intended to intimidate or harass; or degrade people on the basis of gender, race, class, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. In summary, don't be a jerk.

  • "On NBC and in other public forums, General McCaffrey has consistently advocated wartime policies and spending priorities that are in line with his corporate interests. But those interests are not described to NBC’s viewers. He is held out as a dispassionate expert, not someone who helps companies win contracts related to the wars he discusses on television."

    Great reporting or unfair smear? Read the rest here and debate in the comments.
  • Hard-hitting analysis from the Washington Post:
    "His reputation is pretty good," one Pentagon official said. "He's savvy about Washington, worked the Hill," and at a lean 6-foot-4, the former Georgetown basketball player "looks great in a suit."
    Well, thank goodness for life's little blessings, I guess.
  • ...it's worth remembering that we Americans can also make a hash of operations. Check out this interesting approach to population-centric COIN. (Don't ask me about the accompanying soundtrack. Which we can all agree is awesome.) I hope someone in this convoy stopped to at least get the motorist's information...

  • With this kind of skilled weapons handling, I have no idea why it's taken so long to kill the last terrorists in Mumbai. My buddy swears to me that India's CT/SOF is good, but...

    Ajai Sahni:
    I think India is extremely vulnerable. And the fundamental reason for that is that this is a state that has neglected security for decades. Investment in policing was considered a nondevelopmental—and consequently wasteful—expenditure. We are one of the most under-policed societies in the world. We have a ratio of 126 police per 100,000, whereas the Western ratio is 250-500 plus per 100,000.

    Also, our police are under-equipped and under-resourced across the board. There is no really hard counterterrorism core to policing in India, despite our decades of experience as a target of terrorism. Consequently there is absolutely no doubt that India is vulnerable to terrorism and will remain so in the coming years.

    I think this government as well as its predecessor has been equally inept and equally neglectful on the issue of terrorism …The principle task of law enforcement and law-and-order management and counterterrorism is the state's under the Indian constitution. It is the responsibility of the state governments that are run by various parties in the country. All major parties have some states under their control. With very rare exceptions, the quality of counterterrorism has been abysmal.

  • Apologies for being away. After a hectic few weeks of travel, I'm on the West Coast for a few days. (I was in Washington, DC on Tuesday, though, and saw both Charlie and the rogue genius behind this blog.) Upon returning to my lair in East Tennessee last week, I had a stack of books from amazon.com reaching up to the ceiling. Several of them are sitting next to me at this very moment. Because this blog's readership is a well-read crew, I figured I might share with you the books I ordered. On the day after Thanksgiving, there might be some gift ideas on here. And no, I don't expect to have read all these by the New Year.

    Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare (Companion)

    Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy

    The Pig and the Skyscraper: Chicago: A History of Our Future

    Dangerous Knowledge: Orientalism and Its Discontents

    Europe and the Mystique of Islam

    The Forever War

    The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War

    The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism

    The Qur'an (a new translation by a former professor)

    Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq

    Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq

    Playing the Enemy: Nelson Mandela and the Game That Made a Nation

    You now know way too much about my reading habits...
  • Victory for this blog, that is.

    Secretary Gates has agreed to stay on at the Pentagon. WaPo is reporting that he'll stay for a year, with most of his deputies being replaced by Obama appointees.

    Filling out the national security roster:

    SecState -- Hillary Clinton*
    Dep SecState -- Jim Steinberg
    NSAdvisor -- Gen. Jim Jones
    Amb to UN -- Susan Rice

    *Sorry for not commenting on that last week; your faithful bloggers were both traveling. On an unrelated note, Charlie can also now confirm stateside sightings of AM himself. Welcome back, mate.
  • The three challenges confronting the US military today — the war against Islamist terrorist elements, the prospect of nuclear-armed rogue states, and the potential rise of China as a military rival — differ greatly from those confronted during the Cold War era. Nor do they resemble the threats planned for in the immediate post-Cold War era: minor powers like Iran, Iraq and North Korea that lacked weapons of mass destruction and were assumed to present challenges not all that different from Iraq during the First Gulf War. Hence the focus on waging two such conflicts in overlapping time frames that animated the Defense Department’s two major regional conflict posture sustained until the 9/11 attacks.

    For the Army, these new challenges all suggest the onset of an era of persistent, irregular conflict.
    I'm at a wedding this weekend prior to my triumphant return to East Tennessee. In my downtime this weekend, I am reading this important report (.pdf, passed along by SNLII).
  • Just arrived back in the USA after living abroad for four and a half years (minus a nine-month stay in DC). As I was getting off the plane in Charlotte -- where I am sitting in the airport, waiting on my connecting flight -- a guy ahead of me was talking loudly on the phone to a friend about his just-completed tour of Europe. Toward the end of the conversation, he said:

    "Yeah, there's some of them on the plane ... Yeah, there are ... Well, hell, I dunno, but they look Muslim-looking."

    Ah, America. (He was probably talking about me!)

    Two things in the papers today worth high-lighting. One, I bought the Independent this morning in Gatwick because it came with a free bottle of water. (Rumor has it that the Indy will not make it through this financial crisis.) Robert Fisk is back in Afghanistan, and though my "love" for "Meester Robert" is well known, he unwittingly makes a pretty good case for the comprehensive approach to COIN in this dispatch.
    Barack Obama wants to send 7,000 more American troops to this disaster zone. Does he have the slightest idea what is going on in Afghanistan? For if he did, he would send 7,000 doctors.
    Can't we send both?

    Also in today's papers, Robert Worth (and his trusty photographer sidekick Bryan Denton) have been getting better-than-average access to Hizballah recently and have a long feature on Hizballah's youth organization in the New York Times. (Bryan's accompanying photo essay is here.) This is all part of Hizballah's efforts to create a "society of resistance." My worry is that the greatest danger in creating a society of resistance is that you might actually succeed. Bacevich may talk about American militarism, but I worry more about these non-state actors who build up armed conflict as their raison d'être. If peace in suddenly in your best interest a year or so down the road, for example, how are you going to tell these kids to stand down? Are they going to be happy working in a cell phone kiosk in Tyre?

    Finally, there is a new website that claims to be able to analyze blogs and such and tell you their personalities. Here is how the site described the Abu Muqawama crew:
    The independent and problem-solving type. They are especially attuned to the demands of the moment are masters of responding to challenges that arise spontaneously. They generally prefer to think things out for themselves and often avoid inter-personal conflicts.
    Um, unless those conflicts are with Charlie Dunlap or Bing West.

    Update: More from the Charlotte airport. Two women were trying to remember what the capital of Alabama was. They asked me, and I replied "Montgomery." At this point some guy from, like, 15 seats over intervenes and says to the ladies, "No, it's Mobile." And then, looking right at me, says, "I am positive it is Mobile." I went back to reading Flash for Freedom and didn't bother picking a fight about it, but seriously, has America gotten dumber in the years I've been gone?
  • Spencer calls Zawahiri a racist. Which he is. But alas, the term "abed" (lit. "slave") to describe black Africans and blacks is all too common in the Arabic-speaking world.* And I actually think Zawahiri was trying to be clever by co-opting a phrase -- "house negro" -- used by Malcolm X & Co. back in the day. So I don't think Zawahiri is going to take too many hits for his diction. I also, though, don't think his latest silly message will be effective. Especially since no one cares what some Arab Egyptian living in a cave thinks about 1960s-era divisions in the African-American community. What, did Zawahiri get around to reading Alex Haley last week and get fired up? And does he honestly think Malcolm X would have broken bread with the likes of him?

    *I was lamenting this fact with a German-Palestinian friend in Beirut a few weeks back when the Lebanese guy driving the car interjected into our conversation: "Well, what else are we supposed to call them?" Yeah... What is the Arabic for "oy vey?" Anyone?
  • Captain Picard, meet Obi-Wan Kenobi.

    (For those unfamiliar, this is a still shot from the BBC version of Smiley's People, the third installment in John Le Carre's "Karla Trilogy." Sir Alec Guiness plays the eponymous Smiley, a consciously schlubby anti-Bond; Patrick Stewart is "Karla." The first book in the series, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, is among the best in the genre...and one of Charlie's all time favorites. And it too has a BBC version. Both DVD sets make for great holiday presents.)
  • ...it must be true? Reports are out that Hillary Clinton will accept Barack Obama's offer to be Secretary of State. So far, no additional stateside sourcing.

    Let Charlie channel AM's skepticism of what the British generously call "reporting." (No offense, Londonstani.) Stay tuned.
  • Check out George's email interview with DK.  Our favorite Aussie concludes:

    The situation in Afghanistan is dire. But the war is winnable. We need to focus our attention on the problem, and think before acting. But we need to think fast, and our actions need to involve a major change of direction, focussing on securing the population rather than chasing the enemy, and delivering effective legitimate governance to the people, bottom-up, at the local level. Do that, do it fast, and we stand an excellent chance of turning things around.

    There's a lot more red meat in the actual interview (which is rather less optimistic than the above excerpt suggests).  Charlie is intrigued by his idea of a counter-sanctuary strategy...

    PS Our more responsible cousins over at SWJ note that Dave will be on Fareed Zakaria's new show on CNN on Sunday (1pm ET).
  • The only thing that approaches Charlie's weakness for shoes (other than Marines) is books. If you are similarly inclined (for the books, not the other stuff), check out the firesale going on over at Princeton University Press.

    Highlights include Steve Biddle's Military Power, WWI strategy reader, and all the Gilpin, Keohane, and game theory you can stomach. Check it out.
  • Does President-elect Obama read this blog, too?!? AM and Charlie are fairly sure that no one loves the SecDef like they do.

    Friend-of-the-blog Yochi Dreazen reports:
    President-elect Barack Obama is leaning toward asking Defense Secretary Robert Gates to remain in his position for at least a year, according to two Obama advisers. A senior Pentagon official said Mr. Gates would likely accept the offer if it is made.
    We here at Abu M couldn't be more delighted. Glad people are getting on board for the big win.
    More later today...

  • While AM is preparing for Remembrance Day, Charlie is going to hold off on that for 24 hours while she indulges her more parochial tendencies and celebrates the United States Marine Corps' 233rd birthday.  For those who've never been, there are few things more entertaining than a Marine Birthday Ball (Charlie will attend her second of two, tonight)

    Happy Birthday, Devil Dogs!
  • The three convicted Bali Bombers were executed late last night by firing squad. Indonesian security forces await violent gatherings and events today. The three bombers were unrepentant to the end, glorifying in their celebrity all through their trial.

    One of the convicted was Imran Samudra, and his jailhouse autobiography, Saya Melawan Teroris" (Me Against Terrorists) had sold over 10,000 copies over three print runs. (Plans to translate the book into other languages, including English, have been on hold since late 2005. The Indonesian Government has said it would be reviewing the book to evaluate banning its continued publication).

    Counter-Radical publications have been less popular in terms of sales, though this may be more about notoriety than agreement.

    This goes to the heart of the problem regarding de-radicalization programs and movements. In many ways, they require what could be euphemistically termed "Passionate Moderation", and that is an incredibly difficult emotion to stir.

    There are, of course, the structural obstacles first. See this still-relevant report by the International Crisis Group on de-radicalisation programs in Indonesia. The ICG notes that the success of the programs are undermined by the problems within the prison system. Many critics have suggested that the Indonesian Government's failure to close off the Bali Bombers from the media heightened their celebrity and continued to fan the flames of the radical movement. On this score, the government cannot win, as if they had closed the prisoners off, they would have likely been subject to criticisms from simple mistreatment to torture.

    But even if prison reform magically occurs, the energy needed to keep these programs going, and to make them relevant to the ones that need to be reached, will remain difficult. Simply put, MODERATION IS BORING. Regardless of how one ties recruitment into ANY group/movement to the need for young (men, especially) to find excitement, note that NONE of the "recruiting" movements stress even-handedness and balance.

    So, how to counter the militant, the true believer? Arguably with someone who's been there, as the Indonesia program attempts to do. The experiences of those like Ed Husain are also interesting. (Husain's book is a wonderful read. It is available via Amazon.co.uk, but not in the US directly. Carlos bought it when the dollar was much stronger, interested readers in the US now have to deal with a tougher exchange rate).

    Alternatively, there are those who have the same experience but not the same result. In this light, Carlos recommends the blog by Noor Huda Ismail. Ismail was for six years a student at the Al Mukmin Ngruki, the boarding school founded by Abu Bakkar Baasyir (spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah. Ismail is a contemporary to the Bali Bombers and many of their supporters.

    Passionate Moderation is so hard to come by. On one level it may manifest in perceived hypocrisy. Carlos remembers fondly his time in Kosovo, drinking beer and smoking cigarettes (though Carlos does not partake of the tobacco)with large groups of Albanian Muslims. One of them referred to Kosovo as home to "Rock and Roll Muslims," and that is either the hope or the danger of such presentation. R'n'R Muslims certainly don't play in Southeast Asia. Well, if they do, they aren't as blatant:

    (Carlos remembers being in grocery stores in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, one of his favorite cities. Next to the beer and wine, there are frequently prominent signs in Malay, English, and sometimes Arabic. The signs state "Muslims Cannot Buy Alcohol." Carlos wonders which Muslim needed to be told that).

    But that is of course the symptom of the problem. "Integrated" believers either allow for others to "sin," or (more problematically for the believer) allow for a certain amount of secular hypocrisy. It's not hard to see why the militant voice has such play in comparison to that. Carlos cheers for the Rock and Roll Muslims (and Christians, and Buddhists, etc,) but he recognizes the problem with such "movements" toward secularization and moderation. They in fact increase the threat to those who feel both disenfranchised from the "society to come" and view the "society that was" (even if only in mind) being erased and degraded.
  • This NYT article is a good follow on from the academic paper in the last post.

    Now, Londonstani has always been more than a little skeptical about Saudi and Egyptian de-radicalisation efforts. Mainly because it has seemed mostly political in its objectives. ie. to convince Western allies that they are part of the solution and not the problem. Also, there's the huge elephant-shaped question of the Saudi government's own domestic policies. These de-rad schemes usually happily bypass this by blaming "deviant" ideology.

    However, this scheme touches on what we were discussing in the last post; psychological issues.

    "Though the Saudi government tends to explain its rehabilitation program in purely Islamic terms, as an effort to correct theological misunderstandings, the new program also addresses the psychological needs and emotional weaknesses that have led many young men to jihad in the first place."

    and..

    "Though the exact nature of the role that religious belief plays in the recruitment of jihadists is the subject of much debate among scholars of terrorism, a growing number contend that ideology is far less important than family and group dynamics, psychological and emotional needs. “We’re finding that they don’t generally join for religious reasons,” John Horgan told me. A political psychologist who directs the International Center for the Study of Terrorism at Penn State, Horgan has interviewed dozens of former terrorists. “Terrorist movements seem to provide a sense of adventure, excitement, vision, purpose, camaraderie,” he went on, “and involvement with them has an allure that can be difficult to resist. But the ideology is usually something you acquire once you’re involved.”

    Psychological factors are not exclusive to young men from poor backgrounds. And, there's no suggestion that "mental deficiencies" are the only factor. Rather, there is an underlying thought processes going through a young man's mind when he's getting fired up listening to someone talk about the need to fight to protect weak Muslims. Does it give him a sense of self importance that was otherwise lacking? Is he willing to absorb with relative passivity the ideology being presented to him because the rhetoric is fulfilling a more personal need?

    The motivating factors for radical extremism are different in different societies. Although, in Londonstani's experience the psychological aspect is similar, to some degree, amongst British born/raised and Saudi Muslims, who both come from relatively affluent societies.
  • Londonstani's been taking a peek at the dark side recently. You might wonder what this means. Has he been hanging out with Jihadis, again? Has he decided to call it a day with journalism and take up a government job?

    Nope, it's much worse. Londonstani's been reading academic papers... yes, a complete mortal straight-to-hack-hell sin. He's not yet willing to admit (publicly at least) that the white towers of academia have even an iota of knowledge to impart to hard working journalists who spend time actually among the subjects studied from afar in dusty libraries.

    However....

    After spending quite a bit of time with radicals in London, Londonstani was pondering whether theologically based initiatives to de-radicalise were actually of any use. It was difficult not to get the niggling feeling that while the young men he was talking to justified their ideas Islamically, there were other more mundane issues of belonging, group dynamics, access to social mobility, community dynamics etc coming into play. By the end of the time Londonstani spent with them, he couldn't help wonder whether these guys would have happily made up the ideology they were spouting if it hadn't already existed before.

    In his readings, he came across a paper comparing Sayyid Qutb, Marxism and National Socialism.

    These lines near the end stood out:

    "Since radical Islamism is not simply an aggressive variant of Islamic belief, but an
    interpretation of the Qur’an in modern categories, it is an illusion to think that the
    people attracted by this ideology can simply be turned around by information
    and education. Rather, it is necessary to react to the ideology’s strategy of
    unmasking the promises of modernity which have not been kept. To be able to do
    this, however, one needs to realise that radical Islamism is part of the inside strug-
    gle for the right understanding of modernity, a ‘dark side … of modernity’ as
    Eisenstadt calls it. As long as western societies are unwilling to recognise the
    modern character of radical Islamism, they will continually underestimate its
    power over people and its attractiveness."

    Interesting..

    UPDATE: Just realised the link to the paper itself is missing. You want page 5-10 and then the second half of 17 and the first half of 18.
  • Was a good commander in Afghanistan, by all accounts. I didn't see this when it was announced. Hopefully he'll be what the British Army needs as well. I sat next to him at dinner once and made some snide remark about his beloved Welsh Rugby Team. He then turned to Nagl and told him that "Young Exum" should do a stint in the U.S. Army to teach me some manners. Nagl laughed and replied that the U.S. Army had revealed Captain Exum to be unteachable.

  • To our stateside readers:  we want to hear about your voting experience today.

    After casting your ballots, take a minute and post something in the comments.

    PS Charlie will be off the net for most the rest of the week.  She heads up to West Point tomorrow for the annual SCUSA conference.

    Update:  Charlie has just watched Sen. John McCain give an amazing--no, daring-- concession speech.  Though we've had our differences, Charlie and AM have both stated their admiration for the man over the last year.  Good of him to remind everyone of his class and sense of service on Election Night.

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