Abu Muqawama: January 2009

Abu Muqawama retains its autonomy and the views and beliefs expressed within the blog do not reflect those of CNAS. Abu Muqawama retains the right to delete comments that include words that incite violence; are predatory, hateful, or intended to intimidate or harass; or degrade people on the basis of gender, race, class, ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. In summary, don't be a jerk.


  • But can someone please tell me what in god's name the "senior director for multilateral affairs" is going to do?   

    Because if it's having freckles, drinking whiskey, and occasionaly getting yourself fired on account of putting your (well clad) foot in your mouth, then they could have hired me for half the price.

    NSC
  • The Demise of the British Army (Economist)
    British commanders have belatedly realised that they have much to learn, or rather relearn, about fighting small wars in distant lands. “We have lost our way,” says one general.

    Underlying this malaise is concern about Britain’s relationship with America, its most important ally. Generals worry that the United States is losing confidence in Britain’s military worth. Some Americans have indeed been expressing doubts: policymakers ask whether British leaders are losing the will to fight, soldiers whether their British counterparts are losing the ability to do so. There is talk that Britain is becoming “Europeanised”, more averse to making war and keener on peacekeeping. Britain remains America’s closest and most able ally; its special forces are particularly prized. But one senior official in the former Bush administration says there is “a lot of concern on the US side about whether we are going to have an ally with the capability and willingness to be in the fight with us”. He is bemused by the “tyranny of the lawyers” who constrain British military operations and dumbfounded by how “you only see British officers wearing their uniforms when they come to visit Washington, not in London.”

    The Battle of Wanat, Part II, Part III, Part IV (Tom Ricks)
  • About a year ago, I sent my buddy John a copy of The Street Without Joy. John was in the 173rd Airborne in eastern Afghanistan at the time, and reading this article in the New York Times Magazine had reminded me of the fighting in Indochina as described by Bernard Fall 50 years earlier.

    This report by Tom Ricks, though, suggests the U.S. Army's officer corps is not being terribly honest with itself regarding the difficulties in Afghanistan. A few of you sent this report on the Battle of Wanat to me, and I am especially interested in hearing what the readership has to say.
    When most of the fighting was over, about an hour later, nine American soldiers were dead and another 27 were wounded. Between 21 and 52 of the attackers were killed. The Americans held the outpost, which is impressive, considering their 75 percent casualty rate. ...

    It is an interesting case to study especially because of the discrepancy between what is known about the incident and what has been learned from it. In other words, the facts gathered by Col. Mark Johnstone in the Army investigation are compelling, but the conclusions drawn from those facts are not. Rather, the Army appears determined to shy away from the lessons indicated by those facts. Here is what the Army concluded -- basically that we did OK, we should have had a Predator overhead, and that we shouldn't have trusted those lousy Afghans. And then let's talk about how brave our soldiers were. ...

    The soldiers did fight valiantly at Wanat. I am in awe of them. As one reported to the Army investigator, "I continued to lay suppressive fire with the 240 [machine gun] but it was difficult because I was unable to stand due to wounds in both legs and my left arm." When this soldier ran out of ammunition he realized that he was the only one left alive in his corner of the outpost, with the enemy so close he could hear them talking.

    It takes nothing away from the soldiers to say that there are other lessons to be learned here. "You go through the 15-6 and your heart sinks, as you see all this," said one person who has reviewed most of the data gathered on the battle.

    Indeed, one way to honor them would be to look at what might have been done better to help them. But the Army seems positively determined not to study the Wanat incident.
  • Do you think "CIA Agent Drugs, Rapes Arab Women" is a story that will get much play in the Arabic-speakng world and further harm our image in the Middle East? Nah, me neither. We can probably let this one slide as I don't see any way in which this will be reported on Arabic-language satellite networks or in the newspapers tomorrow.
  • I went to a party for Ole Boy Pete Singer's new book last night.I received the book in the mail two days ago and have only read a few chapters, but it is really interesting -- especially for those of us who operate on the low-tech side of warfare but have a keen interest in developing more unmanned ISR platforms. Watch Pete on the Daily Show tomorrow night.

    I received another book in the mail yesterday, and this one I have read because the author sent me a draft manuscript in Beirut. I know a little something about memoirs of going to Ranger School and then fighting in Afghanistan,so I feel qualified to say that Craig Mullaney's new book is a damn fine one.

    Both men, I happen to know, helped Barack Obama get elected this past fall. So I suspect I'll be blogging more about both of them in the near future.

    (You know, I just decided that since I'm not getting paid for this blog or anything I'm going to put a product link to my own book on the sidebar. That seems like a smart idea that I probably should have done, oh, two years ago. This, folks, is why I am poor. I do have a hot girlfriend, though. I've got that going for me.)

    Update: On balance, not a good day for books and book reviews.
  • My old mentor Timur Bey sent me an article in which he was quoted. What a peach of a quote this is:
    All armies are by nature ill-prepared for unconventional wars. During the Israeli occupation of Lebanon (1982-2000) Hizbullah often attacked the Israeli army on Sundays when supplies were brought in and soldiers came back from leave. "Armies need to work more like an Amtrack train (known for its irregularity) and less like a Swiss train when fighting guerrillas," says Göksel.
  • Holy $&!%, where have I been?  A shoe shopping safari?  A christmas fudge induced coma? Maybe I took Ex too seriously when he said we had nothing more to write about now that Tom Ricks was on the scene.  (Btw, does Laura Rozen have the phones at Foggy Bottom wiretapped?  Jaysus.)

    Honestly, short answer:  Jury Duty.  Now in my fourth week.  Phil Carter says it's my civic duty, so I've got that going for me. 

    More generally, my mental energy seems to be direct more toward the economic crisis than day-to-day activities in the COIN world.  (Not that I know anything about economics.)   

    But one thing* has rousted me from my jury-induced turpitude:  more inane comments from our friend at 8th and Eye.  The Commandant wants to send Marines to Afghanistan, again, shifting troops from Iraq. (This isn't really news is most defense circles...people have been working this for quite some time.)  But why does Gen Conway have to say such utterly maddening and patently false things like this?
    "It's very much a nation-building kind of environment that's taking place there [Iraq]" now, Conway said, adding "that is not what we do, and we need those Marines elsewhere."
    The United States Marine Corps:  We don't promise you a rose garden (and we don't do windows, either).  

    For starters, this is ahistorical bullsh*t.  (I'm of half a mind to send The Bateman over for a remedial lesson on Marine Corps history).  The Marines have arguably done more of this sort of work than any other service; they literally wrote the book on it.  (I know they don't have a lot of engineers or civil affairs guys.  They also don't have enough helicopters or log to do the mission in Afghanistan, so it's not like they're perfectly suited to that task either.)

    For another, we here at the world's greatest blog don't tolerate that kind of crap from the Air Force or Army, and Uncle Sam's Mistreated Children aren't going to get away with it either.  Maybe Gen Mattis nees to take Gen Conway out back, smack him around a bit, and tell him to get on board for the big win.  But this petty, 1980s-era inter-service dick waving has got to stop.  
    Oh, and if Gen Conway thinks he can "fight" his way out of the war in Afghanistan, then we have bigger problems than is political tone deafness.  Unless of course he found a beach to storm in FATA.  Or he could try listening to his boss.

    Oorah.

    *That, and Ex is right:  how are we not the center of the COIN universe?  This aggression shall not stand.
  • Don't tell anyone that a journalist let you into this little (sort of) secret.. but everyone (that means British media outlets) are trying desperately to figure out how they are going to cover 2009's big story - Pakistan.

    There isn't too much coming out of Pakistan because 1) No British news organisation understands the place 2) No British organisations have proper journalists there. (ie. not local stringers who are paid slave wages to go to dangerous places and point a camera).

    The result is that the sheer mess of the place is being overlooked. It also helps that the government is keen to try and persuade everyone that things are pretty much OK since the horrible dictator Musharraf was made to leave. Things would be even better, they say, once the Americans butt out. Londonstani wasn't a big fan of the Americans butting in, but doesn't think that's the summation of the very serious problems there.

    Anyway, William Dalrymple has a good review in the New York Review of Books of Ahmed Rashid's Descent into Chaos that covers the present situation, while also adding much needed background.

    There's definitely a lot in it that many will disagree with on a ... well "world outlook level" would probably be a good way of describing it.. so why not just get it out of the way first.

    "Eight years of neocon foreign policies have been a spectacular disaster for American interests in the Islamic world, leading to the rise of Iran as a major regional power, the advance of Hamas and Hezbollah, the wreckage of Iraq, with over two million external refugees and the ethnic cleansing of its Christian population, and now the implosion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably the most dangerous development of all."

    Dalrymple says he agrees with Rashid's view that the Bush administration's portrayal of the terrorism as some sort of illogical, unthinking, sudden outburst of blind hatred only served to make the problem worse. This point, in one form or another, is often debated on this blog (particularly for some reason on the comment threads of Londonstani's postings). So, maybe there's no point dragging it up again, but here it is so we can read, digest and move on.

    "...terrorism was presented by the administration as a result of a "sudden worldwide anti-Americanism rather than a result of past American policy failures." Bush's speech to Congress, claiming that the world hated America because "they hate our freedoms—our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote," ignored the political elephant standing in the middle of the living room—US foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, with its long history of unpopular interventions in the Islamic world and its uncritical support for Israel's steady colonization of the West Bank and violent repression of the Palestinians. As the Department of Defense Science Board rightly pointed out in response to Bush's speech: "Muslims do not 'hate our freedom,' but rather they hate our policies."

    In the same vein, we also often visit the idea that the problem lies with Islam. Rashid makes a good point as to why this is not only inaccurate, but also counter productive.

    "the intense hostility to Islam emanating from both the press and the government of the United States that made it so difficult for moderates in the Islamic world to counter the propaganda of the extremists. How could the moderates dispute the notion that America was engaged in a civilizational war against Islam when this was clearly something many in the administration, and their supporters in the press, did indeed believe?... as Rashid puts it:

    "If they hated us, then Americans should hate Muslims back and retaliate not just against the terrorists but against Islam in general. By generating such fears it was virtually impossible to gain American public attention and support for long-term nation building."

    Londonstani has read Rashid's book and does recommend it to anyone who hasn't. He likes that Rashid doesn't shy away from blaming Pakistan's military rulers but also explains what they are thinking:

    "Many in the army still believe that the jihadis make up a more practical defense against Indian dominance than even nuclear weapons. For them, supporting a range of jihadi groups in Afghanistan and Kashmir is not an ideological or religious whim so much as a practical and patriotic imperative."

    So, if you can't read the book, read this.

    Update: Abu Muqawama here. Goodness. I just read that Dalrymple article. One of the more depressing things I have read since breakfast.
  • Check out this dude's graph depicting the COINdinista set. Okay, I'm not upset he didn't include Abu Muqawama or our more responsible cousin the Small Wars Journal. But anyone who knows anything about COIN policy knows you can't draw a social network without putting Charlie in the middle as the hub of hubs. Also, he probably should have spelled "Petraeus" correctly. And "Fick". And "Bleuer". (Speaking of Christian Bleuer, I have not been reading his blog lately, but a quick glance was enough to remind me what a valuable resource on Afghanistan that guy is.) Anyway, a better graph than the one this dude came up with would have been far more extensive and incestuous. A friend of mine said yesterday, "I don't agree with Gian about a lot, but he is correct that the COIN crowd is a kind of mafia."

    That's right, kids. A mafia we are. I am now reminded of that Monty Python skit where the mafia tries to shake down an air force base. "These are some nice F-22s, colonel. It would be a shame if something were to happen to them."

    In other news, check out the prepared remarks of Sec. Gates today. They are worth reading in full.
  • Marc Lynch -- in his wheelhouse -- has the full run-down on Obama's appearance on al-Arabiyya. He also makes a great point at the end of his post, which is that this should be the final nail in al-Hurra's coffin. After 500 million dollars and years of investment, we have to consider America's Arabic-language television channel to be a dismal failure when the incoming president chooses another outlet to make his first address to the Arabic-speaking world. Enough already. Pull the plug.

  • Yochi Dreazen, just back from Afghanistan, has a must-read article in the Wall Street Journal on the proliferation of private security companies in Afghanistan.

    KABUL, Afghanistan -- A contingent of Army Rangers was moving toward a target in late October when it came under fire from machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. Fearful the team would be wiped out, U.S. officers called in air strikes. When the dust settled, 22 Afghans lay dead and six American soldiers were wounded.

    Just who these dead Afghans were is still unclear. Afghan and some U.S. officials say they were hired by an Afghan road-construction firm to protect nearby workers. The security company confirms their employment. But other U.S. military officials say the Afghans were militants who targeted American troops.

    Armed private security companies are proliferating in Afghanistan -- hired in many cases to protect Afghan companies doing work for the U.S. And for the American forces who regularly encounter these armed men, it is perilously hard to discern their identities and their loyalties. Some of these guards may be linked to the militant leaders or drug traffickers who regularly battle U.S. troops. ...

    Three officers from the military's Special Operations Command, which oversees elite units such as the Rangers, Delta Force and the Seals, disputed the notion that the dead Afghans were legitimate security personnel.

    "Why they were awake at 0200 local, and firing accurately (on a moonless night) at a patrol, and their compound looked like an armed fortress -- all unanswered questions," a senior commander with U.S. Special Operations Command said via email. "The circumstances ... did not point to any actions in good faith."

  • A smart friend of mine said yesterday that Obama's problem in Afghanistan is not that he has too few brigades but that the advisory mission there is so woefully understaffed. (I'm talking, like, just 40% of capacity, folks.)

    Tom Ricks takes up the question of advisers with his office buddy, John Nagl, in this post on Foreign Policy. John notes we have embraced COIN doctrine to a large degree but still do not reward officers for serving as advisers in their career paths. This just goes to show that it's easier to change doctrine than it is to change institutions. Can anyone, honestly, see the U.S. Army re-writing the career paths of its combat arms officers to reward them for service as advisers? Honestly?
  • Ha!

    Oh, teh internets! You never let me down! After pasting a humorous email I received from a friend of mine in England onto the blog yesterday, folks flipped the %$#@ out and assumed that I had written it and didn't love Jesus and America anymore. Or something. Anyway, sorry for the minsunderstanding, though the fact that one little post generated this multi-volume opus from our friend Herschell Smith is hilarious.

    Given the billions upon billions of dollars spent by the U.S. on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan (in aid to fight the Taliban), AIDS in Africa and other such programs, it isn’t clear what might be Andrew’s objection. Perhaps along with Secretary Gates he doesn’t like the fact that the application of reconstruction and soft power has been the U.S. military. I don’t think the U.S. military likes it either, but if Andrew believes that this has been the choice of the Bush administration he is of course mistaken. Does he not recall the near riotous behavior at the State Department when Condi Rice threatened mandatory overseas deployments of State employees? Does he really believe that it will be any different under the new administration? At least the Army and Marines had training and weapons. Does Andrew have a plan for force protection of State employees when their heads turn up decapitated while deployed? Does anyone really know how this is going to work?

    Perhaps Andrew is talking about the use of diplomatic and political pressure. True enough, both I and Michael Ledeen have both been strong proponents of political pressure on Iran in order to prevent war. We have both lamented the sure-to-be heavy cost of war with Iran and advocated democracy programs (I and Michael), fomenting of an insurgency (I and Michael) and even targeted assassinations of select high ranking individuals (only me to the best of my knowledge). We have said that Iranian General Qassem Suleimani (the very same one to whom Petraeus appealed to stop the shelling inside the Green zone) should know that he is a marked man.

    But notwithstanding the brutish and heavy-handed tactics tactics I recommend, the State Department cannot even find it in themselves to continue with pressure on Iran during the Bush administration. They gave up the only remaining democracy program in favor of - you guessed it, or maybe you didn’t because you couldn’t conceive of a program like this - student exchange. Does Andrew believe that talks by the State Department which cannot even continue a democracy program for Iran will pressure them to relinquish their enrichment program? This new State Department will clearly align with the new administration which believes in the eternal power of talk. Will student exchange programs change the radical Mullahs? Will we ultimately convince ourselves that we can live with a nuclear Iran, or will the new administration save the day with talks?

    Perhaps Andrew has a thing for largesse. Perhaps he believes that the U.S. is obligated to make payments across the globe in order to further democracy. But if the global insurgency in which we are currently engaged was a function of poverty, then Bangladesh, which is not only one of the poorest countries on the face of the earth but Muslim as well, would be a well-spring of Islamic extremism. But it’s not, because the notion that poverty causes extremism is a myth. So that argument for international socialism borne on the shoulders of the American taxpayer rather falls apart at the hands of cold, hard logic.

    Perhaps Andrew believes that more money should have been forthcoming from the government for the conduct of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. Okay. His gripe should have been with the Congress, but it doesn’t seem to be. Besides, given the funding of construction, arms, training for the Army and police, reconstruction of infrastructure such as the electrical grid and other gigantic programs such as payment to the Sons of Iraq, surely Andrew is aware of the massive amount of money we have spent on Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Perhaps Andrew believes that the U.S. hasn’t worked for democracy throughout the world. But I (and others) have strongly argued that it was precisely our irrational commitment to Maliki because of his having been democratically elected that caused such lethargy in the progress of pacification.

    So then what is his gripe about soft power? Who exactly has failed in this regard, and given his giddiness over the new administration, what does he know about their ability to exercise soft power that we don’t? Does he know where the money is coming from, and how we would do this new and improved thing without bankrupting the country?

    There are many unanswered questions from Andrew. He has clearly told us all that he knows more than we do about soft power, to the point that he knows what this administration is going to do and how successful they are going to be.

    More, Andrew? Would you like to fill in the gaps of our knowledge with your deep, Gnostic learning? Specifics please, rather than venom and invective! We got the executive summary. You forgot to give us the balance of the report.

    Woah! Easy there, Tiger! Put down the weapons, I surrender! It was a joke!

    I swear, if you guys have started some internet campaign against me and I have to go on the O'Reilly Factor to defend my honor or something, I'm going to be pissed.
  • It's a battle royale on Afghanistan! Every COINdinista for himself!

    Exum:
    Given the successes enjoyed by the United States military in implementing its new counter-insurgency doctrine in Iraq in 2007, one would expect proponents of the doctrine to be eager to attempt a similar effort in Afghanistan. But that’s not the case. Indeed, many of the military officers and theorists who championed this doctrine are divided over whether or not a similar approach would work in Afghanistan. For them, Afghanistan presents an especially difficult case study.

    Nagl:
    [An] improving security situation and an increasingly capable Iraqi government now allow the United States to shift the balance of effort east, to America’s forgotten war. This shift comes in the nick of time.

    Khanna:
    Even if an additional 30,000 American and NATO troops were deployed in southern and eastern Afghanistan, the Taliban problem would not be reduced. It would merely be pushed back over the Pakistan border, destabilizing Pakistan’s already volatile North-West Frontier Province, which itself is more populous than Iraq. This amounts to squeezing a balloon on one end to inflate it on the other.

    Much more in the NYT.
  • From Ha'aretz:
    In addition to infantry, armor and intelligence units, the Israel Defense Forces has also deployed eight Eland antelope to further secure Israel's tense northern border against Hezbollah. The antelope have been stationed in the zone between the security fence and the international border to clear problematic foliage that distorts views of the Lebanese side and within which Hezbollah guerillas could hide. The animals, each weighing in at over 500 kilograms, are known for their sharp incisors and fondness for eating vegetation. Hailing from eastern Africa, the animals were first brought to Israel more than 30 years ago as part of a project to raise them at local zoos before sending them to Europe.

    (Thanks, Ben.)

    Update: Hey, in all seriousness, Ha'aretz ran a solid political blow-by-blow of Gaza and a quickie military analysis of the campaign from Issacharoff and Harel on Friday. Both are worth your time.
  • Dear World:

    We, the United States of America, a top quality supplier of the ideals of liberty and democracy, would like to apologize for our 2001-2008 interruption in service. The technical fault that led to this eight-year service outage has been located, and a decision was taken in early November to completely replace the software responsible. The new software became fully functional on January 20, 2009. Early tests of the newly installed program indicate that we are again operating correctly. We apologize for any inconvenience caused by the outage. We look forward to resuming full service and hope to continue improvements in the years to come. We thank you for your patience and understanding.

    Sincerely,
    THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
  • Amazingly, dinner tonight with Gian Gentile did not result in fisticuffs. Actually, it was great. I'm looking forward to his talk tomorrow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
  • A week out of internet range means that Londonstani is doing a lot of his Gaza catch up and blog reading this weekend.

    As ever, AM has been on the case and hit the nail on the head. Londonstani has been quite surprised by the way the British government has reacted to Gaza '09 compared to Lebanon '06.

    Instead of backing Israel come what may, the government has been careful to show that is unhappy with Israel's actions. By the by, that stance has been mirrored in the media, where even usually quite pro-Israel publications have run articles critical of Israel's policies in general and its actions in Gaza in particular.

    Londonstani did wonder whether the sands had shifted because of the obviously high death toll, or whether a certain sensitivity for British Muslim sensibilities had suddenly kicked in.

    Then, government officials issued statements that basically said, "hey, didn't you all notice how we've changed our tune."

    For example: "Ms Blears said the UK has called Israel's bombings "disproportionate", but added: "We're not all brilliant at [expressing this] and I think we have to really, really try now to explain that so that people don't feel that there's hypocrisy and double standards."

    And another: "Speaking to the Guardian, Malik expressed alarm that the vast majority of British Muslims were drawing no distinction between current UK government policy and that held by Tony Blair when he failed to condemn immediately an invasion of Lebanon by Israel in 2006."

    The online and real world campaigns over Gaza launched in the UK (specifically in London) built upon an infrastructure that had its foundations laid in the anti-war demonstrations of 2003. With every new incident to whip up anger, Londonstani has noticed an upgrade in capability and capacity.

    The comments show that the point being made by the British official AM spoke with has been realised on the highest political levels. Londonstani can imagine that if a lynching-happy rag like the Daily Mail got hold of AM's info, there would be all sorts of furious headlines claiming "Government changes foreign policy to appease Muslims" or some such other crap. But this totally misses the point. In the real world, it seems to Londonstani like a threshold moment with short term and long term effects.

    In the short term, the unsaid fear seems to be that the government might be pushed into pulling out of Afghanistan, for example, because that's what newly politicised Muslims in Britain want. Now, it maybe true that is indeed what British Muslims want in a knee-jerk sort of fashion. But it in reality, despite the newly squeaking voice, British Muslims have little of the cash, organisation and contacts that translate into real political clout. The F1 racing lobby has much more influence. It's much more likely that the British government uses British Muslims as a fig leaf to do something they would really like to do anyway (like pull out of Afghanistan).

    However, in the long-term, there is a good chance that the British Muslim community (or communities) will have a bigger voice in foreign policy. Now, before anyone gets all worked up about "benefiting from terror", remember that it wouldn't be the first time a community pressure group to say "of course, we are trying to control our angry young people. but, if you don't give us X, they will do something silly that we can't control". In fact, Londonstani has had conversations with the fluffy secular Polisario people in southern Morocco/Western Sahara that sound very similar.

    In the long run, the process can't be a bad thing. Feeling that your anger will be heard and registered forestalls the sense of angry hopelessness that extremism feeds off.

    Londonstani just wishes someone had reminded the American official that it wasn't too long ago that tensions in N. Ireland affected immigrant groups in the U.S., which reciprocated by funding terror in Britain.

    Update: Abu Muqawama here. Let me just add to that last sentence that Rep. Peter King (R, NY) -- after 9/11, one of the most outspoken public officials against Islamist terrorism -- was, pre-9/11, one of the IRA's most enthusiastic supporters in the U.S. Congress. Sigh.
  • Yeah, so it completely escaped me that Beirut's Daily Star, an English-language newspaper far more widely read in the West than in Lebanon, has been shuttered. Apparently they forgot to pay their bills. For years. (This will not come as news to anyone who has ever worked at this newspaper.) A friend of mine who works there said the goons showed up one day last week, threw everyone out, and pad-locked the doors.
  • Check out Marc Ambinder's interview with David Petraeus's right-hand man in 2007, Col. Pete Mansoor. Also, Intrepid Spencer refuses to admit that the newspaper and investigative journalism are dead, wondering how the services are going to cloak everything in COIN-speak to justify the inclusion of big weapons systems in the 2009 budget.
  • I was having lunch yesterday with a noted defense intellectual and retired military officer who was, among other things, giving me some hilarious career advice for when I finish my PhD. ("If I worked in the Pentagon," he told me, "I would be naked with a rifle on the roof within a week." I probably would be as well. Ah, well...) The conversation turned to Gaza, though, and he asked me what I thought.

    I first said that Hizballah -- a group I know a hell of a lot more about than Hamas -- excels along three lines of operation: combat operations, information operations, and the provision of social services to the population. Hamas, it appears, is not nearly as sophisticated in any of those three lines of operation despite being almost exactly as old, as an organization, as Hizballah was in 2006.

    That said, the parallel I keep drawing is not between Hizballah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 but rather between Gaza in 2009 and southern Lebanon in both 1993 and 1996. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of Operation Accountability (1993) and Operation Grapes of Wrath (1996), let me just say this: In 1993, Israel conducted an air- and artillery-based campaign which displaced over 100,000 Lebanese and destroyed around 6,000 homes in southern Lebanon. That's about how many homes have been destroyed in Gaza. Immediately following the operation, though, UN observers in southern Lebanon began to see something they had never observed before: Jihad al-Bina, Hizballah's construction arm. For the first time, Jihad al-Bina had a major presence in the area and in fact rebuilt many of the home that had been destroyed in the fighting.

    One of the Israeli goals in 1993 was to create a rift between Hizballah and the population in the naive hopes the population would "crack down" on the guerrillas in their midst. The way in which Hizballah was able to distribute aid and reconstruction services following the operation, though, ensured Israel would not be able to do that. Hamas, like Hizballah, has an interest in similarly helping the population. But unlike Hizballah, they have serious competition. Both Fatah and international aid organizations will also be attempting to help the people of Gaza. Understand that in the same way in which Hizballah does not like aid programs taking place in southern Lebanon without at least their tacit -- and public -- approval, Hamas does not want competitors in this arena either. This explains some of the fighting which has taken place between Hamas and Fatah in the past few days.
    In the aftermath of the war, Fatah and Hamas are already fighting over who will distribute humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. Hamas is preventing Fatah activists from playing a role in the rebuilding of Gaza, and recently hijacked 12 trucks full of aid donated by the Jordanian government, meant for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
    So this is the fight to watch next. Pay close attention to who rebuilds Gaza -- and how Hamas will seek to get credit for every bit of aid that is delivered to the people. That fight will help determine the long-term strategic effects of this latest spasm of violence.
  • Oh, for goodness sake. Château Nooga will never be the same...
    Dr. John Nagl, the acclaimed author of "Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam," will speak at the UTC University Center's Raccoon Mountain Room on Tuesday, Feb. 3, at 12:15 p.m.

    Dr. Nagl, a 1988 West Point graduate, Rhodes Scholar, former Army colonel, and Bronze Star recipient, will speak on "Counterinsurgency Lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan."
  • I am now reading the 45 pages of advance questions (.pdf) from Michèle Flournoy's Senate confirmation hearing. If you are a front-line defense geek, this makes for fascinating reading.
  • Well, that was quite a day. After enjoying the inauguration with several of my favorite fellow veterans -- all names to watch in the coming few years, incidentally -- I skipped the inaugural ball because a) Lady Muqawama remains in Palo Alto, doing her equations, and I didn't feel like flying solo and b) I've got work today, dammit. Serious work!

    Speaking of serious, there is an article in the New York Times today on the way in which the war in Gaza has played out in France, which has a large North African population. About a year ago, a prominent UK defense intellectual traveled to Washington, DC and met with an equally prominent defense intellectual turned U.S. public official. Our British friend noted that it was harder for Europeans to actively support the war in Afghanistan -- much less Iraq -- because of the way it affected tensions in the large immigrant communities of Bradford, Birmingham, and my old haunt in Walthamstow. By prosecuting unpopular wars in Muslim lands, the Brit argued, we're running the risks of stoking the flames of insurgencies at home. The American response was, basically, a disinterested shrug: "It's not our fault you lot have had limited success integrating your immigrants into society," came the response, "and 'how things will play in Leyton' should not have an effect on collective defense requirements such as NATO obligations in Afghanistan. Your domestic political issues are your problem."

    Now, you do not have to have an opinion about whether or not the concern raised by our British friend was legitimate. When the Brit related this story to me, I -- then hanging my hat in the 'Stow -- immediately understood both sides. On the one hand, you can do like the American and essentially tell the Europeans they're in this mess because they -- unlike we suddenly morally superior, Obama-era Americans -- can't integrate immigrant communities better. But that doesn't matter. What matters is that disgruntled immigrant communities in the nations of Western Europe are finding their voice politically. (Perhaps an indication they are growing more integrated into society.) And perhaps NATO planners should consider how that will affect both collective defense requirements and also the unpopular-in-Europe war in Afghanistan.

    Thoughts from the crowd?

    [I'm sure the one blogger who has not abandoned me, Londonstani, has some particularly good thoughts on this.]

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