Center for a New American Security

The ASEAN Summit in Bangkok has been shut down with mass protests and clashes between pro-government groups, supporters of the previous government, and the military/police forces. How should the government respond?

(Carlos won't suggest SEALs, and ninjas are closer to being culturally appropriate than pirates here, but what about cowboys? The leader of the Redshirts--seen above--would fit...I mean, if the cowboys were the ones from the village people....)

Carlos was looking for a scorecard for the various players for the readership rather than trying to type it all up himself. The most concise one he found was here. More in-depth profiles can be found on the BBC site.

There's no real irony, despite the reportage, that the "Red Shirt" supporters of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra are using the same tactics that were used against Thaksin when he was in office. Good tactics is good tactics. Enlisting the aid of taxi drivers to block roads, pushing mass amounts of people to clog the airport, all great protest tactics. State of emergency has been declared, and the military is out firing weapons in the air. Tensions are, needless to say, very high, and a little slip could really push the situation over the top. The declaration is probably necessary (the Royal Thai Police do not have the manpower to deal with this size of protests), and more importantly, the Thai Police have had even *less* training on quelling riots than the military (though this has been shifting).

The regional and international implications are big here. Beyond the actual meetings, the ASEAN Summits have always been (attempted) showcases for the host country. With the turmoil in Thailand the last three years, this was going to be a big deal. This meeting was also meant to take advantage of the relatively good press of the G-20 summit The heads of government of 10+ countries (not just ASEAN members, but major dialogue partners Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand)getting run out of town isn't the best tourism/commerce campaign.

Whether Thaksin himself is orchestrating the Redshirt protests to destabilize the current government is interesting, but in the end is not critical. Thailand's internal stability holds larger ramifications and while the Abhisit government currently has the military's support, increasing chaos could see that change.

Carlos cannot say this "obscures" the problem of tensions in the South, but the Pattani movement over the last 4-5 years has been showing increasing levels of violence. Many in Thailand (government officials and others) had blamed Thaksin while he as PM for stirring tensions in the South for political purposes. True or not (the Pattani movement obviously predates Thaksin), he hasn't been the only player. Regional groups like Jemaah Islamiyah have long wanted a tie-in to the Southern Thailand issue, and their influence may be growing there (see the International Crisis Group reports on Southern Thailand--the website is currently down or flooded with requests (Carlos suspects the latter)--I'll re-edit later with links). With the Thai government having to deal with the protests, efforts to deal with the South will inevitably be on the backburner. The long-term impacts of this unfortunate fact could (will) be troubling.

EDIT: ICG site is still down, but the links are in a previous post here. I suspect that a more current ICG report will be hitting their site very soon.

Boy, who knew the G20 summit in London was going to attract roving gangs of crazy leftists?

Eh? What's that? "Everyone," you say? Oh.

Anyway, at least this is an exciting learning opportunity. In the below pictures, you see this tough-looking London cop using a baton correctly, with both hands, and another -- the lady cop to the right -- using one in perhaps the least effective way, swinging it like a damn mace and stone-cold thwaking dudes in the face.







Update: I found this awesome aerial shot via Wonkette. There's some really good teamwork here. Watch the way the Metropolitan Police works, moving back and forth in unison and -- this is key -- not forgetting the Port-O-Lets! Also, check out the moment when the protesters toss a fence or something and the officers at the back of the formation move the fence out of the way while their buddies continue to hold the line. These tactics are straight out of 1066, of course, but it's kinda cool to watch. And despite the name of the blog, seeing as how we are a counter-insurgency blog, we pretty much have to root for the 5-0 here. Sorry, fnord.



Update II: One of the CNAS interns, who served as a military policeman in Iraq in 2003 and 2004, writes in:

I am enjoying your post on baton use. As an MP, I recall something my platoon sergeant said to us during riot control training:

“if you ever use your baton like this (demonstrating what the female user is doing in your post), I will personally kick your ass!”

The first pic is correct – (with a couple other techniques being acceptable). The “he-man/fencing move” is a no-go, though.

I just read in the newspaper that a fourth Oakland police officer has died after being taken off of life support. A reader from California wrote in a few days back to ask whether or not any principles of COIN might be applied to mend the rift between the population and the "security forces" in the East Bay. Thoughts from the readership?

As much as we love him, Dave Kilcullen is only this blog's second most-favorite Australian. Our favorite we never get to write about because he never publishes anything. Today, though, in SWJ, Ben flaming galahed the following:

Recent operational experience has identified the need for the United States Government to make better use of law enforcement concepts, skills and organizations to improve outcomes in population centric operations. However, within this broad consensus, there is a lack of common understanding beyond ‘we need more police’. Deeper analysis of this problem space quickly identifies not just a lack of common understanding but three varying and overlapping perspectives on the role of law enforcement in this context.

Read the rest here. (And lots o' links.)

Who says counter insurgency is only applied in places like Afghanistan and Iraq? According to several newspaper reports over the last couple of weeks, British police are working their socks off to prevent an explosion of anger at home. "Yeah, yeah. Heard it all before," you might think. "Bloody British Muslims/ethnic minorities/hoodies and chavs - same c**p different day." Well, actually, not this time. Several newspapers have reported over the past couple of weeks that British police are preparing for a middle class uprising.

That's right everyone, you thought the threat to Britain's peace and security looked like this:



When in fact, it looks more like this:



It's gonna get ugly:

"Superintendent David Hartshorn, who heads the Metropolitan police's public order branch, told the Guardian that middle-class individuals who would never have considered joining demonstrations may now seek to vent their anger through protests this year.

"He said that banks, particularly those that still pay large bonuses despite receiving billions in taxpayer money, had become "viable targets". So too had the headquarters of multinational companies and other financial institutions in the City which are being blamed for the financial crisis."

Any COIN-related suggestions? Deradicalisation strategies?