Center for a New American Security

The ASEAN Summit in Bangkok has been shut down with mass protests and clashes between pro-government groups, supporters of the previous government, and the military/police forces. How should the government respond?

(Carlos won't suggest SEALs, and ninjas are closer to being culturally appropriate than pirates here, but what about cowboys? The leader of the Redshirts--seen above--would fit...I mean, if the cowboys were the ones from the village people....)

Carlos was looking for a scorecard for the various players for the readership rather than trying to type it all up himself. The most concise one he found was here. More in-depth profiles can be found on the BBC site.

There's no real irony, despite the reportage, that the "Red Shirt" supporters of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra are using the same tactics that were used against Thaksin when he was in office. Good tactics is good tactics. Enlisting the aid of taxi drivers to block roads, pushing mass amounts of people to clog the airport, all great protest tactics. State of emergency has been declared, and the military is out firing weapons in the air. Tensions are, needless to say, very high, and a little slip could really push the situation over the top. The declaration is probably necessary (the Royal Thai Police do not have the manpower to deal with this size of protests), and more importantly, the Thai Police have had even *less* training on quelling riots than the military (though this has been shifting).

The regional and international implications are big here. Beyond the actual meetings, the ASEAN Summits have always been (attempted) showcases for the host country. With the turmoil in Thailand the last three years, this was going to be a big deal. This meeting was also meant to take advantage of the relatively good press of the G-20 summit The heads of government of 10+ countries (not just ASEAN members, but major dialogue partners Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand)getting run out of town isn't the best tourism/commerce campaign.

Whether Thaksin himself is orchestrating the Redshirt protests to destabilize the current government is interesting, but in the end is not critical. Thailand's internal stability holds larger ramifications and while the Abhisit government currently has the military's support, increasing chaos could see that change.

Carlos cannot say this "obscures" the problem of tensions in the South, but the Pattani movement over the last 4-5 years has been showing increasing levels of violence. Many in Thailand (government officials and others) had blamed Thaksin while he as PM for stirring tensions in the South for political purposes. True or not (the Pattani movement obviously predates Thaksin), he hasn't been the only player. Regional groups like Jemaah Islamiyah have long wanted a tie-in to the Southern Thailand issue, and their influence may be growing there (see the International Crisis Group reports on Southern Thailand--the website is currently down or flooded with requests (Carlos suspects the latter)--I'll re-edit later with links). With the Thai government having to deal with the protests, efforts to deal with the South will inevitably be on the backburner. The long-term impacts of this unfortunate fact could (will) be troubling.

EDIT: ICG site is still down, but the links are in a previous post here. I suspect that a more current ICG report will be hitting their site very soon.

Carlos has long wondered about the differences in the virulence of two different insurgencies in Southeast Asia. One in the Southern Philippines, the other in Southern Thailand. Not being one for monocausal arguments, there are many factors that have been raised to explain the differences.

1. Buddhism vs. Catholicism as a major religion and its associated tensions with Islam.

2. The role of a King who is above politics, but has moral authority and a true bully pulpit. (The King of Thailand isn't necessarily respected in the South, where part of the claims for separation rest on separate kingdoms, but could the King's position in the rest of Thai society be a factor in societal relations in the South?)

3. Income differentials for the regions, as well as connection between the "haves" and whatever particular section of society.

4. Role of the Afghanistan experience? Many Filipinos fought against the Soviets, and I cannot say there were no Thais in that fight, I cannot on the other hand think of any off the top of my head. (This, though, isn't really an explanation, but simply an expression of the same phenomenon--why the Southern Philippines fighters have transnational connections and less so with the Southern Thais).

So there continue to be differences, but there may be unfortunate inroads (so far, only tactical) from transnational influences into Southern Thailand. Recent bomb attacks show a shift in targeting (not to mention the simple tactic of the car bomb itself) towards first responders and increasing casualty counts. This is certainly a troubling development, given the recent reports by the International Crisis Group (Carlos' favorite place for current SE Asia information and analysis, incidentally) that there have been advances for the government in the South.

The ICG report also notes that these advances due to shifts in the application of military power will not (statement of the obvious to follow) address the more fundamental grievances of the insurgents.

The Thai government is currently distracted from this issue due to more pressing concerns closer to home, as the current PM is facing (literally outside his door) a massive popular protest. (Again in some contradistinction to the Philippines, there is something about "revolutions" in Thailand that are different).

ASIDE: To add on to Rivers' post above, Carlos remembers a quick stopover in Bangkok, during which there was a massive protest over (I think) government salaries being cut. The mass of people made the terrible traffic in Bangkok even worse, but it cleared out when the protesters left for the weekend. They would be coming back Monday.

ASIDE 2: The food vendors in SE Asia are the creators of some of the greatest cuisine known to humanity, and one should always partake whenever possible. They are also some of the best HUMINT in the region. When they are not in an area that they usually populate, be wary; when they arrive in even greater numbers than one usually sees, this is either: (1) a Festival (which you can confirm with a calendar and newspaper) or (2)a massive protest is coming.

Samak Sundaravej, the current Thai PM is under fire for being a proxy of the previous one, the billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was under investigation for multiple corruption charges when he fled the country. Thaksin and Samak remain quite popular in the outskirts of the country, but definitely have their share of enemies among the urban population and "traditional elite" in and around the capital.

Yeah, I don't know of any other country that has a situation like that (/sarcasm)

While the protesters generally agree Samak should go, asking who will or should replace him is to open up a whole host of questions. Many anti-Thaksin folks believed he stirred up the problems in the South for political advantage (fat lot of good that did him), but with this ongoing turmoil, any advances that might be made in the South are almost sure to be lost.