Center for a New American Security

I'll be on planes, trains and automobiles all day with the 42nd Most Powerful Man in Washington, pretty much harassing him the entire time, so I will not post anything today. You, though, should take the opportunity to read the Dexter Filkins profile of Stan McChrystal in this weekend's New York Times Magazine as well as Londonstani's post below from Pakistan.

Here's a question for the class: is the Iraq War still a counter-insurgency? Not too long ago, a very smart friend of this blog with years of experience in Iraq since 2003 wrote that Iraq was not merely an insurgency but a competition for power and resources.

That's the phrase Abu Muqawama had in his head watching Basra go up in flames last week, and that's also the phrase he had in mind as he read this op-ed in Sunday's New York Times by Anthony Cordesman:

EVEN if American and Iraqi forces are able to eliminate Al Qaeda in Iraq, there are still three worrisome possibilities of new forms of fighting that could divide Iraq and deny the United States any form of “victory.”

One is that the Sunni tribes and militias that have been cooperating with the Americans could turn against the central government. The second is that the struggle among Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and other ethnic groups to control territory in the north could lead to fighting in Kirkuk, Mosul or other areas.

The third risk — and one that is now all too real — is that the political struggle between the dominant Shiite parties could become an armed conflict.

Cordesman goes on to write, of the fighting in Basra, that...

There are good reasons for the central government to reassert control of Basra. It is not peaceful. It is the key to Iraq’s oil exports. Gang rule is no substitute for legitimate government. But given the timing and tactics, it is far from clear that this offensive is meant to serve the nation’s interest as opposed to those of the Islamic Supreme Council and Dawa.

A few thoughts: One, the fighting in Basra and Baghdad is, on one level, about asserting the control of the central government. That is a good thing. But two, on another level, the fighting that took place last week was about ISCI trying to set the stage for this fall's provincial elections. It wasn't about the central government versus local authorities at all -- it was about cold-blooded intra-Shia politics.

Do we have a dog in such a fight? Alas, we do. That dog's name is ISCI. As the same friend mentioned above has noted, historians studying Iraq decades from now will wonder why the United States allied itself with the Iran-backed ISCI instead of the popularly-supported Sadr movement. (Hint to those historians: it's because they dress well and speak English. This is what happens when you send smart but young Republican loyalists -- who only speak English -- to help run the CPA in Baghdad.) Once again, we have backed the loser:

American military and civilian officials were candid in telling me that the governors and other local officials installed by the central government in Basra and elsewhere in southern Iraq had no popular base. If open local and provincial elections were held, they said, Dawa and the Islamic Supreme Council were likely to be routed because they were seen as having failed to bring development and government services.

So where does this leave us? Well, on the ground, we should stick to FM 3-24 -- and Abu Muqawama isn't just saying that because if there was nothing "COIN" about this war he couldn't write about it anymore. No, the maxim employed by then-Major General James Mattis and his Marines in 2004 and stolen from some Greek guy -- first, do no harm -- is a good one. Keep doing the kind of population-centric COIN outlined in FM 3-24, boys, because if nothing else, it's not going to make the situation worse.

But tactics only get you so far. If the strategy isn't sorted, the tactics can be world-beating stuff and still fail. (Charlie's favorite historical example: Germany in WWII.) So politicians in Washington better get their act together and sort out the big picture. On the one hand, the president and his policy-makers need to decide at what point these intra-Iraqi political disputes become none of our business. Why should U.S. soldiers and Marines die so some fat Iraqi politician can have a greater share of the oil revenues? And folks in the opposition -- including all the presidential campaigns (you too, McCain) and Congress -- need to start prodding the president along by asking the tough, critical questions about the decisions we're making. What is our responsibility to the central government? How can we avoid allowing our soldiers to be the shock troops for the ruling party who is nervous about an election defeat in the fall? And finally, echoing a question then-Major General David Petraeus asked a Washington Post journalist on the eve of the war, how does this all end?

Update: One a lighter note, The Bateman has been watching those videos of Kansas basketball fans and has revised his opinions of Western culture, the war in Iraq, and Jaish al-Mahdi:

Heretofore he has made what he thought were valid, if broad, observations about the nature of Western culture. These were observations generally set in contrast to the state and nature of, for example, seemingly "extreme" cultures which derived the value of individuals from concepts of "honor." The theory was that "Islam" was not at the core of issues, but the misunderstanding of multiple "honor cultures" might be at the root. The killing of those without "honor" being a central element. These are concepts of human behavior which had, more or less, died off in the late 19th century in North America and most of Europe. It has, after all, been some 200 years since members of the President's cabinet shot at each other with pistols and the intent to kill. The death knell of this cultural trend, The Bateman believed, came twixt WWI and WWII.

Prompted by curiosity stemming from Charlie's apparent behavior (since he doesn't follow many sports), The Bateman has now seen the YouTube videos of Kansas fans.

His hypothesis is now shattered. JAM should dream of such fanaticism as the Kansas fans display.

Abu Muqawama will be cheering for UNC for the first time in his life next weekend.

...and says,

1) "The Jayhawks are a lock for the Final Four,"or
2) "I'm sure you dissertation will turn out fine"

will be kicked in the teeth.

Don't you people understand how jinxes work?!?

That is all.

Update: Ok. One down. [Jumps up and down, does victory lap around the office, is grateful no one works at CNAS on Sundays.]
Rock f*cking Chalk.



Now: death to the dissertation!

It's a Thursday in March, and that means basketball! As mentioned previously, AM has suspended trash-talking on account of having his ass handed to him in the first two rounds (that's what happens when you pick all the top seeds and there are TWO 12-13 match-ups in the second round). But Charlie, and her dad, took it on the chin for putting K-State and Pitt through to the Sweet 16; and Tennessee seems to have mysteriously survived.

So despite Charlie's significant lead in points, at the beginning of Rd 3, we all have about the same number of active teams...though Davidson's amazing upset (17 points down!) of the miserable Hoyas has deprived AM of a key Final Four pick. Charlie and her Dad still have 4 of 4, but he has foolishly picked Stanford over Texas in tomorrow night's match-up. It ain't over yet!

Vols and Traitorous Tarheels play tonight; Hawks play tomorrow (which Charlie will miss because of some ridiculous event known as "Mess Night"). Can she be fined for checking scores on her cell phone?

We now return you to your regularly scheduled assault on the Mahdi Army....

Those of you stopping by for some March Madness trash talking will have to look elsewhere. AM says we have "serious" things to talk about. (This after telling Charlie not to post over the weekend even though the EVIL DOOKIES LOST!) Maybe he just doesn't want to be reminded that Charlie is kicking his ass.

Update: AM here. Sadly, what Charlie says is true. Getting smacked around in the NCAA pool and haven't even gotten a chance to watch a game yet! But Abu Muqawama did watch ManUtd-Liverpool and Arsenal-Chelsea yesterday. Sat on his a$$ in an East London pub for a good four hours. Pretty sad way to spend an Easter, but what games!

The first two days of March Madness are the two greatest days in all of sports. Charlie brokers no dissent on this issue. Though to be fair, Charlie isn't inclined to tolerate dissent on much of anything these days...AM and The Bateman have both been on the receiving end of one if not both barrels of her email ire.

But she digresses!

Nothing cheers her up like basketball and trash-talking (except maybe shoe shopping). Abu Muqawama's boring / vanilla / milqtoast / conventional picks has one--count 'em one--first round upset. Way to go out on a limb with Kentucky over Marquette, champ. On the other hand, Charlie's outlandish / chunkey monkey / wreckless / hybrid picks display the same winsome bad judgment she applies to most other aspects of her life. (Why not put Davidson and K-State through to the Sweet 16? Surely Southern Alabama can take down Tennessee in Birmingham. We get bonus points for upsets, right?) Sure, AM will probably win; but Charlie will have way more fun.

You've got less than 3 hours to make your own seat-of-your-pants picks. (WaPo doesn't do groups or pools, but everyone's brackets are public...and it's wicked easy to do.) Leave your profile name in the comments for personalized trash talking.

Update: Charlie's dad is on board for the big win! And he doesn't have any love for Tennessee either. His Pitt-Stanford Elite 8 pairing is bold to say the least, though perhaps not as gutsy as Siena knocking off Vandy.

[hums quietly: it's the most wonderful time...of the year!]

Here's this week's highlights; stick around for some roundball trash talking in the weeks to come. (Sorry about that whole Arkansas loss, AM. Hope you enjoy being UNC's 2 seed.)

Monday: Democracy or Musharraf

Tuesday: Extra! Extra! Cowardly peace-monger retires

Wednesday: McCain and EADS

Thursday: Brigades Can't Be Advisors

Friday: Falling Towers of Babble (nice pun, Kip)

Saturday: [crickets chirping...] (Go watch the Marines in Berkeley again)

Sunday: Olympic Hurdles (and! a new book club entry from Tom Ricks)

Keep your eyes peeled for AM's after-action on last week's COIN boondoggle. Charlie remains in her Fortress of Solitude for the foreseeable future.