Center for a New American Security

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will unveil its much anticipated climate bill today, the Washington Post reports. The bill will mandate significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while “setting a limit on the cost of carbon allowances.”

At least one environmental analyst is skeptical of the U.S. State Department's new food security initiative, The New York Times reports. Meanwhile, the Guardian discusses the International Food Policy Research Institute's new report which finds that climate change will dramatically reduce food supplies in developing countries.

According to The New York Times Green Inc. blog, an 800 million barrel oil discovery in Uganda has brought both opportunity and conflict to the country.

Yesterday we noted that China is competing with other countries to tap new Nigerian oil sources. But the Financial Times reports that the Nigerian resistance group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), known for sabotaging oil projects, has a problem with China's intentions and could result in increased violence in the region.

Finally, The New York Times reports that alternative energy projects may create a huge demand for water, which could increase tensions and ignite disputes in drought-prone regions like the American Southwest.

The Natural Security team has been very interested in critical minerals recently, and in the months to come we’re planning to look deeper into how minerals relate to U.S. national security. As part of our exploration, and hopefully because it informs blog readers like yourself, we will periodically take a good hard look at a particular mineral and issues related to its use and extraction. This week’s mineral of choice is lithium.

Recent reports of China’s corner on current production of rare earth minerals have caused quite a stir. In the recent proliferation of authors and institutes looking at U.S. mineral dependencies, it’s no longer just natural security geeks who have taken notice; the coverage has been widespread and mainstream.

With that in mind, today I’m looking at the second article in a three part series published in The New Yorker by Richard J. Barnet. The articles were excerpted from his book, The Lean Years, which examined the worldwide status of natural resources.  A few weeks back, my colleague Mike “Ninja” McCarthy did a great review of the first essay, “The World’s Resources I- The Lean Years” that looked at “non-human energy sources.” The second part in the series, published on March 31, 1980, “The World’s Resources II- Minerals, Food, and Water” (subscription required), focused on the three distinct areas mentioned in its title. Although all sections of his essay are important and are clearly interrelated, I have chosen to look mostly at his first section on minerals, which echoes his own analytical focus in the essay.

A severe drought-induced dust storm smothered eastern Australia on Wednesday, September 23, 2009, stretching from northern Queensland all the way to the southern tip. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News, the dust storm originated in abandoned agriculture fields that have not been planted on since the beginning of a multi-year drought. ABC News reported that the storm was the worst in 70 years and led to canceled flights, traffic collisions, respiratory health issues, and prevented firefighting operations near Brisbane where 20 wildfires rage on. According to the New Zealand Herald, Wednesday's dust storm even crossed the 2,160 kilometres Tasman Sea and fell on Auckland on Friday. Officials in Sydney warned that the city could face a second dust storm over the next several days.

As climate change exacerbates drought conditions, dust storms may become more severe and leave more communities susceptible to disruptions. For example, local communities in California have experienced drought-induced dust storms in the past. Worsening drought in California could increase the frequency and intensity of dust storms there.

Photo: Dust over eastern Australian. Courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

With the opening of the Arctic and alternating droughts and floods across Africa, it may not seem like recent reports of poor hop and grape yields are major security concerns. But for the armed services, traditions and rituals are a major part of life. The same is arguably true of security and foreign policy leaders throughout U.S. history (for an in-depth review see the 1980 article “Leadership and Alcohol” by Hung L'Etang).

“Pacific Gas and Electric considers climate change to be among the most serious issues ever for our company, our country, and the world.”

With those words, Peter Darbee, the Chairman, CEO, and President of Pacific Gas and Electric canceled his company’s membership in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In no uncertain terms, Darbee rejected the Chamber’s attempt to relitigate the scientific consensus about climate change. And I do mean relitigate – the Chamber has proposed that the EPA submit to a public “trial” on the science of climate change. Seriously.

It’s really encouraging that businesses, such as PG&E, are dispensing with such nonsense. As Darbee put it, the locus of the debate needs to shift to how to deal with climate change – “in our view, an intellectually honest argument over the best policy response to the challenges of climate change is one thing; disingenuous attempts to diminish or distort the reality of these challenges are quite another.”

• There was a flurry of activity at the UN as President Obama delivered a major speech on climate change, and many countries outlined plans for combating climate change not quite as ambitious as previously expected (a story reported by most everyone).
• UPI reports on a meeting between Secretary Clinton and the President of Turkmenistan on that countrys strategic place in the regions energy security, specifically in the development of new oil pipelines.
• Food security for IDPs in the Philippines is playing an important role in the government reaching a peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the Integrated Regional Information Networks reports.
• A serious shortage of tantalum, a rare earth mineral mainly mined in the DRC and Rwanda, may occur in the coming years, Mineweb reports.
• BBC reports on the dangers of flooding that millions face as river deltas sink.

• The Christian Science Monitor reports that the Department of Transportation has studied the effects of climate change on air traffic, but we wonder if the Navy has considered this with regard to its aircraft carriers. Aircraft require longer distances to take off in warmer weather, and airports have had to cancel flights during especially hot summers.
• Locals in Iraq's Wasit province remain unhappy with a nearby Chinese oil drilling project. According to the BBC, several acts of sabotage have occurred at the site since The New York Times reported on this unrest two weeks ago, and American forces are also occasionally patrolling the area.
• In a country plagued by drought, U.S. soldiers in Iraq are helping Iraqi soldiers improve their water purification techniques, according to Multi-National Force Iraq.
• The New York Times reports that global carbon emissions have dropped significantly since the global recession began last year.
• Newsweek reports on the latest trade dispute between the United States and China, noting that it's probably more about rare earth metals than tires and chicken.

• Confronted by a weak national energy grid, soldiers in Iraq are turning to alternative energy sources to power medical clinics in an effort to greatly increase their hours of operation.  
• Following the death of Nobel Prize winner Dr. Norman Borlaug, the Sunday New York Times profiles food security and points to drought as one of the primary causes of global food scarcity.
• Stars and Stripes reports increased pressure on the new Japanese government to enforce better environmental stewardship from the U.S. military by cleaning up environmental damage at its bases on Okinawa before the property is returned in the future.
• After receiving criticism for purchasing cassiterite from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Amalgamated Metal Corporation, a British-based company, halted all purchases, Business Report explains.
• The Kurdish Globe reports concerns about Kurdistan’s water security and the political influence it gives Iran.
• Finally, The Onion discovered that hundreds of oceanic lairs in the arctic are being revealed as the ice melts.

This week, several Natural Security news items explored the operational and strategic challenges that the U.S. military will face as climate change progresses. Much attention was given to the High North as The New York Times discussed concerns over a warming Arctic, which will change the future operating and strategic environments by opening new sea lanes and allowing access to untapped natural resources. The Times reported on the first of many commercial voyages being made through the new, ice-free northern passage. Two German ships are also traveling from South Korea to Rotterdam, traversing the arctic and shaving off thousands of miles from their usual trade route through the Suez Canal.

• Todd Stern, the State Department’s Chief Climate Negotiator, has expressed concern that delaying climate change legislation in Congress will slow or stall negotiations in Copenhagen in December, Scientific American reports.
• The Los Angeles Times finds that biotech companies are exploring ways to release oil trapped in algae as a way to produce affordable biofuel.
• Forbes examines the potential political and economic benefits China will reap from its new solar project in Mongolia.
• The new National Intelligence Strategy looks at the need for the intelligence community to improve coordination on climate change, the San Francisco Chronicle reports. 
• BBC reports on negotiations between Iran and India to create a new transnational gas pipeline between Iran, Pakistan, and India that could improve regional security.

• Poorly-located wells in Khost Province, Afghanistan, originally built by well-meaning NGOs, have had negative impacts on irrigation for local farmers, according to Stars and Stripes.
• Scientific American has taken notice of the Navy’s proposals to test fuels made from algae and other sources.
• Reuters reports on one Canadian company's plans to explore mining for rare earth elements—in Norway, oddly enough—in partnership with the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp.
• Improved lithium batteries may be able to store energy more efficiently, powering cars and easing the transportation sector off its reliance on oil, according to The New York Times. As the Natural Security team has noted, however, this may be a case of trading one dependency for another.
• On the other coast, the San Francisco Chronicle reports that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed an executive order mandating a renewable portfolio of 1/3 of the energy sold by utilities within the state.