Center for a New American Security

With Friday's forecast calling for twenty inches of the white stuff, to be followed shortly thereafter by a chance of Four Horsemen, there was only one thing I could think of that would compliment DC's Snopocalyptic impending doom: attend a presentation on the U.S. Navy's strategic interests and game plan—not being a sports fan myself, that's pretty much the only Superbowl reference you'll get—for the Arctic. The Arctic Roadmap event was hosted by fellow D.C. think tank, the Stimson Center.

Beginning with a short talk by Director of Task Force Climate Change, Rear Admiral David Titley, the event then followed with a panel discussion with Caitlyn Antrim of the Rule of Law Committee for the Oceans (a joint host of the event), John Bellinger, former State Department  Legal Adviser, Major General Richard  Engel, USAF (ret.), Director, Climate Change and State Stability Program in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Amit Pandya from the Stimson Center.

Here are my main takeaways from Real Admiral Titley's talk:

• The Arctic contains up to 25% of undiscovered petroleum resources, in addition to immense     caches of minerals including copper, cobalt, gold and zinc.
• The Arctic Roadmap is available online for all to read.
• “Roadmap” is just an en-vogue term for “strategy.”
• In 30 years, the Arctic may experience its first fully ice-free summer.
• The officers that will have to navigate the turmoil of an ice-free Arctic are already enlisted (in other words, that’s how short the timeframe is we’re dealing with).
• Shippers need at least eight weeks of no ice to navigate the Northwest Passage, which won’t be seen for another 40 years. Even then shippers might not use it, as they are more concerned with reliability than speed. The Arctic is anything but reliable.

The panel discussed many topics, from the need for Russia to build a more reliable northern naval force to sustainable energy for indigenous Arctic populations. It was during John Bellinger's commentary that the topic which seemed to have captivated both the audience and the rest of the panel members emerged, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  Bellinger, while serving as a State Department legal adviser under the Bush Administration (W. that is), found himself working hard to bring UNCLOS to a top priority. His story brought many questions as to why the United States has not yet ratified UNCLOS, which all the panelists agreed is a solid and timeless codified set of laws, which are every bit as relevant today as the day they were penned. 

When asked why it is not yet ratified, most panelists came back with a somewhat dissatisfying commentary on how Republicans, both officials and constituents, are keeping it from being fully accepted. Bellinger pointed to groups similar to the fictitious Concerned Farmers of Kansas, who fill Senatorial mailbags with cries of how UNCLOS will ruin America, while Caitlyn Antrim leaned more on the idea that conservatives were holding it back, not the Republicans per se, which sounded specific without actually being so.

Ultimately, what I took away from the commentary was that UNCLOS provides all the necessary information and guidelines the United States needs to effectively mitigate maritime issues in the face of climate change in the Arctic.  However, by not being full supporters of the document, the United States can relieve itself from the burden of unfavorable responsibilities and rights that the document eludes too as well. As always, there are pros and cons to international treaty ratification.

In leaving the event, I found that I had a better understanding and confidence in the United States Navy's approach to the Arctic, and I found a D.C. that had not yet devolved into primal state of Pleistocene heathenism. Saturday would be another issue all together.