Center for a New American Security

Today I was moderating a panel and facilitating a working session on energy, climate change & security, so I haven’t yet seen or heard a single reaction to the president’s speech this afternoon on energy or the subsequent "Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future." So I’m going to give you my quick impressions from a blank slate, just reading the documen

• According to The New York Times Green blog, Brazil may start importing ethanol from the United States as more Brazilian farmers are producing sugar from their cane instead of ethanol.
• The European Commission unveiled a future transportation plan that aims to eliminate all petrol- and diesel-driven cars from major European cities by 2050, The Telegraph reports.   
• The International Monetary Fund doubts that Iraq’s long-term oil production projections, which account for 90 percent of the country’s revenue, are attainable, according to Agence France Presse.
• Over at Bloomberg, China and India may increase their share of global nuclear power sevenfold by 2030. 
• Finally, The Washington Post reports that President Obama is expected to lay out his vision for the country’s energy security that will call for reducing oil imports by one-third by 2020 when he speaks at Georgetown University later today.

• Zimbabwe has set a late September deadline by which time all foreign mining companies must sell off their majority stakes in the country’s mines to locals, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• According to Bloomberg, China is aiming to decrease its energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions by 4 percent this year.  
• A new study finds that over a billion urban citizens will face severe water shortages by 2050, Agence France Presse reports.
• Indonesian energy companies warned on Monday that political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa could upset the country’s energy supplies, according to United Press International.
• Finally, Michael Gerson, writing in The Washington Post, argues that China’s investment in Africa is good for China and African rulers but bad for the African people.

President Obama and his family spent most of the week in Latin America. The president first visited Brazil where he had three days of meetings with Brazilin President Dilma Rousseff; discussions focused on a wide range of issues, including energy cooperation. According to a joint statement released by the White House, President Obama said that the “United States seeks to be a Strategic Energy Partner of Brazil.” The presidents in the joint statement also praised a number of green energy initiatives already underway and stated that both “agreed on the importance of a green economy in the context of sustainable development as a means for generating economic growth, creating decent jobs, eradicating poverty and protecting the environment.”

The United States and Brazil also launched the “Partnership for the Development of Aviation Bio-fuels” during the visit. This agreement builds on the Memorandum of Understanding to Advance Cooperation on Bio-fuels that was signed in March 2007. Besides pledging to increase cooperation in the development of aviation bio-fuels, the new partnership plans “To coordinate efforts towards the establishment of common standards and specifications for aviation bio-fuels.” This follows one of the recommendations in the CNAS report “Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department for a Post-Petroleum Era,” where Christine Parthemore and John Nagl urged DOD to “promote adoption of shared technical standards and directly influence the energy systems used by its allies.”

Photo: The Obama family is greeted by Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota after arriving at the Palacio do Alvorada in the Brazilian capital on March 19, 2011. Courtesy of Pete Souza and the White House. 

If there is one thing we should be able to agree on this week, it’s that tsunami early warning systems are a good investment. A few weeks back we began examining how the pending federal belt-tightening may affect how the government addresses natural security concerns.

Join CNAS tomorrow night to help support our Japanese friends in the wake of the devastating 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck the island nation on March 11, 2011.

CNAS is pleased to serve as a member of the Host Committee for the upcoming benefit "One Night for Nippon: A Benefit for the American Red Cross Response to the Japan Earthquake & Pacific Tsunami."  The fundraiser will be held at L2 Lounge in Georgetown and tickets are 25 dollars and can be purchased at the door.

100 percent tax-deductible donations above 25 dollars are encouraged. Present cash or checks payable to American Red Cross Japan Response upon entry.

L2 is located at 3315 Cady's Alley NW. Valet parking is available by entering Cady’s Alley via 34^th & M Street. Proper attire required.

Individual and corporate sponsors are still needed for matching donations.  Contact Margarita Noriega at 202.361.7172 to become a member of the Sponsor & Host Committee. 

We hope to see you there.

You can help people affected by disasters like the Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami, as well as countless crises at home and around the world, by making a donation to support American Red Cross Disaster Relief.  Your gift enables the Red Cross to prepare for and provide shelter, food, emotional support and other assistance in response to disasters. The American Red Cross name is used with its permission, which in no way constitutes an endorsement, express or implied, of any product, service, company, individual or political position.  You also agree to include the following contact information on all Materials:  For more information about the American Red Cross, please call 1-800-HELP-NOW or email info@usa.redcross.org.

Artwork courtesy of Don Patron, a Cherry Blossom Festival artist.

• Italy’s government is planning on suspending the construction of nuclear power plants for one year, according to Reuters.
• Also from Reuters, the Senate Energy and Natural Resource Committee is seeking public input in crafting a new clean energy bill.
• Iraq’s agricultural minister said the government will offer incentives to get local farmers to increase their grain production with the goal of making the country self-sufficient by 2014, according to United Press International. 
• Over at the Wall Street Journal, South Korea continues to announce major foreign energy deals this week.
• Finally, Bloomberg reports that Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, plans on reducing its rice production and exports in order to combat a pest problem.

As Christine discussed in the new CNAS policy brief on Japan, the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear facilities may have ramifications for the future of nuclear energy worldwide.  The question on everyone’s mind is whether events in Japan will turn back the purported “nuclear renaissance” of recent years.

The results, so far, are mixed. Many countries have already stated their intended positions: slowing the nuclear power advance; those who are reviewing their nuclear goals; and those seeming to continue full speed ahead.

In the first category, a few countries have already vowed to scale back nuclear energy programs significantly. Leading among them is Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel called for a “measured exit” from the nuclear energy field, pledging to redouble the country’s efforts to develop renewable energy sources to compensate for the lost power generation. In addition, she temporarily shut down the country’s seven oldest reactors and decided to reassess whether to extend the lives of Germany’s remaining reactors. However, some have argued that Chancellor Merkel’s strong anti-nuclear stance is merely political positioning (given already low public opinion on her decision last fall to extend the reactor permits) and will be reversed in short order once public anxiety over the issue rescinds. 

The death toll in Japan reached more than 8,000 on Sunday, with another 12,000 still missing since the devastating 9.0 earthquake and tsunami struck the island nation’s northeastern communities ten days ago. Power was partially restored to Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant, the site of one of the worst nuclear crises since the Chernobyl nuclear power disaster in 1986. According to The Los Angeles Times, workers at the plant were able to reconnect two of the reactors to the power grid, offering hope that the facility’s cooling system could be restored to stave off continued overheating in the damaged reactors. And though progress has been made, it was not overstated. Indeed, experts cautioned that there was still much to be done. The Associated Press reported on Sunday: “Still, serious problems remained at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex. Pressure unexpectedly rose in a third unit's reactor, meaning plant operators may need to deliberately release radioactive steam.”

Just as progress was being made to contain the nuclear crisis, concerns were raised about nuclear contamination as radiation was detected in food stocks many miles away. “The government said it had found higher than normal levels of radioactivity in spinach and milk at farms up to 90 miles away from the plants, the first confirmation that the unfolding nuclear crisis has affected the nation’s food supply,” The New York Times reported on Sunday. “Minuscule amounts of radioactive iodine were also detected in the water supply in Tokyo and its five surrounding prefectures. In Tokyo, about 170 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi plant, the level was less than 1 percent of that considered dangerous by the government. In Fukushima city, about 50 miles from the power plant, the levels were still below half of the legal limit.”

The world’s attention this week was focused on the relief efforts in Japan following the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and massive tsunami there last Friday. By Wednesday, the official death toll had topped 4,000, with more than eight thousand still missing, according to the Government of Japan.  The disaster is estimated to have cost Japan’s economy between 125 to 200 billion dollars. In addition, the earthquake set off a serious nuclear crisis that that has yet to be resolved.

Some positive news coming out of Japan this week was the huge outpouring of international aid the nation received following the disaster. According to Reuters, 113 countries and 24 international organizations had offered to assist in the recovery efforts. Private companies like Google were also using their resources to assist those in need throughout the affected area.  The United States has helped lead these efforts with the Defense Department allocating 35 million dollars to Operation Tomodachi and USAID giving an additional 8 million dollars; both DOD and USAID have participated in a range of humanitarian and disaster relief support, including by providing search and rescue and heavy lift capability, delivering food and water, as well as deploying teams to assist with Japan’s ongoing nuclear crisis.    

Photo: Naval Air Crewman 3rd Class Seth Eslin gives cases of water to Japanese citizens during a humanitarian assistance mission. Courtesy of Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dylan McCord and the U.S. Navy.

The world’s focus since last Friday has rightly been on the post-earthquake efforts in Japan. For the past few days, most attention has been directed to the troubling situation at Japan’s nuclear power stations. While we have been closely monitoring that situation, we have also been curious about the food situation which appears to be getting far less attention – at least here in the United States – but seems just as urgent.

Here is some useful information that I was able to dig up. First, the Japanese government has been closely monitoring the food situation. Much of the work in securing and distributing adequate food supplies is being coordinated by the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). MAFF set up the Earthquake Disaster Countermeasures Headquarters to deal with the crisis which has held nine meetings since the disaster, according to the briefing summaries of each meeting that were released on their website.

Yesterday, the Wilson Center held a book launch for The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security with author Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba.  Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Forces Kathleen Hicks joined the conversation as a discussant and  Geoff Dabelko, director of the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center, moderated it.  

The overarching theme of the day was that demographics alone don’t determine the fate of nations, but they do play a role in nearly every aspect of state policy. As Professor Sciubba put it, “Demography is neither a force for good or bad; it depends on the government’s ability to handle it.” The purpose of Sciubba’s book was to introduce a framework to help understand the broad indeterminate nature of demographics, and how policy issues should consider demographic trends. Indeed, her presentation yesterday followed this format.

Sciubba laid out three characteristics that demographics may portend for a state: they can be an indicator of challenges or opportunities; a multiplier of conflict or progress; or a resource for power and prosperity. She used a variety of global issues to demonstrate how these worked. One particularly notable one was the “youth bulge” – that is, where the largest demographic of a society lies between the ages of 15-29. According to Sciubba, the presence of a youth bulge in several Middle East and North African states is viewed both as an indicator and a multiplier of the challenges linked with the recent unrest in the region. For example, that 43 percent of Tunisia’s adult population is between the ages of 15-29 was an indication of the challenges the government needed to address, such as curtailing unemployment. When the government failed to address these challenges, the large youth population had a multiplying effect on the instability associated with corrupt governance and economic mismanagement.