Center for a New American Security

Yesterday, the Wilson Center held a book launch for The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security with author Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba.  Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Forces Kathleen Hicks joined the conversation as a discussant and  Geoff Dabelko, director of the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center, moderated it.  

The overarching theme of the day was that demographics alone don’t determine the fate of nations, but they do play a role in nearly every aspect of state policy. As Professor Sciubba put it, “Demography is neither a force for good or bad; it depends on the government’s ability to handle it.” The purpose of Sciubba’s book was to introduce a framework to help understand the broad indeterminate nature of demographics, and how policy issues should consider demographic trends. Indeed, her presentation yesterday followed this format.

Sciubba laid out three characteristics that demographics may portend for a state: they can be an indicator of challenges or opportunities; a multiplier of conflict or progress; or a resource for power and prosperity. She used a variety of global issues to demonstrate how these worked. One particularly notable one was the “youth bulge” – that is, where the largest demographic of a society lies between the ages of 15-29. According to Sciubba, the presence of a youth bulge in several Middle East and North African states is viewed both as an indicator and a multiplier of the challenges linked with the recent unrest in the region. For example, that 43 percent of Tunisia’s adult population is between the ages of 15-29 was an indication of the challenges the government needed to address, such as curtailing unemployment. When the government failed to address these challenges, the large youth population had a multiplying effect on the instability associated with corrupt governance and economic mismanagement.  

Other states facing similar demographic trends have produced the exact opposite outcome, however. Namely, these states have used a growing working age population to strengthen the power of the state. The examples Sciubba used were the many East Asian countries whose growing population helped facilitate rapid economic growth. In these cases, the relatively young population multiplied the effects of efficient economic policies and was used as a resource to increase power.

Keeping with the theme of the day, Deputy Undersecretary Hicks discussed how the wide ranging and indeterminate nature of demographics pose challenges and opportunities for policymakers. The more fruitful part of her discussion focused on the organizational dynamics of U.S. national security community. The challenge demographics posed from an organizational perspective was that the issue itself could fall through the cracks given that many national security practitioners are not likely to focus solely on demographics (although Scuibba formerly worked with DOD on demographic issues), despite the fact that many policy decisions would be better served by a better understanding of demographic trends.   At the same time though, because demographics is an issue that “might fall through the cracks” for a number of national security agencies, it may be useful for facilitating interagency dialogues. In particular, because no single agency has a strong stake in or hold on the issue, demographics may be insulated from traditional bureaucratic infighting, as opposed to others issues that cross multiple agency jurisdictions.   

Hicks paid particular attention to the ways in which demographic trends engage DOD’s mission. These mostly focused on challenges it posed for U.S. national security interests, such as the youth bulge in Pakistan, the decreasing population in Russia and the growing Chinese Diaspora in Latin America (though she did mention the increase of educated women in Saudi Arabia as an opportunity there). Hicks’s focus on the challenges seemed to overlook some of the other areas where demographic trends may offer strategic opportunities for the United States.

Sciubba pointed these opportunities out.  She argued that between extremely young countries like Tunisia, and graying populations like those in Europe, there were “transitional” populations such as India, South Africa and Brazil. These emerging powers, Scuibba said, were also located in strategic areas across the globe, and the United States would be served well by their smooth demographic transitions to more stable societies. 

For more on The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security check out Professor’s Scuibba’s blog here or purchase the book online here. If you’re in the DC area, you can also buy a copy at Reiter’s books, located at 1900 G street NW. Professor Scuibba tweets at @profsciubba.