Center for a New American Security

Faced with floods, an exceptionally cold winter, and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, North Korea has issued desperate pleas to the international community for food aid.  Yet the United States, South Korea, Japan and China (which together are responsible for 80% of North Korea’s food aid since 1995) all have significant reasons to refrain from providing the Kim Jung-il regime with any relief. Political considerations and concerns that the food will be diverted to the country’s elite contribute to the reluctance among Washington and its allies. Meanwhile, a severe drought threatening the wheat crop in China could give Beijing pause when it considers how much assistance to dole out to North Korea this year.

The World Food Program (WFP) is currently conducting an assessment of the food crisis in North Korea, which is due to be released next month. Whether the report differs from one released in November of last year, which projected a slight increase for this year’s harvest, it may help address speculation that Pyongyang is exaggerating its need in order to stockpile food in preparation for the planned 2012 celebrations.

However, if recent statements from the United States Department of State are any indication, it is unlikely that Washington will change its current stance of “no access, no food,” regardless of the WFP report’s findings. Although South Korea demonstrated signs of a policy reversal last October, when the government made its first shipment of food aid to North Korea since 2008, the total amount of food was very modest compared to historical trends.

The void left by the United States and South Korea could be filled by China, which has reportedly done just that for the past two years. However, the current drought and the looming food shortages in China will make such a choice all the more costly. This mounting price of propping-up the regime in Pyongyang has contributed to Beijing’s increasing frustration toward the Kim regime, and poses another serious challenge to an already strained relationship.