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Whether it’s the next generation of the PackBot, MedBot or Predator drone, there is little doubt that military robotics will grow exponentially over the next several decades as DOD shapes a new era of modern warfare, as Peter Singer writes in Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century. And if the systems deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan are any indicator, Singer’s science fiction battlefield is fast becoming a battlefield reality.
But with the rapid development of artificial intelligence-based military systems (not to mention new investments in clean energy technology and a more sophisticated telecommunications infrastructure), the United States is increasing its dependence on globally scarce minerals. And though supply shocks, shortage trends, and the complete unavailability of strategic minerals are concerns, the greater worry should be that when it comes to our reliance on critical and strategic minerals to meet our current and future needs, we don’t quite know what we’ll need, when we’ll need it, or if we’ll have it.
The director of the UN’s Food an Agriculture Organization has warned that climate change will likely create an increasing number of food crises across the world over the next 20 years. The Guardian reports on a new paper in Nature Geoscience which says that climate change will also adversely affect the U.S. Gulf Coast, warning that up to 13,500 square kilometers of coastal lands surrounding New Orleans will be underwater by the turn of the century. In other news, the United States has joined the International Renewable Energy Agency, a new organization founded in January. Meanwhile, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar is pushing hard for the development of renewable sources, announcing measures that aim to hasten the development of solar energy projects on federal lands. Finally, a consortium led by BP has accepted a contract to develop the Rumaila oil field in Iraq – the country’s largest – after the contract was rejected by the Exxon Mobil-led consortium which originally won the bidding process.
On Friday, the House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES), but not without considerable effort. Though debates about F-22s and the economic merits of a cap-and-trade system will continue as both bills head to the Senate, it’s worth a moment to take a look at what the legislation could do to improve the natural security of the United States.
Provisions in the House version of the NDAA tackle the problem of greenhouse gas emissions head on. For starters, it authorizes the creation of a Director of Operational Energy, who would report directly to the Secretary of Defense and would review how the Department of Defense might better incorporate carbon-free, renewable fuels into its daily operations and broader strategic posture. The recommendations from the Director of Operational Energy, due no later than February 1, 2010, would address how combatant commanders, the heads of military branches, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff could use algae- and other biomass-based fuels for aviation, maritime, and ground transportation and to more widely power forward operating bases.
The Waxman-Markey climate change bill narrowly passed in the House late, Friday; it now moves to the Senate where it is expected to face greater opposition. The Financial Times profiles the effects of deforestation in Kenya, and how it is leading to decreased water supply, threatening everything from the tourist industry to agriculture. One of the effects of decreasing Artic sea ice may well be the establishment of a new shipping route through the Northwest Passage. However, the New York Times Green Inc. blog warns that use of the Arctic for shipping raises serious environmental concerns. Finally, The Guardian reports that China is investing in the use of algae to absorb carbon emissions.
This week, Afghan and U.S. officials co-hosted the grand opening of Band-e-Amir, Afghanistan’s first national park. The Afghan government’s efforts were funded by both USAID and the Wildlife Conservation Society and open the door for other conservation efforts around the nation. Much of the native flora and fauna in the region are already gone, but steps like these help secure the country’s natural environment – and preserve the biodiversity necessary for agriculture and other livelihoods – as development efforts continue.
Photo: One of the six cascading lakes in Band-e-Amir, Afghanistan. Courtesy of flickr user Carl Montgomery.
This week’s news roundup takes us to U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq, the government is beginning to be forced to deal with issues related to its natural resources as it prepares to exert full control over the country. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s ravaged land is the subject of several positive developments.
In Iraq, Water Resources Minister Abdul-Latif Jamal Rasheed warned that his country faces a potential “agricultural disaster” over the summer due to water shortages. Iraq is in the midst of a drought, and has been for some time now. The other factor in Iraq’s water woes is their upriver neighbor – Turkey – which has numerous dams along the Euphrates River.
In Tuesday’s edition of The Independent, Patrick Cockburn shares his observations on the outlook for Iraq in the coming year, taking a rather dismal view of the country’s future. Of particular interest is his reporting that Iraq, which at one point was forecast to be something of a breadbasket in the region, “has become one of the world’s largest food importers.”
The reason for this: a lack of water.
At our annual conference on June 11, Dr. Peter Gleick, from the Pacific Institute, provided historical examples of instances where water has been tied to or created conflicts, and discussed its potential for doing so in the future. While America’s involvement in Iraq and the current level of conflict there obviously are not due to concerns over water, managing the drought will be an important aspect of any population-centric strategy employed by U.S. forces – even a year ago the Army was speaking of the need to engage with the State Department and USAID to provide more efficient agricultural technologies to the Iraqi people.
UPI describes the role of water in the Mideast peace process following remarks by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who stated that Israel must address the issue of water if peace talks are to happen. The Asia Times reports that water scarcity will also threaten South Asia and China, as 40 percent of the region will face a severe water crisis in 50 years if the Himalayan glaciers continue to melt at their current rate. India also faces a more immediate water threat as officials have warned that this years monsoon rains are likely to be “below normal,” threatening crop failure. Meanwhile, foreign oil companies are on their way back to Iraq, as bidding begins for $16 billion worth of technical service contracts to help develop six oilfields and two natural-gas deposits, according to Bloomberg News.
Last week, we featured a Washington Post article on the critical task of revitalizing Afghanistan’s agricultural economy. Well, the battle continues, and McClatchy reports that the Missouri National Guard’s Agri-Business Development Team is at the forefront. But the challenge is not just overcoming the limitations of soil chemistry and watershed dynamics, important as they are. Indeed, the program also advises Afghanistan’s farmers on what crops are saleable and develops strategies for storing and refrigerating those goods on their way to the marketplace. Stay posted to the Natural Security Blog as we keep you posted on how land use shapes the U.S. mission in Afghanistan.
Congress basically defined global climate change as a national security issue in the Defense Authorization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-181). That Act required the Department of Defense to consider the effects of climate change on facilities, capabilities, missions, and partnerships and alliances, directing the Department to incorporate such concerns into all its strategy and planning documents.
That means that the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, DoD’s premier strategy document, by law will include consideration of climate change for the first time.
According to a recent World Bank report, Russia is not properly prepared to deal with the impacts of climate change, which are likely to affect it more than other European and Central Asian nations, reports Bloomberg News. In the United States, the House of Representatives is prepared to vote on the Waxman-Markey climate change bill this week, according to the New York Times. Reuters reports that President Obama is urging the House to pass the bill, calling it a piece of “historic legislation.” Meanwhile, ongoing violence in the Niger Delta has led Eni to declare a force majeure on exports coming from its Brass terminal.
While we usually talk about critical minerals that are important to the modern economy and for uses in weapons systems and high-tech gear, the June 2009 Scientific American features an article on one critical to the modern food system: phosphorus. In “Phosphorus Famine: The Threat to Our Food Supply,” author David A. Vaccari declares this vital fertilizer ingredient “a geostrategic ticking time bomb.”

Today’s headlines feature several articles exploring the impacts of climate change around the world. The Independent takes a rather dismal view of Iraq’s future, noting that droughts (and the damming of the Euphrates) have reduced the country’s water supply, seriously damaging local agriculture and worsening food security. In South America, The Santiago Times reports that NASA has revealed that the Patagonian glaciers are losing mass at a rather startling rate. Similarly, scientists in Nepal have begun a field study in the Himalayas to examine glacial lakes, which are believed to be growing at an alarming rate due to glacial retreat. At the policy level, The New York Times reports that China’s recent investments in carbon capture technology may play an important role at Copenhagen in December.
Photo: An Iraqi boy gathers water from a well in Najaf, south of Baghdad. Courtesy of flickr user usr.c.
BBC News reports that the UK Environment Agency has warned that flood protection funding needs to double by 2035, as climate change threatens to put one in six British homes at risk of flooding. The Financial Times highlights a town in Ghana on the front lines of the climate change migration issue. The U.S. Air Force is mounting significant opposition to a proposed solar plant near Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. In Afghanistan, on the other hand, alternative energy is being put to extremely productive use, according to the American Forces Press Service. Finally, as many in the United States argue for ramping up nuclear power capabilities as a means of decreasing dependence on foreign oil, Bloomberg News notes that uranium prices have reached a seven-month high.
When our Veep Sharon Burke landed on the term “natural security” when developing this CNAS program late last year, our staff dug around to see how the term has been used in the past. The other cases we found of its use were quite different from the definition we use, and those writings were not directed squarely at the national security community.
Fast forward a few months, and I stumble upon an article, “Natural Security: To Avoid War, We Need New Policies for Managing the Earth’s Resources,” by Hal Harvey, footnoted in a piece on water from the early 1990s. This 1988 gem, from a magazine or journal called Nuclear Times, proved evasive, not to be found in any regular research databases or through basic Googling. Lucky for us, Mr. Harvey’s office was kind enough to scan a hard copy they had on file and email it over to us.

Critical minerals may sound like a new security topic, but as these photographs show, such supplies have always played a major role for the nation. Scrap metal and aluminum drives of the early 1940s took place as a result of mineral shortages before and during the U.S. entrance into World War II. Today, both military and civilian technologies depend on an even wider array of mineralogical resources, some of which exist in no known quantities in the United States. In fact, the National Defense Stockpile reports that of 13 critical or strategic minerals, the United States is fully import dependent on five. In the future, can we expect national collection drives for gallium, tantalum, and indium to support U.S. defense activities, the way previous generations lined up to donate rubber, aluminum, and steel?
As our own Sharon Burke wrote earlier this month in her Natural Security concept paper:
President Obama has stated repeatedly that peace in Afghanistan will be contingent on economic, civic, and political development as much as military successes. A 2009 UNEP report found, however, that most of Afghanistan’s natural resources are severely degraded and that any recovery would depend on restoration of these resources. Achieving U.S. goals in the region may well depend on our ability to tie natural resources into national security.
Today’s Washington Post features a great article by Rajiv Chandrasekaran beginning on page A1 that provides depth to the role of land use issues in both promoting and slowing security-building efforts in Afghanistan. The reporter also sheds some light on the kinds of bureaucratic wrangling that we might expect more of as the administration shifts additional responsibilities for national security to civilian agencies and increases focus on civilian functions.
From Nigeria to outer space, the news this week featured a number of developments highlighting energy security challenges. Shell announced that oil shipments from Nigeria will be disrupted through July due to ongoing violence in the Niger Delta. The good news is that at least one militant leader in the region seems interested in a government amnesty deal, the bad news is the largest militant group doesn’t. Meanwhile, Leonid Fedun, vice president of Lukoil, has publicly stated that Russia should join OPEC, noting that such a development would mean that they “could define the price [of oil] precisely…[and] could decide tomorrow the oil price would be $100 per barrel.” While Robert Lenzer wrote on Forbes.com that such talk is a bit tangential given that oil supply is rapidly declining, this type of attitude has famed Czech playwright Vaclav Havel arguing that Europe should reject Russian energy “blackmail” and completely end its imports of Russian gas. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development likewise continues to support the development of an alternative to Russian gas, which seems especially pertinent given renewed concerns that Gazprom and the Ukrainian government could have yet another go at each other within the next month.
“Could the next war be powered by potatoes?”
So wonders Tina Casey in CleanTechnica, commenting on the U.S. military’s efforts to innovate and integrate alternative energy technology into its major systems. The military is making laudable strides to meet alternative energy benchmarks, with proposals underway through DOD’s Small Business Innovation Research grant program to develop bio-batteries and fuel cells that could use a variety of fuel sources, “from sugar to potatoes, vodka or beer.” And while diversifying its sources for energy is essential for the U.S. military to achieve a sustainable and more efficient energy future, DOD should also be aware of the potential consequences of transitioning to alternatives fuels based on food sources.
Yesterday the White House released a major report (see video) produced by a consortium of 13 federal agencies organized by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, describes the current and future effects of climate change in the American homeland. Here are a few of the key findings:
One of the hardest tasks for a think tank is deciding what not to publish. The CNAS Natural Security Program is a project apart, however, and that’s why we thought this blog would be a good idea.
Generally speaking, research projects, which tend to be multi-month and even multi-year, of necessity have a focal point. A great deal of interesting but not directly germane information can end up on the cutting room floor.
Some of DOD’s most interesting advanced research and development projects have focused on incorporating various energy technologies into a fully operational system – a “Net Zero” forward operating base, as they call the one pictured here. This work showcases how DOD can serve as a national leader in innovation just by working to solve its own energy problems.
Is it really a threat, or just a way to try to get people to pay attention to the environment, by "securitizing" something that isn’t about security? It's a good question, and one that the Center for a New American Security seeks to answer through our new Natural Security program, which we are launching today.