Center for a New American Security

Back in February I had posted an article from Foreign Policy in the daily Natural Security News on the destabilization of Dagestan in Russia’s Northern Caucasus territories, a process which appears to be exacerbated by energy and resource issues. “Historically, violence in Dagestan has stemmed from ongoing conflicts between its major ethnic groups -- the Avars, Dargins, Kumyks, Lezgins, and Laks -- over political power, resources, and jobs.”

It appears that those responsible for the simultaneous bombing of two Russian subway terminals at rush hour are members of separatist insurgencies based in Dagestan and the greater Northern Caucasus, home to natural gas resources vital to Russia. After Russia’s campaign in Chechnya, these insurgents “moved over into the neighboring regions of Dagestan and Ingushetia, where terrorism attacks and assassinations continued,” as TIME put it.

Terrorist acts within Dagestan against energy infrastructure could further destabilize the region. Foreign Policy’s article notes that in November of 2009, insurgent gangs were named as the culprits of a bombing along the Mozdok-Gazimagomed natural gas pipeline, severing service to Dagestan’s capital, Makhachkala.

With President Obama’s trip to Indonesia delayed several times, and tensions there already high, I thought it might be interesting to look at the unique and emerging partnership between the United States and Indonesia in this edition of Top 5. It seems as if a strong partnership between these two countries is just beginning, as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton noted in her address at the Asia Society, February 13, 2009:

The Indonesian Government has . . . suggested the creation of a deeper partnership with the United States. This idea represents a positive approach to areas of common concern, and we are committed to working with Indonesia to pursue such a partnership with a concrete agenda.

So here we go folks. Time to look at five recent and historic partnerships between the United States and Indonesia on natural security issues. In no particular order:

1) 2009: Debt Forgiveness for Environment and Resource Protection

The U.S. provided Indonesia with $30million in debt forgiveness in exchange for efforts to conserve and preserve its own environment and natural resources. This was accomplished though an Indonesian partnership with the United States under the 1998 Tropical Forest Conservation Act (TFCA).

2) 2008: Pirates in the Strait of Malacca

To some, it may seem that piracy, before its recent spike in Somalia, has been relatively nonexistent on the high seas since the days of The Queen Anne’s Revenge, but for those sailing through the Strait of Malacca, it’s been a modern problem for some time now. As discussed in a previous Top 5 post, the Strait of Malacca is a strategic choke point for many international energy resources. Tackling this security challenge in this region is then in the vested interest of not only countries such as Indonesia, but the United States and the entire globe. In light of this, in 2008 “the U.S. provided the Indonesian police with 15 patrol boats for use in security maintenance operations against maritime crimes,” in addition to technical assistance provided in previous years.

On Saturday night, national, state, and local governments, major cities, businesses, households and international monuments all turned their lights out for Earth Hour (some great before-and-after photos here) in recognition of the challenge of global climate change. The World Wildlife Fund has organized the effort the last several years, with 126 nations participating this year, up from last year’s 88 participating states. 

Coincidentally, The New York Times reported on Saturday that the Senate is likely to take up climate change legislation in April. However, that legislation will likely look markedly different from the House version of the bill, skirting any mention of a “cap and trade” provision.  In fact, according to The New York Times, “cap and trade” is no longer the energy policy of choice: indeed, the president dropped “cap and trade” from his current budget and Senate proponents have pronounced the measure dead.

Instead, according to The New York Times:

[The Senate] plan, still being written, will include a cap on greenhouse gas emissions only for utilities, at least at first, with other industries phased in perhaps years later. It is also said to include a modest tax on gasoline, diesel fuel and aviation fuel, accompanied by new incentives for oil and gas drilling, nuclear power plant construction, carbon capture and storage, and renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

• The New York Times features an article on how energy efficiency in the military could save lives.
• Wired Magazine outlines a new University of Maryland study on climate change; key finding: "As planetary temperatures rise, Earth’s soils release steadily larger amounts of carbon dioxide."
• According to The Washington Post, big oil companies are seeking natural gas concessions in the new climate bill. 
• Business Week reports that PetroChina looks to acquire energy resources abroad to match domestic energy demands.
• Drought in India threatens development, in addition to food and energy security, according to Gulf News. 

• According to Business Week, Saudi forces capture al Qaeda suspects plotting to attack energy and military installations in Saudi Arabia.
• The Associated Press reports that China continues cloud seeding and deploys military forces to provide water to the public amidst drought.
• U.S. Marines return home after a mission to supply food and water for victims of the Haitian earthquake, according to the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit Public Affairs.
• USA Today reports that Coalition and Afghan forces are working to provide jobs and financial assistance to poppy farmers.
• Russia and Qatar look to build energy cooperation between themselves as top gas exporters, reports Voice of Russia.

Yesterday, Vice President for Natural Security Sharon Burke appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee to be considered for the first-ever Director of Operational Energy Plans and Programming at the Department of Defense.

• See the video of the hearing.

If you missed the hearing, then we highly recommend this for your Wednesday viewing pleasure. See you tomorrow folks!

Anyone reading this blog knows the importance of understanding science and technology trends to the nation’s security. Most months, Scientific American has a few articles I’d consider must-reads for you dear readers, but if you still have a chance to pick up the March 2010 issue, almost every article provides great info on natural security issues. If you can’t get this issue and want to check any of them out, note that some of these links go to free content and others require a fee. Highlights include:

• “Invasion of the Drones,” on the increasing use of UAVs for environmental monitoring.
• My favorite is “Climate Change: A Controlled Experiment,” about experiments over the last decade to determine various potential climate change effects (changes in precipitation, more CO₂ in the air, etc.) on forests. I had the luck to see first-hand one of the experiments highlighted, Oak Ridge National Lab’s Free-Air CO₂ Enrichment experiment, last summer. I emerged from the forest, hopped in my car to drive off, and found that I had about a half dozen ticks stuck to my skin. But it was a remarkable forest.
• “Evolution of Minerals,” which discusses the evolution of minerals. It turns out that “more than half of the mineral species on Earth owe their existence to life, which began transforming the planet’s geology more than two billion years ago.”  There are wicked pictures of old-school minerals throughout this piece.
• The letters to the editor regarding last month’s sustainable energy issue (all online here). These short notes cover many of the pro and con points we all often hear about solar, wind, etc. It’s helpful to see the arguments aligned in one spot.
• A very short piece highlighting a Proceedings piece on
• A long piece on “Fusion’s False Dawn.” The title explains the verdict, but this is the best single article I’ve seen on the current status of fusion.

It hasn’t hit my mailbox yet, but looks like April’s issue is on “Managing Earth’s Future.” I bet I’ll have more to say on these topics than the simple characterization of what is or isn’t worth your precious reading minutes.

And in the theme of science & technology (for non-scientists) magazines, has anyone been reading SEED lately? I tend to only pick it up at airports, but let me know if you all think it should be on our must-read list.

If you’ll permit me to diverge a tad into a topic that may not seem totally security-related, the big news for me this weekend was the passing away of Stewart Udall, Secretary of the Interior in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and champion of national parks. I wasn’t alive when he served in government, so my admiration of his work is based on reading his writings from decades past. Researching natural resources issues naturally brought me to many of his articles. 

We’ll have a new report out soon which explains a bit more deeply how we see conservation and better ecosystem management as important security tools. In the meantime, Udall’s death reminded me of the hopeful story last year of Band-e Amir becoming Afghanistan’s first national park. Obviously the war there continues regardless of the establishment of this park. But for the longer-term picture in Afghanistan, remember that USAID estimates that roughly 70% of its  population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods – and promoting stable livelihoods is obviously important for our long-term goals in that country. Without protecting the ecosystems that support that agriculture, we’re looking at either a pretty dire long-term outlook for Afghanistan, or a dramatic need to ensure that it creates a high-tech or service economy to bring in money.

Esteemed colleague CDR Herb Carmen also Tweeted a good link yesterday to Udall’s 1972 Atlantic article, “The Last Traffic Jam,” on the growing U.S. demand for cars and their use and therefore oil. The article is well worth a read, but my favorite thing about this might be that to the right of the article (at the time I viewed it Sunday) the most prominent ad is for the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle. Nice contrast to Udall’s warning that it was unsound policy for the United States to rely on increasing oil importation and long-term development of new domestic oil resources to fulfill our own growing demand, and “the oil needs of the other industrialized countries [which] are growing faster than ours.”

Issues of Natural Security often seem to liken themselves to the work of Rube Goldberg. The actions of one state can sometimes have devastating knock-on effects down the pipeline, often so far removed that the connections in between can be difficult to identify.

Kanye West’s 2005 song Diamonds from Sierra Leone examines one such chain reaction which begins with jewelry and, after a series of actions usually far more sobering than the traditional Goldberg contraption, ties into the brutal instability of Sierra Leone. The conflict mineral phenomenon is not limited to diamonds. It burrows deep into the tin, tungsten, and tantalum mines of places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Darfur. Access to coveted natural resources offers warlords and others the ability to fuel deadly and destabilizing resource wars, which some describe as “the deadliest conflict globally since World War II.”

Mr. West, Imma let you finish this post:

Good morning, this ain’t Vietnam; still
people lose legs, hands, arms. For real.
Little is known of Sierra Leone
and how it connects to the diamonds we own

Today we’ll round out the Natural Security team’s three part comparison of the recently released 2010 Joint Operating Environment (JOE; PDF) and its predecessor the 2008 JOE (PDF). Be sure to check out Christine’s comparison of the two energy sections and Will’s comparison of the sections on climate change. Today, I’ll be looking into how both JOE reports view the roll of food in the security environment.

While I would have liked to have seen some evidence of new thought on the topic, the 2010 and 2008 JOE are remarkably similar on food (with only slight modifications made to the text, mostly to adjust tense and grammar). Regardless, the 2010 JOE (reiterating the 2008 JOE) does offer some very good Natural Security insights into food and agriculture. First, touching on the role that military forces may have to assume in assisting in food relief operations:

JOE 2010 (p. 30)

How quickly the world reacts to temporary food shortages inflicted by natural disasters will also pose challenges. In such cases, the Joint Force may find itself involved in providing lift, logistics, and occasionally security to those charged with relief operations.

For me, this statement drums up memories of recent news reports on violence and armed personnel surrounding food convoys during Haiti’s earthquake relief operations.

Yesterday, I caught a webcast of the House Committee on Science and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight hearing over Rare Earth Minerals and 21st Century Industry. A hearing I might feel more comfortable calling “Surprise! China has all the stuff: a rare earth tale.” Witnesses included: Dr. Stephen Freimann, retired Deputy Director of the Materials Science and Engineering Laboratory at the National Institute of Standards and Technology; Dr. Steven Duclos, Chief Scientist and Manager, Material Sustainability, GE Global Research; Dr. Karl A. Gschneider, Jr., of the Ames Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy; Mark Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Molycorp Minerals, LLC; and Terence Stewart, Managing Partner in the Law Offices of Stewart and Stewart.

Here are some of the important, though largely depressing, highlights:

*Disclaimer: I'm just highlighting what these panelists claimed; I'm not researching them or fact checking for the purpose of this post. We'll debate these perspectives and try to poke holes in the stats later among ourselves, maybe over St. Patrick's Day drinks.

• Chinese investment in Afghan copper mines may help stabilize the Logar province, reports The New Security Beat.
• The United Kingdom signs an energy protocol with Turkmenistan in the pursuit of diversifying sources of natural gas resources, according to UK Finance News.
• Reuters AlertNet reports on the food crisis in a politically unstable Zimbabwe, which may be exacerbated due to climate change.
• The U.S. and Canadian Coast Guards will meet this week to discuss cooperation over the Arctic, according to KTUU, an Alaskan NBC news affiliate.
• According to Reuters, a severe drought and shrinking water table in China may be the culprit in the cracking and closure of a runway in one of the region's busiest airports.