Center for a New American Security

 

"We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not just to ourselves, but to all posterity. We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms.  

 

The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist this transition, we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries, we must claim its promise. That’s how we will maintain our economic vitality and our national treasure -- our forests and waterways, our crop lands and snow-capped peaks. That is how we will preserve our planet, commanded to our care by God. That’s what will lend meaning to the creed our fathers once declared."

President Barack Obama, Second Inaugural Address, January 22, 2013

President Barack Obama officially began his second term yesterday when he took the oath of office in the White House Blue Room. This morning, shortly before noon, he will take the oath again on the steps of the West Front of the Capitol and deliver his formal second inaugural address.

What the president will say is a closely held secret, but many expect him to provide a broad vision for his second term priorities. He will have an opportunity to give more specifics in just a few short weeks when the president gives his State of the Union Address.

Will energy, climate change and natural resources be included in the president’s remarks today? It is hard to say. But I suspect there will be some mention. We can look back to four years ago and get a sense of how the president may touch on some of these issues in his remarks and his vision for addressing them:

The issue: “[E]ach day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.”

The vision: “We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.  We'll restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost.  We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories…With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet.”

Photo: Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts swears in President Barack Obama in the Blue Room of the White House on January 20, 2013. Courtesy of Lawrence Jackson.  

“Evidence for climate change abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans,” reads a draft of the Third National Climate Assessment, published for public review by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on Friday. 

The draft study is unequivocal about the state of climate change: it is already affecting Americans and it is primarily driven by human activity.  According to an excerpt from the study’s executive summary:

Climate change is already affecting the American people. Certain types of weather events have become more frequent and/or intense, including heat waves, heavy downpours, and, in some regions, floods and droughts. Sea level is rising, oceans are becoming more acidic, and glaciers and arctic sea ice are melting. These changes are part of the pattern of global climate change, which is primarily driven by human activity. 

The congressionally mandated study – a result of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 – is intended to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the impact of climate change on U.S interests – from human health and biodiversity to energy production and transportation. The assessment is required every four years, but in practice has been more ad hoc. (This assessment is the third one since the 1990 act was passed by congress.)

The study also provides useful insights to national security and foreign policy practitioners charged with navigating the changing global climate landscape and making sense of the impact on U.S. interests. While the study explores areas for mitigating climate change – that is, reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are adding to climate change – it also emphasizes adaptation to changes that are already locked in as a result of decades of emissions increases. According to the study, “Proactively preparing for climate change can reduce impacts, while also facilitating a more rapid and efficient response to changes as they happen.” 

The draft study is worth a closer examination than we can provide here on the blog. Read the full report here.

Natural resource and environmental issues have gained more attention from the national security and foreign policy communities in recent years– from concerns related to the U.S. rare earth supply chain to opportunities that might accrue from America’s growing abundance of natural gas. Which ones might get pressing attention in 2013? Here’s a list of the top U.S. policy trends I’ll be watching in 2013, in no particular order.  

1. Growing interest in understanding water security at the regional and state level in U.S. intelligence and security assessments. Water security took on a more prominent role in national security and foreign policy discussions in 2012. Some of this is owed to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has helped elevate water security issues during President Obama’s first term. After all, it was the State Department that commissioned an intelligence community assessment on water security that was released in March 2012 (Global Water Security). And Secretary Clinton elevated the issue at the 2012 UN General Assembly meeting last September when she participated in a roundtable discussion on water security.
   
   But I suspect that water security will continue to gain attention from the administration, even as Secretary Clinton steps down from the State Department. The National Intelligence Council’s recent Global Trends 2030 report specifically pointed to water scarcity as a part of a broader megatrend referred to as the “food, water and energy nexus” that will impact U.S. security interests – a good indicator that the intelligence community is examining the issue closely. And if he’s confirmed as Secretary of State, Senator John Kerry would likely bring a fresh perspective on water security, which has received some attention from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee under his leadership as chairman.