Center for a New American Security

CNAS is just several weeks away from publishing a major study on the South China Sea (look for it sometime early in January 2012). But with U.S. and other East Asian leaders preparing to meet in Bali on November 19, and the South China Sea likely to be a focus for some of those world leaders, it is important to keep track of the trends developing in the region.

Just yesterday, the commander of the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Scott Swift, raised concerns that minor territorial disputes in the South China Sea could precipitate greater conflict in the region. “There are lots of positive examples that people are reaching for dialogue as opposed to defense to solve these problems,” Swift said. Nevertheless, “A ‘miscalculation’ on the part of one actor could lead to the point where ‘presidents and premiers are engaged in a discussion to ensure it doesn’t escalate to something that nobody in the region wants,’” Swift cautioned, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Last week, The Times of India reported that India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Videsh would, with Vietnam’s support, continue its exploration for oil and natural gas resources in the South China Sea. The announcement came despite warnings from China that it expects countries outside the region to stay out and support bilateral cooperation between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors as they deal with their competing claims.

The move by Vietnam to invite ONGC Videsh to the region is a particularly interesting maneuver, one that suggests that bilateral cooperation between Beijing and Hanoi may be more difficult than initially thought – at least in the near term. Vietnam seems to be hedging by deepening its ties with India, which observers note is increasing its Naval and Air Force capabilities to offset China’s strengthening military.  For Vietnam, strengthening its ties with India – and leveraging its military capabilities – it hopes will help it develop a stronger bargaining position in the region; after all, Beijing has shown that it prefers bilateral deals with countries in the South China Sea as opposed to working multilaterally (e.g., with ASEAN or within the East Asia Summit) for similar reasons: it can leverage its economic and military strength to its advantage much more efficiently.

China is likely to keep a watchful eye on the developing Indian-Vietnamese relationship, which could in the near-term chill cooperation in the South China Sea. Perhaps in the long-term the leveling of the playing field will work to facilitate cooperation, though. It is difficult to tell, but I’m fairly confident that cooperation is still possible if the conditions are right.

If I had to pick one news story that stood out to me this weekend, it would have to be this piece from the Sunday Washington Post reporting on the growing domestic backlash to India’s land grab. The story stood out to me, in part, because land rights, use and seizing are issues we have not analyzed too much on the Natural Security blog. But as this report from yesterday’s Post portends, it is a creeping trend that we are likely to read more about as farmers in developing countries seek to hold onto their land in countries where population growth is shrinking the amount of arable farmland at the same time governments try to industrialize their economies by renting land to domestic or foreign companies.

“All over India, farmers are coming into conflict with the government as it tries to satisfy the country’s insatiable hunger for land for industry, infrastructure and urban housing,” the Post reported. “And the decades-old way of doing business — the government seizing the land under a British colonial law, paying a token compensation to farmers and then bullying people into submission — just isn’t working anymore.”

The report details a number of billion dollar investments being made by South Korean and Indonesian companies, to name just a few. Yet as the government attempts to capitalize on the interest from foreign companies, long-time farmers are rebuffing attempts by the government to seize their land. As a result, “Projects worth tens of billions of dollars have been held up as farmers, backed by local politicians and empowered by India’s vibrant television news channels, have found their voice — and said no,” according to the Post.

The India Space Research Organization (ISRO) successfully launched three satellites into orbit on Wednesday: ResourceSat-2 and two nano-satellites, YouthSat and X-Sat. The payloads were launched from the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle-C16, the 17th consecutive successful launch from the PSLV after it failed during its first launch in 1993.

ResourceSat-2 is the follow on mission to ResourceSat-1, an ISRO satellite launched in 2003 that was expected to have a mission life of 5-7 years. As a remote sensing satellite, ResourceSat-2 is equipped with three cameras that provide higher resolution images than its predecessor. In addition, it will carry an experimental instrument built by the Canadian based company, COMDEV, which will provide ship surveillance (including the speed and position of vessels on Earth).

The mission objective for ResourceSat-2 is nearly identical to ResourceSat-1, which focused on providing data on natural resources, including water and agricultural as well as climate studies. In explaining ResourceSat-2’s mission, ISRO Chairman K Radhakrishnan said that it will “monitor natural resources at different resolutions. It can be used to monitor snow cover, glacier changes, urban landscape and others.”

In addition, India has touted ResourceSat-2 as a satellite that will provide useful data to the international community when it begins transmitting on April 28. The Times of India reported yesterday that data from ResourceSat-2 will be shared among 15 countries. Similarly, in discussing the new satellite, R.R. Navalgund, director of the Space Applications Centre (which is a major component of ISRO) said, “You can collect data from the entire globe. So, there will be a great demand for this kind of data which is available from the Resourcesat-2…. It will become the workhorse for monitoring the resources of the entire earth for the global community.”

As the attention of the world turns towards the East over the coming decades, India will become an increasingly important power. As a recent CNAS report began, “The emergence of India as a new major global power is transforming the world’s geopolitical landscape, with profound implications for the future trajectory of our century and for America’s own global interests.” Other CNAS working papers have demonstrated the extensive mutual interests India and the United States will continue to share in the areas of defense, the global commons, and private sector trade. Natural security is another potential area for cooperation between Washington and New Delhi, and we therefore felt it would be worthwhile to highlight some of the natural security aspects of the India’s new budget that was released yesterday.

One of the largest priorities of the new budget is reducing the price of food. India has recently struggled with food price inflation, which reached a one-year high in December. Food prices rose 11 percent through the month of January and 11.49 percent by mid-February. It was therefore not surprising when, in his address to Parliament Monday unveiling the budget, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said, “Our principal concern this year has been the continued high food prices.”

The new budget proposes a number of steps to combat the rise in food prices. Most of these involve agricultural reform. For instance, the Singh administration proposed increasing funding for the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) a development program launched by the Indian government in 2007/2008. It aims to achieve 4% greater agricultural growth through providing incentives for holistic approaches to farming. Funding for RKVY in the new budget has been pegged at 78.6 billion rupees, a substantial increase from the 67.6 billion rupees it received last year.

As President Obama continues his tour through Asia this week, including Monday’s remarks in India, foreign policy-watchers have suggested a number of ways to improve and revitalize the India-U.S. relationship – including our very own CNAS colleagues. Importantly, President Obama himself emphasized the interplay between technology, new energy, and greater security during his address to the Indian Parliament. The final frontier – outer space – is one arena where some experts see potential collaboration between the United States and India. 

A November report issued by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in India, The Sky’s No Limit laid out the potential for U.S.-Indian efforts on space based solar power (SBSP).   If such technology can be developed, SBSP could be a remarkable future source of clean energy. The concept centers on placing satellites in geosynchronous orbit, capturing solar rays before their energy is diluted by the Earth’s atmosphere, turning this captured energy into microwave energy, and literally beaming it down to Earth-based receivers that could transform it into electricity. 

The IDSA report outlines, on page 67, four reasons why promoting India-U.S. cooperation on space based solar power makes sense at this juncture:

Firstly, India is the only major state where a Head of State has not only suggested space solar power as a goal for its space agency, but also expressed an interest in international cooperation. Second, as already noted above, there is considerable momentum in the Indo-US strategic partnership, with key components–space, energy, climate change, high tech, aviation, and dual use strategic technologies and defence cooperation–already in place with vibrant dialogue. Third, India’s need for power and development is acute, likely considerably more acute than other potential partners which makes it potentially a more motivated partner, and a linked effort also promises a tremendous ultimate market potential. Fourthly, the success of space solar power will depend partly on low-cost manufacture. In the time frame when space solar power will come of age, perhaps 15 years in the future, even as other manufacturing and labour markets age and face decline, India is projected to be in the midst of its demographic dividend, with the largest working age population of any country on earth.

Last night, CNAS hosted the official launch of Robert Kaplan’s new book, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power. As Nate Fick said in his opening remarks, we had a twofer: Robert Kaplan was joined by NPR’s award-winning correspondent Tom Gjelten who moderated the discussion. We will be posting videos, photos and a podcast of the event soon, but I wanted to share a part of last night’s discussion that I think is worth mentioning. 

During the Q/A portion of the event, Tom Gjelten asked Robert Kaplan about climate change; specifically how the rest of the world views the challenges and potential implications of climate change and the lack of American leadership to combat it. Gjelten prefaced his question by wondering aloud about the prospects of the next congress taking up climate and energy legislation given that a number of conservatives (some of them climate change skeptics) won seats in last week’s election.

For Kaplan, Bangladesh seemed to be the most apt example to use to respond to Gjelten’s question. As Kaplan notes in his book, Bangladesh may look small on a map (considering it’s surrounded by India), but if you look at the overall population, it has more people than Russia and a greater Muslim population that Iran. Now consider that most Bangladeshis are living at or below sea level.

Kaplan paints a vivid picture of what this means. Indeed, an interesting observation he makes in his book (and that he made last night) was how precious dry soil is in Bangladesh and how as sea level rise inundates Bangladesh, dry soil for agricultural and domestic use could become more scarce. (Kaplan noted that when people move their homes in Bangladesh, they often take the dry soil with them – that is how scarce it is.) 

The twentieth century witnessed Europe unfold as the center of gravity for world history. And in this still early century, the Middle East and South-Central Asia have been focal points for American policymakers and others around the world. But the Greater Indian Ocean may well be the defining geo-political cauldron in the twenty-first century, according to CNAS Senior Fellow Robert D. Kaplan in his latest opus, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power.     

Monsoon is a carefully crafted examination of the future of American Power in the context of the Indian Ocean, a region that once upon a time was the epicenter of world culture, travel, trade – wrestled over by empires of yesteryear – once again rising in prominence.

As the reader learns early on, historically, the region’s monsoon system (specifically its winds) shaped international engagement in the region, allowing travelers from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to make the journey to India and beyond in a fraction of the time it would take states to cross the Mediterranean (which is also a much shorter distance than the leg from North Africa to India). The short duration made travel and trade expedient, allowing states to share goods and culture throughout the entire Indian Ocean region. (Indeed, we learn how the monsoon winds helped to spread Islam across the ocean.)

Today, the Indian Ocean remains a crucial region for trade, both commercial and energy. Kaplan writes:

Today, despite the jet and information age, 90 percent of global commerce and two thirds of all petroleum supplies travel by sea. Globalization relies ultimately on shipping containers, and the Indian Ocean accounts for one half of all the world’s container traffic. Moreover, the Indian Ocean rimland from the Middle East to Pacific accounts for 70 percent of the traffic of petroleum products for the entire world.

For those of you familiar with Kaplan’s work, you won’t be surprised at the level of detail and depth into history he provides the reader to help ground his or her understanding of how important the region was, which of course is necessary to fully understand the region’s resurgence in geo-political affairs. Of course, Kaplan’s personal accounts from his voyage across the Indian Ocean help the reader connect with the story he unveils as he hops across the greater region, from Oman, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Burma, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, to Zanzibar.

CNAS Senior Fellow Richard Fontaine and Board members the Honorable Richard L. Armitage and Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns spoke at a CNAS event on Wednesday to formally launch Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations.

In case you haven’t already read the blueprint, be sure to check out the sections on energy and climate change. As I noted earlier in the week, as President Obama and the U.S. government continue to renew relations with America’s allies, energy and climate change issues – global challenges – are likely to be (or continue to be) important elements of those relationships moving forward.

If you missed the event on Wednesday, get caught up with the podcast here. Also, don’t miss Richard Fontaine discuss the benefits of a stronger U.S. relationship with India in this CNAS interview.

Photo: Courtesy of Stephen Dockery and CNAS.

In keeping with the tradition of highlighting our CNAS colleagues’ work here on the blog, I draw your attention to a new CNAS report, Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations. The report is authored by two CNAS Board members, former Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage and Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, and Senior Fellow Richard Fontaine.

One of the great things about highlighting our CNAS colleagues’ work is we can often draw connections to our Natural Security work, which demonstrates just how interdisciplinary this field is – and reminds us that natural resource issues cut across a wide spectrum of U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. But in this case we don’t have to draw the connection, as energy and climate change issues figure rather prominently in the U.S.-India blueprint.

As President Obama and the U.S. government continue to renew relations with America’s allies, energy and climate change issues – global challenges – are likely to be (or continue to be) important elements of those relationships moving forward. That’s certainly true of India.

On climate change, we saw last year in Copenhagen that “direct Indian engagement in these global negotiations demonstrated that it is essential to any international solution to this pressing problem,” the authors argued. Indeed, with Cancun just around the corner (next month in fact), it will be interesting to watch what role India takes on as an emerging regional powerbroker and member of the BASIC bloc - a grouping of Brazil, South America, India and China that serve almost as a counterweight to the United States and its developed country allies by resisting binding agreements on climate change that could undermine their own economic and national interests. Nevertheless, while there are some challenges, there are also clear opportunities for the United States and India to cooperate on climate change: