Center for a New American Security

Not surprisingly, water challenges continue to exacerbate tensions between India and Pakistan. Yesterday, The New York Times reported that India, in an effort to feed the insatiable energy appetite of an economy projected to grow by 9.4 percent this fiscal year, has planned to build several hydroelectric dams over the next decade. One planned project is a hydroelectric dam on the Indian-administered side of Kashmir in an upstream valley where waters from the Himalayan glaciers eventually flow through Indian Kashmir and into Pakistan. According to the Times, “In Pakistan, the project raises fears that India, its archrival and the upriver nation, would have the power to manipulate the water flowing to its agriculture industry — a quarter of its economy and employer of half its population.”

Despite a half-century of cooperation over water in the Indus basin, increasing apprehension between India and Pakistan over those resources has added another layer of complexity to an already complex and disjointed relationship; one mired by longstanding, cultural, social and political grievances and mistrust. As the Times reported, “The fight here is adding a new layer of volatility at a critical moment to one of the most fraught relationships anywhere, one between deeply distrustful, nuclear-armed nations who have already fought three wars.”

• How is India looking to obtain Iranian natural gas without routing through Pakistan? Ironically, running the pipe through water, the source of much tension between the two states, reports Times of India.
• According to Russian news source RT, Putin has confirmed the August opening date of a Russian built nuclear power plant in Iran.
• Check out Grist's "Top 5 Things to Watch," on the climate legislation.
• Tajikistan looks to ease tensions with Uzbekistan through reaffirming its commitment to water sharing, reports The Canadian Press.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty announces that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Tajikistan looking to gain a role in energy and water projects and dialogue.

• The U.S. Army awards $3.5million in contracts for energy security initiatives on installations, reports UPI.
• Check out this interesting project idea on utilizing solar energy for U.S. Coast Guard vessels on Tech Brief's design contest.
• President Obama looks to build ties with Azerbaijan, declaring "Azerbaijan's leadership in the development for a Southern Corridor for energy has also increased regional prosperity and enhanced global energy security," according to Reuters. 
• The Business Standard discusses water issues between India and Pakistan amidst the failure of last week's water dialogue between both nations.
• China has overtaken the United States in new energy investments, reports Investor's Business Daily.

• According to Business Week, Turkmenistan will begin production of a $2billion gas pipeline to the West to provide an alternative to Russian energy.
• Pakistan and India are looking to establish a deal over two large hydroelectric plants in Kashmir, according to the Daily Times.
• Though the reference may be a bit outdated, San Fransisco's Bay News uses Avatar to frame conflict minerals in the Congo.
• China has announced even tighter controls on their strategic rare earth resources, reports China's own People's Daily.
• Reuters reports that Iran may have plans to cut national subsidies on electricity, water and food to Afghan refugees who have moved into Iran. 

“If you had to pick a place that would be the mother of all humanitarian emergencies over the next 20 years, the Navy and Air Force might focus on Bangladesh,” said Robert Kaplan, CNAS senior fellow and correspondent with The Atlantic Monthly, at the April 29, 2010 event, Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment. “And you know, Bangladesh you laugh about because there’s always trouble in Bangladesh, but Bangladesh has 150 million people. That’s more than the population of Russia.”

As the national security community continues to shift from studying to responding to climate change, understanding where climate changes will be most acute will be critical for the United States – and in particular the U.S. armed forces – to prepare for future challenges, such as an increase in humanitarian and disaster relief missions. “We’re facing some immense humanitarian catastrophes in the future that we’re seeing the militarization of humanitarian relief because only navies and air forces have the lift capacity to get fresh water and supplies to many of these littoral areas,” said Kaplan.

• The Telegraph features an article on threats made by a Pakistani terrorist organization against India over water rights.
• The European Union looks to pressure Africa and China over access to rare earth minerals, reports Earth Times.
• Cape Cod gets the go ahead for 130 offshore wind turbines, the first project of its kind in America, according to The Guardian.
• A recent article from IRIN reports that Iraq may need to import up to 80% of its wheat in 2010 due to low water levels in Mesopotamia.
• The European Union may secure a new natural gas source, as Turkey and Azerbaijan reach an agreement over an Azeri pipeline through Turkey to Europe, according to UPI.

Michael McCarthy reports from the New America Foundation event on Minding the Gap: Where Will President Obama's Energy and Climate Policies Take Us in Four to Eight Years?

Yesterday I attended an event at the New America Foundation on Minding the Gap: Where Will President Obama's Energy and Climate Policies Take Us in Four to Eight Years? The format was a series of remarks by energy consultants and Department of Energy representatives, moderated by Lisa Margonelli, director of New America’s Energy Policy Initiative. A keynote speech from Representative Bob Inglis (R-SC) capped the event in which he advocated for his revenue-neutral alternative to the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade legislation. Here are a few highlights from yesterday’s event:

• New America President Steve Coll introduced the panel by noting that in energy policy, the era of false starts and ad hoc solutions is likely coming to an end. Coll believes the current administration is dedicated to creating a top-down, cohesive energy policy before leaving office.
• One energy firm consultant is happy to see an administration dedicated to doing something about climate change, but worries about the uncertainty over how to price carbon in the next four to eight years.
• Another panel member noted that the test of the American leadership is not only how it reduces its own emissions, but also how it helps developing nations to reduce their emissions, since these countries will be responsible for most of the emissions growth in the future.
• One panelist is helping the Department of Energy to distribute funds from the stimulus bill passed earlier this year. He noted that DOE’s new Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), modeled after the Defense Department’s DARPA, has received 3,700 concept papers from established companies, start-ups and universities. ARPA-E is selecting about one in 100 of these project proposals to fund.
• Congressman Inglis believes in the dangers of climate change, but often sells his skeptical colleagues by reminding them that climate change legislation is good for America’s energy security as well. If U.S. energy interests were less beholden to price and availability fluctuations in volatile regions, he noted, “that’s national security.”

All in all there were some interesting ideas floating through the New America offices yesterday. While only one participant made the argument that climate change legislation is good for U.S. security, he was also the participant with the most direct political influence, and he is clearly concerned about the issue. In recent weeks we’ve seen explicit links between climate change and national security being discussed in the Senate, and it’s encouraging to see that similar ideas may be brewing in the House as well.

Amanda Hahnel reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report launch of World Energy Outlook 2009

Yesterday I ventured over to CSIS to attend the launch of the World Energy Outlook 2009 report, an annual report put on by the International Energy Agency.  Dr. Fatih Barol, the chief economist on the project, briefed us on the key takeaways, some of which I’ve captured below:

• Non-OECD countries account for all of the growth in emissions. In a reference scenario where limited action was taken to reduce carbon emissions, China would increase emissions by 6 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030.
• The current energy system is unsustainable, a revolution in how we use and supply fuel must be implemented.
• With current global population, by 2030 we will not be able to afford cheap enough energy to sustain enough economic growth to provide a minimum level of employment in the world.
• New supplies of oil will most likely be concentrated in OPEC countries. Dependence on these countries for oil will continue to challenge our energy security.
• Energy efficiency is the area where everyone has the most to gain.
• India was not listed among the emerging economies due to a lower per capita income. This, according to the report, means that sustaining growth for them is more critical than it is for China.
• The report relies heavily on carbon capture and sequestration as well as nuclear energy for sustainable energy alternatives in a new low-carbon world. Paying attention to the breakdowns of this technology in different scenarios is important.

It was a great event that provided some of the best energy data analyses available. As Dr. Barol admitted, a lot of the information is updated from what we already know, but the continuation of information collection and study is important.  If you’re in need of a great collection of energy-related data, check out their report for more in-depth findings.

This Thanksgiving weekend, with newspapers light on news and heavy on ads, the biggest story was clearly the crashing of the White House state dinner for Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. While this news was quite important for its revealing of a Secret Service lapse and for its gossip value, more important news regarding India remained somewhat under the radar.

Energy security is often grounded in political concerns here in the United States, and it is of course unsurprising that other countries factor their domestic politics into economic calculations. A perfect example of this is a debate about a decade ago in South Asia over natural gas pipelines. In May 1999 Rahul Tongia and V. S. Arunachalam reviewed the debate in their Economic and Political Weekly article, “Natural Gas Imports by South Asia: Pipelines or Pipedreams?”