Center for a New American Security

News this morning that a suicide bomber attacked an Iraqi Army recruiting center, killing 48 and wounding 129, comes weeks before the U.S. military prepares to drawdown troops from Iraq. By August 31, 2010, the U.S. military will shift from combat missions to training and security assistance, leaving 50,000 U.S. troops in the country – down from a high of 160,000 in 2007 during the military surge that helped improve stability in the Iraqi state. But as U.S. troops prepare to drawdown, I wonder what our long-term commitment will look like in Iraq.

With the U.S. military drawing down, our long-term commitment will undoubtedly rely heavily on our civilian assets. Tens of thousands of private contractors, a large civilian corps and embassy staff will play an increasing important role, perhaps helping the Iraqi government build capacity where it hasn’t otherwise been able to.  

In a guest post I wrote back in June for Tom Ricks’s Best Defense blog, I discussed some of the acute challenges that have been marginalized in the post-war years that could undermine long-term stability, principally around natural resources, such as water and agricultural productivity. I’ll be honest, I don’t have a lot of confidence that in the near term the Iraqi government will be able to adequately address these enduring challenges, like that one in four Iraqis don’t have access to fresh water; the Iraqi government has been in limbo since March when national elections failed to form a national government. Needless to say, the government still has much to do to strengthen its legitimacy – and the attack this morning suggests that near-term security challenges – direct threats to the state – could be where the Iraqi government’s attention is focused as it begins to completely take over responsibility for state security.

I went to an event last Wednesday morning at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) that included a panel with James Yeager, former advisor to Afghanistan Ministry of Mines, Graciana del Castillo, a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University and Scott Worden, Senior Rule of Law Advisor at USIP, and was moderated by Raymond Gilpin, Associate Vice President for Sustainable Economies Centers of Innovation. Strange as it may seem, the event gave me a  feeling of déjà vu.  The event, “High-Value Resource Contracts, Conflict, and Peace in Afghanistan,” didn’t on its face have much in common with an event that I had attended last Monday at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, “China and the Persian Gulf.” Yet I was hearing an eerily similar refrain:  At the Wilson Center last Monday, Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation, Afshin Molavi, declared that “China has won the Iraq war,” in the sense that its state-owned petroleum and oil companies have acquired lucrative contracts, and have virtually become one of the dominant players in Iraq. 

Then on Wednesday, Yeunger’s very first statement of the session raised the issue of dealing with bids on Afghan mining tenders from Chinese state-owned corporations.  He argued that the current situation, where Western-owned, private corporations must submit bids against Chinese state-owned companies like MCC (China Metallurgical Group Corporation), is inherently unequal because China’s corporations are aiming only to gain access to commodities, and therefore don’t have to be financially profitable; in fact they can even operate at a loss.  Furthermore, bids from these companies are often accompanied by a financial aid package from the government of China that can be hard to turn down, especially if you’re the government of one of the poorest countries in the world, such as in Afghanistan, where a 20-30 million dollar bribe may be more tempting.  Worden also pointed out that there have been (passive) accusations that China’s mineral companies are free-riding off of the security provided by the U.S. military.

Changes in the character of warfare are accelerating the growing reliance on contractors on the battlefield. . . Long-term nation-building efforts like those in Iraq and Afghanistan require an array of functions – from advising and training foreign security forces to constructing and maintaining power plants and waterworks – that the U.S. government is not manned to carry out on its own

This is a passage under the heading “The Changing Nature of Conflict,” in CNAS’s new report, Contracting in Conflicts: The Path to Reform.

Though discussion of Natural Security issues don’t figure prominently in the report, Richard Fontaine and Dr. John Nagl, the report’s authors, have teed up an array of topics to be explored deeper by persons such as myself. In addition to the abovementioned “power plants and water works,” Contracting in Conflict explains that contractors have found themselves filling the position of agricultural technician, energy infrastructure (re)constructionist, supply convoy security and a host of other necessary roles in the modern battlefield, both during and after the actual battle.

• Forbes covers the role of alternative energy in the U.S. military on its Business in the Beltway blog.
• Iraq has plans to fund its national reconstruction by boosting oil production from 2.1million barrels per day to 10-12 million, reports UPI.
• Longtime CNAS friend Andrew Bacevich weighs in on U.S. security priorities, identifying environmental issues such as the Gulf oil spill as a key concern, in today's Boston Globe.
• The president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo calls for the removal of all U.N. forces, adding accusations that the U.N. wants to seize the country's mineral deposits, reports The National. 
• Check out Politico for some commentary on food issues and stability.

• The Telegraph features an article on threats made by a Pakistani terrorist organization against India over water rights.
• The European Union looks to pressure Africa and China over access to rare earth minerals, reports Earth Times.
• Cape Cod gets the go ahead for 130 offshore wind turbines, the first project of its kind in America, according to The Guardian.
• A recent article from IRIN reports that Iraq may need to import up to 80% of its wheat in 2010 due to low water levels in Mesopotamia.
• The European Union may secure a new natural gas source, as Turkey and Azerbaijan reach an agreement over an Azeri pipeline through Turkey to Europe, according to UPI.

A war machine, like any mechanism, needs fuel in order to run. When that war machine is operating in an environment where the necessary fuels are sparse, a person has two options: 1) Get it there somehow, or 2) Give up.  The current engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, as their architects have elected to go with option one, are fed by often-long convoys transporting supplies (fuel and water) for both man and machine.

Convoy, released by C.W. McCall in 1975, follows the journey of truck driver Rubber Duck, within an ever growing convoy on the way to its destination.  Due to the high value of its cargo, the convoy is convinced that “Ain't nothin' gonna get in our way,” despite the fact that they come under fire from, “armored cars, and tanks, and jeeps, and rigs of every size. . . And choppers filled the skies.”

Unlike at the finale of this country classic, however, sometimes the most protected convoy can end in ambushed disaster, resulting in astronomical costs for the operation (in time, dollars and blood).  The Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL) states that resupply casualties historically account for 10-12 percent of total Army casualties, the majority being water and fuel related, making this, quite literally, a deadly issue.

An American civil affairs soldier surveys a canal that feeds into a recently installed solar powered water filtration system outside Zadan, Iraq. The filtration systems were recently installed by Iraqi contractors and can sanitize 15 liters of contaminated water per minute, providing safe drinking water to hundreds of nearby Iraqi families. According to officials with Multi-National Force-Iraq, "The filters collect and concentrate ultraviolet rays from the sun, killing harmful bacteria and providing safe drinking water for the local populace." The filtration system installed outside Zadan can currently supply 240 Iraqi families with 30 liters of clean water per day.

Photo: Courtesy of Multi-National Division - Baghdad. 

Earlier this week my colleague Christine Parthemore and I wrote about CNAS’s recent excursion aboard the USS Harry S. Truman, a Nimitz-class carrier whose tactical air wing consists of F/A-18C/D Hornets and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. For this week’s Reading Old Magazines I wanted to look at the history of the F/A-18 fleet, specifically around concerns over fuel performance. I dug up an interesting story by Lyndsey Layton of The Washington Post from March 25, 2003, just days into Operation Iraqi Freedom: “Modified Fighter Jet Lends More Fuel to the Fight.” (Subscription required. It is obviously not an old magazine, but some days an exception is in order) Layton’s piece does a great job of framing operational energy security in the context of yesterday’s battles and today’s wars.

According to Layton, shortly after U.S. combat operations in Iraq began, the U.S. air campaign shifted from bombing fixed Iraqi targets to bombing soldiers and weapons in the field. However, the U.S. Navy quickly realized that the fuel performance of its strike fighters was impeding its ability to carry out protracted missions that required jets to loiter in the skies above Iraq.  “For those missions,” Layton wrote, “pilots [needed] to circle over Iraq for long periods, awaiting calls to strike Iraqi units menacing U.S. ground forces making their way toward Baghdad.”

• Britain's Daily Mail chronicles a new UN report claiming that climate change will increase world hunger between 10 and 20 percent by 2050.
• The Australian reports on Japan's possible plans for a “resource grab” of rare earth elements, which are used in many Japanese electronic products and hybrid car engines.
• In Copenhagen today, U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern told developing countries they will not get a free pass on cutting emissions but instead need to make their own commitments, according to Scientific American. Meanwhile, the BBC reports on scientists from the Scripps Research Institute who will argue at Copenhagen today that the UN's numbers have underestimated the climate change problem.
• Multi-National Force Iraq reports that U.S. forces in Baghdad are working with Iraqis on solar-powered water filters to ensure water security.
• Navy News reports that the Department of the Navy received the Platts Global Energy Award for its environmental efforts.

• The DOD Energy Blog reports on solar-power projects being implemented at various U.S. military installations.
• Foreign Policy writes that the number one most overlooked story of 2009 is the Northeast Passage of the Arctic opening for commerce (not that it was overlooked by us!). 
• Scientific American features a story about the best ways to adapt to the dangers of a warming climate.
• Stars and Stripes (along with MSNBC) reports on the tanker heading to the United States that was recently hijacked by Somali pirates—with $20 million of oil inside.
• The world's largest oil companies may finally be closing real contracts in Iraq almost seven years after the American-led invasion there, according to The New York Times.