Center for a New American Security

Strong leadership on climate change is hard to come by, especially at UN climate negotiations. The United States is too often undermined by the lack of domestic legislation on energy and climate change that would give the U.S. delegation the credibility it needs to persuade states such as China to act. China meanwhile is primarily concerned with sustaining strong economic growth in order to meet living standards for a growing population; so China is not willing to lead unless it gets a big carrot.

But that is not to say that there aren’t states that strongly push for an agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There are, they just don’t have much to lose with an agreement; indeed, they’re often developing countries that are really at risk due to climate change. In order for a state to secure the credibility it needs to rally other states to action, it has to be willing to make sacrifices in the short term; simply, it has to have something to lose. And that is what makes Mexico such an interesting state to watch during this week’s Cancun conference.

On Monday, The Washington Post reported that Mexico is seeking a leadership role in climate policy, in large part due to Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who apparently is a “climate wonk.” Unlike other developing countries, Mexico has more credibility which helps make it a potentially stronger leader on climate policy: Mexico is a major oil producer, ranked seventh in 2008 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Mexico is also the 14th largest economy in the world and “contributes between 1.5 and 3 percent of global [greenhouse gas] emissions, according to The Post. With oil revenues generating approximately 40 percent of Mexico’s state expenditures, it has some skin the game if an international climate agreement means that Mexico’s oil revenues could shrink in the short term as countries make a transition to alternative fuels. But that doesn’t seem to be stopping Mexico.

This morning The Washington Post reported that the United States plans to embed American intelligence agents in Mexican law enforcement units along the border city of Ciudad Juárez in an effort to combat illicit drug trafficking and the strangle hold that the Mexican drug cartels have throughout Mexico. And while combating the drug trade in Mexico – especially along the U.S./Mexico border – is a cornerstone of our bilateral efforts to bring a modicum of stability to the country, the United States is also making environmental cooperation a priority along the border as well.

Last week, my colleagues Christine Parthemore, Commander Herb Carmen and I were on location in Colorado Springs visiting with folks at U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to discuss all things energy and climate change-related. One interesting program that we learned about during our visit though is an ongoing bilateral, interagency effort that includes NORTHCOM, the Environmental Protections Agency (EPA) and several U.S. and Mexican state and federal agencies around environmental preparedness, protection and response along the southern border.

You couldn’t swing a dead polar bear this weekend without hitting hundreds of reports and commentaries about Copenhagen or Climategate, so I’m going to focus my attention elsewhere.

Last week we CNASers gathered around for an informal lunchtime chat, and several of us voiced concern about the recession, lack of confidence in Wall Street, and – my favorite topic of conversation – informal markets. I don’t consider black markets by necessity threatening, wrong, or bad, but at times less-than-legal dealings become large, interesting, and potentially disruptive.

This weekend, The Washington Post reported on just such an event. It turns out that “Drug traffickers employing high-tech drills, miles of rubber hose and a fleet of stolen tanker trucks have siphoned more than $1 billion worth of oil from Mexico's pipelines over the past two years.”

• Arctic resources and shipping lanes could become a major security issue of the coming years, and The New York Times is reporting on the first commercial voyages through the Arctic's newly-opened sea passages.
• Although several sources have reported on China's growing interest in alternative sources of electricity, Scientific American points out that China's wind power industry has serious infrastructure problems to overcome before it can make a real impact on the nation's energy profile.
• The New York Times reports on Mexico's “worst drought in six decades.”
• Forbes features a story on Japan, which may have trouble fulfilling its own promises to cut carbon emissions with the new prime minister-elect's plan to abolish highway tolls.
• The Times Online reports that some British politicians are getting serious about how the water used for commonly consumed items affects its availability for food production in developing countries.

For the past several months the American media has grown increasingly fascinated with Mexico, with widespread coverage of the swine flu outbreak in April and May as a top news item. However, American media and the policy community – including CNAS’ own Col. Robert Killebrew – have been increasingly focused on Mexico’s struggle to contain drug-related violence and the growing power of cartels. Earlier this year, the violence reached such extreme levels that there was increasing talk of Mexico reaching failed state status. While this conversation has abated, a recent resurgence in cartel-related violence may reignite that debate and offer an opportunity to broaden the discussion to include other issues engaging recent events in Mexico.