Center for a New American Security

News broke late last night that longtime North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died on Saturday, leaving his son, Kim Jong-un, as the chosen successor. This is a significant event and experts around the world are still reacting to the news in order to try to determine how Kim Jong-il’s death will shape North Korea moving forward. But as experts ask ‘What’s next for North Korea?” they should be sure to incorporate the state’s perennial challenges with natural resources into their assessment, which will likely play a role in shaping the North Korean state in the years ahead.

Last year, Bailey Culp wrote a timely blog post here describing the litany of resource challenges that the country is grappling with. Her assessment is as relevant as ever:

“Natural Insecurity in the Hermit Kingdom”

By Bailey Culp, former CNAS Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Research Intern

Just beyond the tranquil picturesque landscape of the demilitarized zone on the Korean Peninsula lies modern day North Korea, a bizarre and mysterious world unto itself. The country is shrouded in uncertainty and most of what the outside world knows comes through accounts from defectors, rumors printed by the South Korean press and North Korean state-run media announcements. Case in point: at a recent U.S. Senate Hearing examining the current security situation on the Korean Peninsula, Senator John McCain asked Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (and CNAS co-founder), if Kim Jong-un was the “likely successor” to his father Kim Jong-il, who has ruled since 1994. Secretary Campbell succinctly replied, “Your guess is as good as ours, sir.”

The regime of Kim Jong-Il consistently draws the attention of the international community due to its ominous chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons capabilities and often erratic behavior. Furthermore, the humanitarian situation is extremely dire, with 8.7 million people in need of food assistance, 1 in 3 children under the age of 5 malnourished, and twenty-seven percent of the population at or below the absolute poverty level, living on less than 1 dollar a day.

A potential energy deal between Russia and North Korea may alter the geopolitical balance in Northeast Asia. Over the weekend, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il visited the Russian Far East in what may be a sign that Pyongyang is willing to develop a lucrative energy deal with Moscow. Though no official deal has been announced, The New York Times reported Monday what the broad contours of an energy deal could look like:

For years, officials in Moscow and Seoul have urged North Korea to let the two countries build a pipeline through the North to carry Russian natural gas to meet the rising demand in South Korea and perhaps to also supply Japan. North Korea can expect to earn as much as $500 million a year in transit fees from the pipeline, according to South Korean analysts.

…

After years of hesitation, North Korea has recently shown interest in the proposals. Executives from the Russian gas firm Gazprom visited Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, in July. This month, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that North Korea was “positive” about the pipeline project, and North Korea’s media acknowledged last week that Mr. Medvedev had called for greater cooperation involving energy and railways among Russia and the two Koreas.

An energy deal could change the geopolitical balance in a variety of ways. In particular, Russia would reap significant benefits from wielding its oil and natural gas reserves to develop its Far East. For years Moscow has struggled to maintain strong ties to its eastern hinterlands, in part because of the geographic distance (nearly 4,000 miles – or seven time zones – separate Moscow from its most eastern population). As a result, Russians in the Far East have looked to China for everything from agricultural goods to jobs. Indeed, Chinese influence in Russia’s east has steadily increased, worrying some in Moscow. A lucrative energy deal that would enable Moscow to invest in its Far East may help tip the balance of influence away from the Chinese.

Faced with floods, an exceptionally cold winter, and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, North Korea has issued desperate pleas to the international community for food aid.  Yet the United States, South Korea, Japan and China (which together are responsible for 80% of North Korea’s food aid since 1995) all have significant reasons to refrain from providing the Kim Jung-il regime with any relief. Political considerations and concerns that the food will be diverted to the country’s elite contribute to the reluctance among Washington and its allies. Meanwhile, a severe drought threatening the wheat crop in China could give Beijing pause when it considers how much assistance to dole out to North Korea this year.

The World Food Program (WFP) is currently conducting an assessment of the food crisis in North Korea, which is due to be released next month. Whether the report differs from one released in November of last year, which projected a slight increase for this year’s harvest, it may help address speculation that Pyongyang is exaggerating its need in order to stockpile food in preparation for the planned 2012 celebrations.

This week, the CNAS Asia-Pacific Security team is in South Korea where we co-hosted a conference with the Seoul-based East Asia Institute, The ROK-US Alliance: Planning for the Future, and launched a new CNAS report – which you should definitely checkout when it becomes available tomorrow – Securing South Korea: A Strategic Alliance for the 21^st Century.

Concerning natural security, I wanted to highlight two points from the conference that were particularly memorable.

First, according to a few panelists, more attention should be paid to the desperate state of human security in North Korea as a component contributing to potential instability. Indeed, two aspects of human security in North Korea deserve examination: the lack of food and environmental security. For years, North Koreans have suffered from food shortages, exacerbated by both perennial drought and flooding. Further, environmental issues such as soil degradation and deforestation plague rural areas of North Korea, hindering effective farming practices and intensifying food shortages. While the international community remains focused on North Korea’s aggressive provocations and recent nuclear revelations, food shortages, widespread starvation and environmental woes persist. In short, the North Korean people quietly suffer as their regime loudly provokes the international community, devoting resources to enhance military capabilities rather than the delivery of desperately needed public goods and services.

Just beyond the tranquil picturesque landscape of the demilitarized zone on the Korean Peninsula lies modern day North Korea, a bizarre and mysterious world unto itself. The country is shrouded in uncertainty and most of what the outside world knows comes through accounts from defectors, rumors printed by the South Korean press and North Korean state-run media announcements. Case in point: at a recent U.S. Senate Hearing examining the current security situation on the Korean Peninsula, Senator John McCain asked Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (and CNAS co-founder), if Kim Jong-un was the “likely successor” to his father Kim Jong-il, who has ruled since 1994. Secretary Campbell succinctly replied, “Your guess is as good as ours, sir.”

The regime of Kim Jong-Il consistently draws the attention of the international community due to its ominous chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons capabilities and often erratic behavior. Furthermore, the humanitarian situation is extremely dire, with 8.7 million people in need of food assistance, 1 in 3 children under the age of 5 malnourished, and twenty-seven percent of the population at or below the absolute poverty level, living on less than 1 dollar a day.

However, while North Korea’s humanitarian and military challenges gain prominent attention by Western media and governments, the state of North Korean’s ecosystem is rarely covered despite the vast implications this issue will have for the Korean peninsula in the years ahead. In the case of the DPRK, the past is prologue: famine and drought in the mid-1990s precipitated rampant deforestation, land erosion, pillaging of forests, pollution, and the contamination of water supplies, which all still negatively affect the country today.

From 1994 to 1997, when the famine was at its worst, North Koreans had little or no electricity, resorting mostly to firewood to heat their homes. Undoubtedly, the use of firewood during the energy crisis led to a sharp decline in forest resources. Fires, landslides, insect damage, and drought have further contributed to the degradation of forests since the 1990s. Journalistic accounts, such as Barbara Demick’s novel, Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea, articulate the desperation of North Koreans during the famine, explaining that children would kill and eat rats, mice, frogs, tadpoles, and grasshoppers just to have something to fill their stomachs. Throughout the famine, North Koreans often resorted to a variety of other wild foods, such as grass, mushrooms, and tree bark, to alleviate their hunger, leaving many forests barren of vegetation or animal life. Indeed, the dietary dependency North Koreans have on the natural environment has significantly impacted the diversity (or lack thereof) of plant and animal life today.