Center for a New American Security

If there’s one thing that I’ve learned in my time at CNAS working with the Natural Security team, it’s that climate events and natural disasters around the world (along with issues of natural resources, bio-diversity and energy resources) are having an increasingly important impact on US national security issues.  The floods in Pakistan are a prime example of one of these issues that defies the traditional boundaries of security studies, and provides an example of the ways that traditional conceptions of what constitutes a threat to the United States will have to evolve to match the increasingly tangled and complex nature and overwhelming scope of these new issues.

We’ve been following the story of the floods in our news and posts, but it’s worth reviewing the extent of the damage, which seems to expand exponentially day by day.  As floods continue to sweep south, the UN estimates that about 17 million people have been affected by the floods, and about 1.2 million homes have been destroyed.  Authorities are organizing mass evacuations of 200,000 people in the Thatta area of Sindh province, but these evacuations have come too late for many.  The UN also requested 40 more helicopters from the international community on Tuesday, noting that more than 800,000 people were isolated by the flooding and could only be reached with aid by air.  Conditions are now ripe for the spread of water-borne and potentially epidemic disease, such as cholera, diarrhoea and dysentery. The huge numbers are hard to properly digest, but for context, according to CARE, “this disaster has surpassed the number of people affected by the 2005 South Asia tsunami, the 2005 South Asia earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake combined.”

As of Wednesday, devastating floods in Pakistan had directly affected 15.4 million people, damaging or destroying nearly a million homes and 3.2 million hectares of crops.  The satellite image above shows flooding near Kashmor, Pakistan on August 12, right before the second wave of flooding hit.  Flooding traveled down the Indus River from northwestern Pakistan to this area of southern Pakistan: the flood-swollen river is muddy and brown and has covered much of the city of Khewali and surrounding farmland.  Flooding is already causing a vast humanitarian disaster, and although the United States and others have committed aid and emergency assistance, the UN warns that this will not be enough. The floods could prove a major destabilizing factor in the country and the region.  

Photo: Courtesy of Robert Simmon, NASA.

Pakistani civilians prepare to board a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter during an evacuation mission in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan on August 5, 2010. The U.S. military is conducting humanitarian and disaster relief missions to assist Pakistanis in flood-stricken regions; floods have claimed more than 1,500 lives. Concerns have been raised that the Pakistani government's inadequate response efforts could fuel unrest and boost the appeal of militant groups, which could threaten U.S. security interests in the region.  

“Just based on our troops in the region, our goals in the region, our work with allies like India in the region — anything that destabilizes Pakistan or affects its government's ability to keep control of the country has enormous stakes for the United States on the security side,” CNAS fellow Christine Parthemore said on NPR's All Things Considered earlier this week.

Photo: Courtesy of Staff Sgt. Horace Murray and the U.S. Army.

Severe flooding throughout Pakistan is exacerbating anti-government anger in many parts of the country, including in Pakistan’s northwest region, particularly the Swat Valley where the Pakistani military has been engaging the Taliban and other Islamic insurgents seeking refuge from U.S. military and NATO forces in Afghanistan. On Sunday, The New York Times reported that the recent flooding, which has claimed at least 700 lives, is “the latest disaster to test Pakistan's already strained leadership,” a test that the Pakistani government appears to be struggling with. (An update from The Washington Post this morning puts the death toll between 730 and 1,100.)   

According to The Washington Post, the government’s disaster response efforts have been hampered by sluggishness and disorganization, with authorities appearing “overmatched by the massive devastation.”  The Post reported that “Provincial officials in the northwest [said] these floods have been the worst to hit the area since at least the 1920s, and they concede they have few resources with which to help victims.”

The destruction has been widespread, claiming coveted livestock and crumbling infrastructure. The effects have been felt throughout the country, but in particular in the Swat Valley where tensions between the government and the people have already been enflamed by recent fighting between the army and Islamic militants, where stability remains tenuous. As The New York Times reported:

Also hit hard was the Swat Valley, where the government has been working on reconstruction after last year’s military operation there to remove the militants; of the 65 bridges washed away by the rains, 25 were in Swat. A community awareness group in Swat called CARAVAN, which has a sprawling volunteer network, reported that up to 90 percent of area residents had lost their livestock. It also said that the floods topping the famed river Swat washed away 26 hotels that line the riverfront view, including the iconic Khyber and Honeymoon hotels.

Not surprisingly, water challenges continue to exacerbate tensions between India and Pakistan. Yesterday, The New York Times reported that India, in an effort to feed the insatiable energy appetite of an economy projected to grow by 9.4 percent this fiscal year, has planned to build several hydroelectric dams over the next decade. One planned project is a hydroelectric dam on the Indian-administered side of Kashmir in an upstream valley where waters from the Himalayan glaciers eventually flow through Indian Kashmir and into Pakistan. According to the Times, “In Pakistan, the project raises fears that India, its archrival and the upriver nation, would have the power to manipulate the water flowing to its agriculture industry — a quarter of its economy and employer of half its population.”

Despite a half-century of cooperation over water in the Indus basin, increasing apprehension between India and Pakistan over those resources has added another layer of complexity to an already complex and disjointed relationship; one mired by longstanding, cultural, social and political grievances and mistrust. As the Times reported, “The fight here is adding a new layer of volatility at a critical moment to one of the most fraught relationships anywhere, one between deeply distrustful, nuclear-armed nations who have already fought three wars.”

• How is India looking to obtain Iranian natural gas without routing through Pakistan? Ironically, running the pipe through water, the source of much tension between the two states, reports Times of India.
• According to Russian news source RT, Putin has confirmed the August opening date of a Russian built nuclear power plant in Iran.
• Check out Grist's "Top 5 Things to Watch," on the climate legislation.
• Tajikistan looks to ease tensions with Uzbekistan through reaffirming its commitment to water sharing, reports The Canadian Press.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty announces that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Tajikistan looking to gain a role in energy and water projects and dialogue.

• The U.S. Army awards $3.5million in contracts for energy security initiatives on installations, reports UPI.
• Check out this interesting project idea on utilizing solar energy for U.S. Coast Guard vessels on Tech Brief's design contest.
• President Obama looks to build ties with Azerbaijan, declaring "Azerbaijan's leadership in the development for a Southern Corridor for energy has also increased regional prosperity and enhanced global energy security," according to Reuters. 
• The Business Standard discusses water issues between India and Pakistan amidst the failure of last week's water dialogue between both nations.
• China has overtaken the United States in new energy investments, reports Investor's Business Daily.

• According to Business Week, Turkmenistan will begin production of a $2billion gas pipeline to the West to provide an alternative to Russian energy.
• Pakistan and India are looking to establish a deal over two large hydroelectric plants in Kashmir, according to the Daily Times.
• Though the reference may be a bit outdated, San Fransisco's Bay News uses Avatar to frame conflict minerals in the Congo.
• China has announced even tighter controls on their strategic rare earth resources, reports China's own People's Daily.
• Reuters reports that Iran may have plans to cut national subsidies on electricity, water and food to Afghan refugees who have moved into Iran. 

Yesterday I swung by CSIS for their fifth installment of their Game Changers and Visionaries series. The topic at hand yesterday had been innovations in the energy sector and what opportunities await us. 

The panel consisted of a wide array of energy innovators, including: Michael Grandoff, Head of Oil Independence Policies at Better Place; Josh Richman, Director of Business Development at BloomEnergy; Craig Hansen, Babcock & Wilcox’s VP of Nuclear Manufacturing (who seemed to be selling his company like he was Vince Offer, of ShamWow fame); and William B. Bonvillian, Director of MIT’s Washington office.

After using the opportunity to pick the panel’s collective brain about supply chain issues and exploring how they could affect the American energy revolution they were predicting (not to mention foreign relations and national security), I was met with a resounding response of “it’s a problem.”

With concerns over critical minerals, the recently introduced Military Energy Security Act and the Natural Security Blog’s Af-Pak week stirring around in my head, I was reminded of my CNAS co-worker (and cubical buddy), Matt Irvine’s guest blog post on minerals in Waziristan. Realizing there’d be no better time to call his piece back to your attention than a week focused on Natural Security concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan, I’d like to reintroduce Breaking the Safe Haven: Minerals in Waziristan.

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Daniel Saraceno, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Research Intern

PHOTO: Courtesy of Wikimedia

Yesterday’s attack on the U.S. consulate in Peshawar has brought the insurgency in western Pakistan back into the headlines. The consulate serves as the headquarters for ongoing American assistance programs in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and is a symbol of U.S.-Pakistani cooperation.

The FATA, specifically North and South Waziristan provinces, remains “al-Qaeda’s principal sanctuary” and hosts a syndicate of regional insurgent networks. The United States and Pakistan have increased pressure on militants in the lawless region during the last two years but have yet to solidify a permanent presence to counter militant influence. American foreign assistance and Pakistani development efforts offer the potential to deny the Taliban and its al Qaeda affiliated allies control over critical infrastructure and the local economy.

In remarks last week, Maj. Gen. Tariq Khan, the commander of the Pakistani Frontier Corps, lobbied for increased development efforts in the tribal areas, saying that “the world mustn’t neglect the area as it did after the 1989 Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, or it could fall prey again to al Qaeda and its allies.”

Development and maintenance of an extractive mineral industry could revolutionize the Waziristan economy and infrastructure in the long-term. Indeed, ongoing efforts in Afghanistan must be matched “across the border in FATA” according to Barnett Rubin and Abubakar Siddique in a 2006 USIP report. “FATA’s isolation can be broken only by improving its infrastructure…Proper utilization of several known mineral deposits in FATA will result in the growth of labor-intensive mining and manufacturing industries in marbles and precious stones.”

• Senator Kerry outlines the energy and climate bill on Grist.
• Pakistan may take India to international court over a hydropower project which could violate their tense water agreement, according to Asia Times Online.
• CNN says solar energy has a bright future in the United States.
• Russia builds nuclear energy ties with Iran, reports today's edition of Tehran Times.
• All Africa offers some details about the World Bank's efforts to help boost Nigeria's food security.