Center for a New American Security

 An ice island calved off of the Petermann Glacier, located in northwest Greenland, on August 5th.  This image, taken by NASA's EO-1 satellite, shows the 275 kilometer island's migration (upper-left quadrant of the image).  The calving was significant because it represented the single largest area loss for Greenland. Professor Jason Box, posting on the Byrd Polar Research Center's blog, points out that "while it is unreasonable to pin an individual cracking event of a glacier on Global Warming, even if enormous, the retreat of Petermann glacier is most certainly part of a pattern of global warming."  The Petermann Glacier has retreated 21 kilometers since 2000, and based on data and images taken since 1962, its retreat has reached a new minimum. The 2009-2010 winter and May 2010 were the warmest on record in Nuuk, Greenland.  Abnormally high air termperatures in Greenland have been linked with observations of reduced sea ice concentration and warming sea surface temperatures this year.

Photo: NASA-EO

Note from Alex: This is officially my last post on the Natural Security blog!  I have learned so much in my time at CNAS. I had a blast writing for the blog and I look forward to engaging with the Natural Security community for years to come.  Working with Christine and Will, as well as the rest of the CNAS staff, has been a truly wonderful experience. As always, thanks for reading!

As of Wednesday, devastating floods in Pakistan had directly affected 15.4 million people, damaging or destroying nearly a million homes and 3.2 million hectares of crops.  The satellite image above shows flooding near Kashmor, Pakistan on August 12, right before the second wave of flooding hit.  Flooding traveled down the Indus River from northwestern Pakistan to this area of southern Pakistan: the flood-swollen river is muddy and brown and has covered much of the city of Khewali and surrounding farmland.  Flooding is already causing a vast humanitarian disaster, and although the United States and others have committed aid and emergency assistance, the UN warns that this will not be enough. The floods could prove a major destabilizing factor in the country and the region.  

Photo: Courtesy of Robert Simmon, NASA.

Pakistani civilians prepare to board a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter during an evacuation mission in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan on August 5, 2010. The U.S. military is conducting humanitarian and disaster relief missions to assist Pakistanis in flood-stricken regions; floods have claimed more than 1,500 lives. Concerns have been raised that the Pakistani government's inadequate response efforts could fuel unrest and boost the appeal of militant groups, which could threaten U.S. security interests in the region.  

“Just based on our troops in the region, our goals in the region, our work with allies like India in the region — anything that destabilizes Pakistan or affects its government's ability to keep control of the country has enormous stakes for the United States on the security side,” CNAS fellow Christine Parthemore said on NPR's All Things Considered earlier this week.

Photo: Courtesy of Staff Sgt. Horace Murray and the U.S. Army.

The average Arctic sea ice extent for July 2010 was the second lowest on record (the record low was in July 2007).  The total ice extent was 8.4 million square kilometers, which was 1.71 million square kilometers less than the 1979-2000 average (shown in the above image by the magenta line).  According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the ice retreat for this July is part of a trend that shows a linear rate of decline of 6.4 percent.  Translation? It’s official: Arctic ice data is suggesting a retreating trend, not just a random pattern of expansion and decline.  Worse (at least for the polar bears), this means that the oldest, thickest ice is now being lost, not just the ice that accumulates between summer melting.

Photo: Courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, CO.

Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Poneman (pictured here) and Deputy Secretary of Defense Bill Lynn signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Wednesday at the White House Clean Energy Economy Forum on Energy Security.  The two departments will work together to strengthen cooperation on energy issues, including renewable alternative energy, smart grid and grid security, water efficiency and other areas.  Poneman stated that, "working together, we can speed the transition to a clean-energy economy, while helping protect our troops. Building a new energy future is the right thing to do to strengthen our national security, to promote economic prosperity, and to improve our environment. It is also the right thing to do for our men and women in uniform.” 

Check out Will and Christine's reactions to the news, and then have a good weekend everybody!

Photo: Courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy.

The New York Times reported this morning that the United States is willing to wade into a dispute over “a string of strategically sensitive islands in the South China Sea.” The above photo is an aerial image of one of the small islands in the Spratly island cluster. The Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea have long been a source of tension and even deadly dispute between Vietnam and China; they skirmished over them in 1988: dozens of Vietnamese sailors were killed, and several Vietnamese ships sunk.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, addressing a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), said, “The United States has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea,” the Times reported. The Times acknowledged that China “has long laid claim to islands in the South China Sea because they are rich in oil and natural gas deposits,” adding that Beijing  “has put American officials on notice that it will not brook foreign interference in the waters off its southeastern coast, which it views as a ‘core interest’ of sovereignty.”

Photo: Courtesy of flickr user Storm_Crypt.

Since July 1st, the DoD blog Armed with Science has been posting about ICESCAPE, a scientific mission undertaken by the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter HEALY, the United States’ most technologically advanced polar icebreaker (pictured above). First, let’s give them an earned shout-out for interagency collaboration. Next, a bit about the mission. According to the blog:

’Impacts of Climate on Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment’ is a multi-year NASA shipborne project to investigate the impacts of climate change on the ecology and biogeochemistry of the Arctic. During five weeks at sea, more than 40 scientists will sample the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the ocean and sea ice.

As our discussion with Charles Emmerson, author of The Future History of the Arctic highlighted, there’s a lot that we don’t know about the Arctic. As another of the USCG heavy icebreakers recently broke down, ICESCAPE’s ability to access and study the Arctic on the HEALY has become more important than ever. As Emmerson stated, “wanting to have more and (more capable) ships and other infrastructure up north is not just an academic exercise. It is also about how practically to deal with a range of possible future events – including an environmental disaster – and it is about demonstrating sovereignty and intent, backing up the diplomatic positions which the United States may take on Arctic issues.” We wish the HEALY and its crew luck on their journey as we officially conclude Arctic week here on the blog.

Photo: Courtesy of the U.S. Coast Guard

To conclude our climate change week, I think it’s important to point out that the U.S. military is giving credence to the connection between fuel, energy and climate change, too.  Here, Secretary of the Navy, the Honorable Ray Mabus, delivers remarks at the Climate and Energy Symposium at Johns Hopkins University in March.  (Don’t miss this Boston Globe op-ed on the Navy’s growing role in the Arctic as it continues to melt due to climate change.) Have a great weekend!

Photo: Courtesy of Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kevin S. O'Brien and the U.S. Navy.

In a way, this image speaks to two different issues the Natural Security team studies and is concerned about. It’s a NASA MODIS image of Tropical Storm Alex on Monday, June 28, 2010 as it churns over the Gulf.  As the storm gained strength, concerns mounted that the storm could disrupt plans to clean up the Gulf oil spill.  The storm also reminds us that climate change may be linked with an increase in more intense tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, suggesting that these types of seasonal storms may be a harbinger of future events.

Photo: Courtesy of NASA MODIS imaging.

You can't run the world's biggest international maritime exercise without lots of energy. Rim of the Pacific 2010 is a go this week in the Pacific, and to mark the occasion PACOM posted this photo of refueling with littoral combat ship USS Freedom and amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard (hat tip to @NavyNews for linking to pics of it). Have a great weekend everyone!

Photo courtesy of Pacific Command via Flickr Creative Commons.