CNAS Flashpoints is a comprehensive research tool on the South and East China Seas. Disputes, competition, and proposals for cooperation in East Asia’s crucial maritime domain have grown in frequency, especially during the past decade. As Asia has risen, so has the importance of these seas, which are vital for a globalized economy.
The geostrategic importance of these seas is rising, as both the regional maritime diplomacy and U.S. pronouncements about a strategic pivot suggest. The South China Seas joins the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, and perhaps half of the global tonnage of all maritime commerce passes through its narrow straits. The East China Sea is home to three of the world’s largest economies in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.
The Flashpoints Project makes available major new reports and other relevant research on the security of the South and East China Seas. Periodic bulletins will highlight individual issues and add new information for Flashpoint users. A map and timeline of major incidents depicts and catalogues dozens of events of record that have occurred since the mid-1950s. The Flashpoints portal will evolve and grow, aiming to provide the most authoritative information available on security in the South and East China Seas. Flashpoints, which is underwritten in large part by the Smith Richardson Foundation, is a project within the Asia-Pacific Security Program of CNAS.
In the capstone essay of Flashpoints, a 15-month CNAS project, Dr. Patrick M. Cronin assesses the security environment in the maritime domain surrounding China, while offering several policy recommendations and some reasons for optimism in the regional disputes. Dr. Cronin, Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at CNAS, notes in Flashpoints: The Way Forward in the East and South China Seas that there are several policy options available to leaders both in the United States and in the region that can mitigate the tensions and help reduce the chances of conflict in these critical seas.
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In Slipping Away? A South China Sea Code of Conduct Eludes Diplomatic Efforts, Ian Storey analyzes the tensions in the South China Sea that have continued unabated despite sustained attention from regional leaders and diplomats. In his Flashpoints Bulletin, Dr. Storey, who is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, provides insights into recent diplomatic developments, including a call for a binding Code of Conduct (CoC) by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) that, although increasingly unlikely, could have a positive impact on regional stability.
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In this Flashpoints Bulletin, The Sino-Philippine Maritime Row: International Arbitration and the South China Sea, Peter Dutton analyzes the ongoing territorial disputes between the Philippines and China over lands near the South China Sea, known as the West Philippines Sea in Manila. Dutton, who is Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, discusses the implications of these disputes for Southeast Asia’s political balance.
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Global energy trends are increasing demands for potential hydrocarbons in the South China Sea. As the global economy recovers from worldwide recession, demand for energy is steadily picking up speed, particularly among emerging economies in South and East Asia. As U.S. policymakers look for opportunities to promote cooperation over competition, Will Rogers argues in Finding Common Ground: Energy, Security and Cooperation in the South China Sea that understanding these emerging trends and their role in the broader South China Sea dispute will be essential to diffusing tensions and avoiding conflict.
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Recent actions by China’s non-military law enforcement vessels pose one of the most immediate threats to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. In The Challenge of Chinese Revisionism: The Expanding Role of China's Non-Military Maritime Vessels, CNAS experts Zachary M. Hosford and Ely Ratner argue that the United States, together with its allies and partners, will need a new strategic approach to meet this emerging challenge.
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In Influence for Sale? China's Trade, Investment and Assistance Policies in Southeast Asia, author Shanthi Kalathil argues that while China's significant investment in Southeast Asia has improved relations with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian neighbors in some ways, it has proved less effective than is commonly perceived. Kalathil contends that China’s development projects have often alienated local populations, and its nationalistic rhetoric over the South China Sea has increasingly strained its relations with other South China Sea claimants.
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In The Sansha Garrison: China's Deliberate Escalation in the South China Sea, CNAS Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that China is conducting a coordinated and deliberate campaign of coercive diplomacy in the South China Sea. Mastro discusses how China's recent decision to build a military garrison in the city of Sansha challenges two key aspects of the conventional wisdom in Washington about China’s South China Sea strategy: that China’s assertive behavior results from actions taken by the civilian and military agencies independently of the central government and that China has been moderating its policies toward the South China Sea since 2009.
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The East China Sea may be the most strategic location in all of Asia. While the media and policymakers have paid considerable attention to the geopolitical significance of the South China Sea, the East China Sea deserves equal attention. Like the South China Sea, it is rife with contested territorial claims, larger military buildups among the principal players of the region and a geopolitical significance that impinges even more directly on long-standing U.S. security commitments.
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China’s increasing belligerence in the South China Sea has led the new president of the Philippines, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, to make the most credible policy commitment in decades to improve Philippine military capabilities. China can now threaten the ability of the Philippines to access resources located in its exclusive economic zone.
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The U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region, but it will confront difficult challenges between now and 2025 that could greatly affect its future. In The China Challenge: Military, Economic and Energy Choices Facing the U.S.-Japan Alliance, released in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s visit to the United States, Dr. Patrick Cronin, Paul Giarra, Zachary Hosford and Daniel Katz argue that the United States and Japan must address a host of defense, economic and energy security issues over the next decade if the alliance is to maintain its power as China continues to rise.
June 9, 2012 — Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Dr. Patrick Cronin discusses the reasons for rising tensions between the United States and China in the South China Sea on Voice of America.
| more |June 4, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin said Panetta is trying to generate support for the Law of the Sea treaty among regional allies in the Pacific.
| more |June 1, 2012 — CNAS Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin said Japan and other U.S. allies worry that with defense cuts, it will be difficult for Washington to have a strong security presence in Asia.
| more |May 4, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin suggested in the Taipei Times that the White House might be prompted to make a policy shift on Taiwan.
| more |May 1, 2012 — In CNN Opinion, CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin writes that there are good reasons for retaining but dispersing U.S. military forces in the Okinawa region.
| more |May 1, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin analyzes a possible impetus for President Obama's decision regarding selling advanced F-16 aircraft to Taiwan in DEFCON Hill Blog.
| more |April 26, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Robert Kaplan comment on the importance of the South China Sea in USA Today.
| more |April 18, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin poses ten questions to the presidential candidates regarding Asian security for CNN Opinion.
| more |March 23, 2012 — CNAS Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Patrick Cronin explains the general global shift in power to Asia, especially regarding arms sales, in Inter Press Service.
| more |March 1, 2012 — The South China Sea is the future hot-point of conflict in the world, says CNAS Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Dr. Patrick Cronin to Steve Paikin on The Agenda.
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Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program Dr. Patrick Cronin spoke about the current trajectory of U.S.-DPRK relations at The Korea Society on May 1, 2012.
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"The Pacific Century" explored America’s foreign policy relationship with new economic powerhouses in East Asia and featured Robert Kaplan and Patrick Cronin, senior fellows at the Center for a New American Security.
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On April 4, 2012, CNAS hosted Dr. Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defense of the Republic of Singapore, for a speech on "Promoting Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific through Stable Military-to-Military Relationships". The event featured introductory remarks by the Honorable Jon Huntsman, former United States Ambassador to the Republic of Singapore. View photos from the event here.
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On April 4, 2012, CNAS hosted Dr. Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defense of the Republic of Singapore, for a speech on "Promoting Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific through Stable Military-to-Military Relationships". The event featured introductory remarks by the Honorable Jon Huntsman, former United States Ambassador to the Republic of Singapore. Read Dr. Ng's remarks here.
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On April 4, 2012, CNAS hosted Dr. Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defense of the Republic of Singapore, for a speech on "Promoting Peace and Stability in the Asia-Pacific through Stable Military-to-Military Relationships". The event featured introductory remarks by the Honorable Jon Huntsman, former United States Ambassador to the Republic of Singapore. Listen to audio from the event here.
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"Cooperation and Competition: China and the Asia-Pacific," a roundtable discussion hosted at the CNAS Fifth Annual Conference on June 2, 2011, featured: David E. Sanger, Chief Washington Correspondent of The New York Times; Dr. Bernard D. Cole, Professor of International History at the National War College; Dr. Patrick Cronin, CNAS Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow; Admiral Patrick M. Walsh, USN, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet; and Dr. Douglas Paal, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. You may read the transcript of the discussion here and watch the video online here.
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