Climate Change


Climate Change

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released nearly unanimous findings that it is "unequivocal" that the climate is and will continue to change, and that human generation of greenhouse gases is responsible for most related changes since the 1950s. Climate change will affect national security in the broadest sense, potentially affecting everything from economic growth to social stability. More narrowly, global climate change may spur sudden onset (i.e., hurricanes and floods) and slow onset (i.e., droughts and famines) disasters around the world, provoking humanitarian crises that will require military and other governmental responses. Climate change will alter the military operating environment, as well, requiring advanced planning and ongoing reevaluation.

Our Work:

Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and the Quadrennial Defense Review

The 2008 Defense Authorization Act requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to assess the impacts of climate change on DoD’s current and future missions and to integrate these concerns into its major strategic documents, beginning with the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Under this project, CNAS researches will meet with military and civilian experts in the Office of Secretary of Defense, individual military services, and regional combatant commands to discuss the state of scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts, and to explore current thinking within DoD about how to articulate and incorporate climate change concerns in the next QDR. We will also study what the implications of the QDR language on climate change will be for the services and combatant commands.

Promoting the Dialogue Events:

Read about our September 16, 2009 event, Climate Change, Energy, and Maritime Security: Promoting the Dialogue, here.

Read our working paper, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and the Quadrennial Defense Review.

Lost in Translation: Navigating the Gap between Climate Science and Policy

Today, the science community is making great strides in improved collection and analysis of climate change-related data, but this improved science is not necessarily informing national policy or the public debate. Scientific data and advanced modeling results are not always readily available to policy makers at the federal, state, and local levels; more to the point, the data are often not in a form that is useful to decision makers. To compound this gap, there is a decided lack of individuals and institutions that can serve as translators between science and policy. This CNAS project will convene members of the climate science and policy communities and develop a dialogue to better understand the nature of this problem and the needs and capabilities of both communities, as well as discuss solutions for improving future collaboration on climate change.

Lost in Translation Events:

Read about our September 30, 2009 Lost in Translation event here.
Read about our July 20, 2009 Lost in Translation event here.

War Game: Clout and Climate Change

It was just a game, but some of the participants played for keeps.

In July 2008, the Center for a New American Security hosted an international climate change “war game” to explore the national security implications of global climate change. Elements of the game will be featured in the ABC prime time documentary “Earth 2100” on June 2, 2009.

Military organizations and businesses around the world have long used such exercises to anticipate future developments and manage risk and uncertainty – and to test how plans, strategies, and ideas may hold up in a range of plausible futures. Generally, the lessons of these games have less to do with the “product” within the game than with the process of playing. So while the Climate Change War Game did not result in a fictitious international agreement that would cut greenhouse gases in China and transfer resources for adaptation from the United States to India, the debates and developments in the course of having such discussions were illuminating.

While some players left keenly disappointed that the event produced no breakthrough agreement or did not focus sufficiently on adaptation, those disappointments are, themselves, important lessons and exactly the reason organizations engage in such exercises.

To view summary findings from CNAS, click here. All of the game materials are posted on this page (scroll down below to 'Publications') – the pre-game briefing books for participants which include the background scenarios, the “moves” of the game, and materials generated in the course of the exercise – in addition to a policy brief of major findings. We encourage researchers and educational institutions to use these materials to stage similar games!

Click here to read more about our work on climate change.