Climate Change

Consumption

Consequences

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released nearly unanimous findings that it is "unequivocal" that the climate is and will continue to change, and that human generation of greenhouse gases is responsible for most related changes since the 1950s. Climate change will affect national security in the broadest sense, potentially affecting everything from economic growth to social stability. More narrowly, global climate change may spur sudden onset (i.e., hurricanes and floods) and slow onset (i.e., droughts and famines) disasters around the world, provoking humanitarian crises that will require military and other governmental responses. Climate change will alter the military operating environment, as well, requiring advanced planning and ongoing reevaluation.

Our Work:

PROMOTING THE DIALOGUE

The 2008 Defense Authorization Act required the Department of Defense (DoD) to assess the impacts of climate change on DoD’s current and future missions and to integrate these concerns into its major strategic documents, beginning with the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). Under this project, CNAS researches met with military and civilian experts in the Office of Secretary of Defense, individual military services, and regional combatant commands to discuss the state of scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts, and to explore current thinking within DoD about how to articulate and incorporate climate change concerns in the QDR. We then studied what the implications of climate change could be for the services and combatant commands.

Read the Report: Broadening Horizons: Climate Change and the U.S. Armed Forces

Read the working papers:

Commander Herbert E. Carmen, USN, Christine Parthemore and Will Rogers, On the Front Lines: Climate Change and the Combatant Commands (April 2010)
Christine Parthemore, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and U.S. Ground Forces (April 2010)
Will Rogers, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and America's Air Forces (April 2010)
Christine Parthemore, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and the Maritime Services (March 2010)
Christine Parthemore and Will Rogers, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and the Quadrennial Defense Review (January 2010)

Promoting the Dialogue Events:

Read about our September 16, 2009 event, Climate Change, Energy, and Maritime Security: Promoting the Dialogue, here.
Read about our April 28, 2010 release event, Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment, here.

LOST IN TRANSLATION

Today, the science community is making great strides in improved collection and analysis of climate change-related data, but this improved science is not necessarily informing national policy or the public debate. Scientific data and advanced modeling results are not always readily available to policy makers at the federal, state, and local levels; more to the point, the data are often not in a form that is useful to decision makers. To compound this gap, there is a decided lack of individuals and institutions that can serve as translators between science and policy. This CNAS project convened members of the climate science and policy communities and develop a dialogue to better understand the nature of this problem and the needs and capabilities of both communities, as well as discuss solutions for improving future collaboration on climate change.

Read the Report: Lost in Translation: Closing the Gap Between Climate Science and National Security Policy

Lost in Translation Events:

Read about our April 28, 2010 release event, Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment, here.
Read about our September 30, 2009 Lost in Translation event here.
Read about our July 20, 2009 Lost in Translation event here.

WAR GAME: CLOUT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

It was just a game, but some of the participants played for keeps.

In July 2008, the Center for a New American Security hosted an international climate change “war game” to explore the national security implications of global climate change. Elements of the game were featured in the ABC prime time documentary “Earth 2100” on June 2, 2009.

Military organizations and businesses around the world have long used such exercises to anticipate future developments and manage risk and uncertainty – and to test how plans, strategies, and ideas may hold up in a range of plausible futures. Generally, the lessons of these games have less to do with the “product” within the game than with the process of playing. So while the Climate Change War Game did not result in a fictitious international agreement that would cut greenhouse gases in China and transfer resources for adaptation from the United States to India, the debates and developments in the course of having such discussions were illuminating.

While some players left keenly disappointed that the event produced no breakthrough agreement or did not focus sufficiently on adaptation, those disappointments are, themselves, important lessons and exactly the reason organizations engage in such exercises.

To view summary findings from CNAS, click here. All of the game materials are posted on this page (scroll down below to 'Publications') – the pre-game briefing books for participants which include the background scenarios, the “moves” of the game, and materials generated in the course of the exercise – in addition to a policy brief of major findings. We encourage researchers and educational institutions to use these materials to stage similar games.

Click here to read more about our work on climate change.

Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment- Transcript
Speaker(s): The Honorable Carol M. Browner, Rear Admiral Philip H. Cullom
Type: Transcript
Date: 05/05/2010

On April 28, 2010, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted the event Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment featuring Carol Browner, the Assistant to the President for Climate Change and Energy and a panel that included David Kilcullen, Robert Kaplan, RADM Philip Cullom, and Christine Parthemore. Following the link is the full transcript.

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Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment- Keynote Address
Speaker(s): The Honorable Carol M. Browner
Type: Video
Date: 04/28/2010

The Honorable Carol M. Browner, Special Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change, delivered the keynote address at the recent CNAS event, "Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment."

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Natural Security: Navigating the Future Global Environment- Panel Discussion
Speaker(s): David Kilcullen, Robert Kaplan, Rear Admiral Philip H. Cullom
Type: Video
Date: 04/28/2010

On April 28, 2010, the Center for a New American Security hosted an event on the effects of climate change on our armed services. Following a keynote address by Carol Browner, the President's Special Assistant for Energy and Climate Change, a panel featuring David Kilcullen, RADM Philip Cullom, Robert Kaplan, and Christine Parthemore discussed the economic, political, and geostrategic dimensions of climate change and the role our national security apparatus will play in addressing them.

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Big Energy Map Conference: Opening Remarks
Speaker(s): Sharon Burke, Dr. Kurt M. Campbell, Zoe Baird, Frank Verrastro
Type: Video
Date: 05/04/2009

On April 29, 2009, the Center for a New American Security brought together over 80 leading experts in the energy and defense industries to discuss energy security in the context of U.S. national security.

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Pivot Point: Energy Security and Climate Change Panel
Type: Video
Date: 06/11/2008

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National Security Strategy Solarium II Part 1
Type: Video
Date: 02/20/2008

On February 20, 2008, the Center for a New American Security hosted "Solarium II: American Grand Strategy" at the Willard InterContinental Hotel in Washington, D.C. The event brought together prominent national security thinkers and practitioners for a one-day colloquium concerning America’s purpose and place in the world.

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