June 18, 2009 — The concept of five-party talks, which would exclude North Korea, is rapidly appearing to be gaining momentum as a viable option for coping with the latest North Korean nuclear crisis.
"It is yet a notion, but we did have talks with China and the United States suggesting five-nation talks should North Korea continue to boycott the negotiations," a top diplomatic source said yesterday on the condition of anonymity.
Wi Sung-lac, the nation's top nuclear negotiator, said the five-nation meeting was still "only an idea," although there may be some consensus among South Korea, the United States, China and Russia to gather without the North.
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan last week also hinted at a five-nation convention, possibly following the July ASEAN Regional Forum where a foreign ministers' meeting is scheduled between the concerned parties.
Yu, along with other diplomatic sources, said China holds the key as Beijing is host of the talks and still maintains close relations with the North,
Speculation about the five-party framework has been increasingly circulating in the aftermath of a summit between President Lee Myung-bak and his U.S. counterpart President Barack Obama. President Lee suggested that such a new framework of dialogue may be needed to draw the North back to the negotiations.
But officials stressed that the altered talks would neither be permanent nor a replacement for the six-nation discussions, as opposition political parties claim.
"It would be just another way of getting the North back to the nuclear talks," said Baek Seung-joo, a North Korean specialist at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.
Both Seoul and Washington have clearly indicated that whatever measures being taken against the North, including the latest United Nations Security Council resolution denouncing the North's second nuclear test, would all be aimed at attracting Pyongyang back to negotiations to help end its nuclear programs.
The discussions remain suspended since December 2008 when Pyongyang and Washington failed to agree on a nuclear verification protocol. In April, the reclusive communist nation vowed to stay away from the nuclear talks to defy a U.N. statement condemning its April 5 rocket launch.
Relations between the other five nations and the North further soured after Pyongyang's second nuclear test on May 25.
Even China and Russia have joined in the international chorus of criticism against the North.
Experts now believe Pyongyang is seeking official nuclear weapons state status. Also, its latest brinkmanship tactics are being viewed as a reflection of Kim Jong-il's efforts for a smooth transition of power to his youngest son Kim Jong-un, who is thought to be Jong-il's heir apparent.
Meanwhile, a U.S. think tank proposed that Washington take the initiative in forming a new regional security framework to break the current deadlock with Pyongyang and lure it back to the negotiating table.
In a report titled "No Illusions: Regaining the Strategic Initiative with North Korea," the Center for a New American Security suggested that the United States initiate a five-party dialogue involving China, Japan, South Korea and Russia to discuss and coordinate policy toward North Korea.
According to the report, a five-party dialogue will help the Obama administration achieve strategic goals of both strengthening its commitment to Northeast Asian allies and denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
"North Korea's departure from the six-party talks should not be allowed to derail the positive benefits of engaging in regional security discussions in Northeast Asia," the CNAS said in the report.
However, to differentiate the new dialogue from the existing framework, the group should consider a new venue for the meeting, such as in Europe or Southeast Asia, according to the report.
It said the creation of a new dialogue will provide benefits for U.S. policymakers as it will ensure the presence of "an essential forum for greater regional stability and cooperation" in Northeast Asia. The five-party talks will also demonstrate that U.S. strategy is not captive to "North Korean gamesmanship."
What should the new framework do then?
The think tank suggested the five parties continue to voice their opposition to a nuclear North Korea on a regular basis by issuing statements and a joint declaration denouncing provocative actions, and enforce strong sanctions.
"(It) will provide a clear regional voice calling on North Korea to halt its irresponsible behavior and would send an important message that the five parties will no longer allow North Korea to play them off against each other," the CNAS said.
The proposed five-way forum is also likely to help the parties manage the complex security environment in the region. The CNAS stressed the importance of "candid exchanges and confidence-building" achieved through the six-party talks, adding the five-party talks would also help reduce animosities and resolve irritations among member states.