Is It the Right Time to Leave Iraq?
Journalist: Wolf Blitzer
Original Post: Is It the Right Time to Leave Iraq?
Type: Interview
March 1, 2010 — BLITZER: Less than a week until a crucial election, violence is on the rise right now in Iraq, even as the U.S. moves to -- toward a troop drawdown.
Should the Obama administration rethink its exit strategy right now?
Let's talk about that and the elections with Tom Ricks.
He's a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security here in Washington and the author of two best-selling books, "Fiasco" and "The Gamble." Excellent books, indeed.
Tom, thanks for coming in.
You've been a frequent critic of the way this war was conducted in Iraq, over the years, yet you -- you wrote a piece in "The New York Times" the other day which sort of -- I said, I jumped back and I said, whoa, Tom Ricks is saying don't just keep the schedule for withdrawal, but keep the troops longer there -- keep them there longer than the Obama administration wants them in Iraq. This is a -- a dramatic change for you.
TOM RICKS, CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, BLOGGER, FOREIGNPOLICY.COM: Yes. I don't think it's a great idea to keep the troops in Iraq, I just think it's the least bad idea. I worry that if you leave too quickly, that you could have the conditions of a civil war that could become a regional war.
And I worry that by trying to keep to a timetable, the Obama administration is repeating one of the mistakes of the Bush administration -- rushing to failure. We have done it again and again in Iraq and I worry we may do it again.
BLITZER: And you say keep the troops a little bit longer -- unknown how long. But don't -- because they're all supposed to be out by the end of 2011. And all combat forces are supposed to be out by the end of this August.
RICKS: The combat forces thing is a joke. They're going to have six or seven combat brigades in Iraq, but they're going to call them advisory and like -- and help brigades (INAUDIBLE)... BLITZER: Trainers.
RICKS: Yes. I mean -- and then, I actually think we're going to have 30,000 troops there for many, many years to come.
BLITZER: Really?
RICKS: Yes.
BLITZER: Because you -- at the end of your article, you write this: "The best argument against keeping troops in Iraq is the one some American military officers make, which is that a civil war is inevitable and that by staying, all we are doing is postponing it."
RICKS: Yes...
BLITZER: You -- you...
RICKS: My response to that is, OK, it buys you some time. That's not a bad thing if the alternative is a civil war. Maybe you can't avoid a civil war forever. Maybe it is inevitable. I don't feel like gambling to find out.
BLITZER: General Odierno is in charge of all U.S. military operations in Iraq. He's hinting that maybe troops will stay a -- a little bit longer, they won't be able to make this withdrawal schedule.
But I interviewed the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, Chris Hill, the other day. And I asked him if the schedule can be met, the schedule the Obama administration has put forward.
Listen to what he told me.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTOPHER HILL, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ: I mean we work on this every day. There's a lot of transition involved and a lot of things going from military to civilians, military to Iraqis. But we are on schedule.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: "But we are on schedule," he says. So he seems to think that schedule is going to happen.
RICKS: Something will happen. They'll -- they'll get a lot of troops out this year. But there's a lot of fancy footwork going on that his comments kind of put a smokescreen over.
General Odierno has made it clear to the president and the secretary of Defense he wants an additional combat brigade past the August 30 deadline. Odierno also would like, I think, a larger military presence.
I think that we have a real gap right now developing between the military and civilian officials in this country about the nature of the future American presence.
BLITZER: Is there a split between Odierno and Chris Hill?
Is that what you're saying?
RICKS: Between Odierno and Chris Hill. I think, also, between the uniformed military generally and Obama officials who say, look, this president was elected to get us out of Iraq and that's what he wants to do.
BLITZER: The elections are this Sunday. And a lot of people are going to be wondering, will these be free and fair Democratic elections or not.
What do you think?
RICKS: I think there will be a lot of accusations of fraud, especially from the Sunnis; a lot of accusations of Iranian interference.
The real thing that worries me is not so much election day as the three or four months that follow it, when they try to put a new government together. Remember after those purple fingalore (ph) elections back at the end of '05, it was the period of government formation in '06 when the civil war began then.
You have all the same conditions now, except one big change -- the Americans won't be around to stop the civil war this time.
BLITZER: So you think a civil war is still possible despite "Newsweek" magazine -- I don't know if you saw the cover of the new issue. They seem to think it's a done deal, it's -- it's going to be -- it's going to be a positive democratic excellent Iraq that moves forward.
RICKS: I don't know what they're smoking over at "Newsweek" these days.
BLITZER: You saw that cover of "Newsweek" magazine.
RICKS: Yes.
BLITZER: It was a very upbeat piece that the surge has worked, stuff is -- is really moving in the right direction.
When I take a look at Iraq, I deeply worry about that Iranian influence, among other factors.
RICKS: And so does General Odierno. I was struck by some of the comments that he's made. In a very good column by David Ignatius in "The Washington Post" the other day, it listed the Iranian acts, including meeting with Ahmed Chalabi to discuss the various Shiite candidates and who they were going to support.
BLITZER: Ahmed Chalabi all of a sudden reemerging as a major player in Iraq right now, to the dismay of a lot of officials here in Washington.
Tom Ricks, thanks very much.
We'll talk next week maybe.
RICKS: You're welcome.
BLITZER: We'll see what happens on Sunday in the elections.
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Topic(s): Iraq, Regional Security Challenges, Terrorism, Irregular Warfare and Crime, Development and Diplomacy, U.S. Military Forces & Operations, U.S. National Security and Defense Policy
Project(s): Iraq
People: Thomas E. Ricks
