Center for a New American Security

Source: Greenwire
Journalist: Dina Fine Maron
Original Post: Paper Urges Army, National Guard to Assess Global Warming's Impact
Type: News Article

April 9, 2010 — The Army and National Guard must increase their efforts to assess global warming's potential impacts on the United States and its military missions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to a new paper by the Center for a New American Security.

"Identifying the problem is the first step," the paper's author, Christine Parthemore, said in an interview. "It's better to actively research this question instead of leaving it to speculation, which is what is happening now."

The Army will likely have to address concerns about the migration of large numbers of people away from areas affected by climate-related weather changes and natural disasters, her paper states, and the Army Corps of Engineers will likely need to pay increased attention to protecting water supplies and flood-control infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Parthemore said, the National Guard can expect to be called on to assist communities affected by natural disasters at home and to address border security issues.

Developing a better understanding of future agriculture and related water supply concerns in Central Asia as well will allow the military to "secure and stabilize" the countries to promote economic growth, she said.

Models developed in partnership with scientists may be essential to mitigating future risks related to climate change, Parthemore wrote.

"For the U.S. ground forces, delaying concerted research on this issue for too long increases the risks that speculation, rather than security priorities or solid methods, will drive research needs," she wrote.

For guidance, she said, the Army and National Guard can look to the Navy, which has commissioned papers on climate change issues. "By systematically identifying the most likely change-related issues it will face," she wrote, "the Navy has been able to build solid policies and plans without an oversized dedication of resources."

In recent years, the Navy has studied how melting sea ice will affect Arctic waters and increase competition for the mineral-rich seafloor, incorporating such findings into its strategies and war games, according to Rear Adm. David Titley, who is leading the Navy's climate task force. His group produced a paper on the Arctic last year and expects to release another paper assessing more general climate change impacts on the service this month.

The services cannot tackle climate change alone, Parthemore said. "It's going to require a lot of research, and it's going to require working with a lot of different groups," she said.

Parthemore added, "It might not be a question of funding so much as the scientific community won't provide this type of information to the Army and the National Guard until they signal what they need."

The model for such cooperation has already been established, Parthemore said. The Pentagon's "Quadrennial Defense Review," which was released in February and incorporated climate change considerations for the first time, depended on data provided by the Energy Department's national laboratories