China Pushing New Talks with North Korea
Journalist: Chico Harlan
Original Post: China pushing new talks with North Korea
Type: News Article
August 31, 2010 — TOKYO - China is in the midst of a sales-pitch. It's pushing for the resumption of six-party talks, the process concocted seven years ago to end a North Korean nuclear program that hasn't yet ended. This time, China says North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is on board. And in recent days China has sent its nuclear envoy to South Korea and Japan, touting the six-party idea to Washington's closest Asian allies.
According to officials in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, China has emerged as the driving force - and perhaps the only force - pushing for the resumption of six-party talks, which Beijing sees as the best way to maintain security and status quo on the Korean peninsula.
China has proposed a three-step process that calls first for bilateral talks between North Korea and the U.S., perhaps held in Beijing, Pyongyang or New York. That would be followed by a meeting of nuclear delegation leaders representing the six nations: Russia, Japan, South Korea, the U.S, China and North Korea. Lastly, barring provocations from Pyongyang, the six countries would resume full-fledged talks for the first time since 2008.
But even as the Obama administration seeks palatable alternatives to its pressure-and-punishment stance toward North Korea, the six-party process seems, at best, months down the road.
Although there is no agreement in Washington about the best way to proceed, analysts and experts on U.S. policy describe an overall cynicism about the usefulness of six-party talks, deriding them as a playground for Kim Jong Il to make promises which he subsequently ignores.
With the U.S. having announced new sanctions against North Korea on Monday, many analysts and officials now envision an upcoming period of strategic patience, where the U.S. consults closely with Seoul and possibly explores a new framework for dealing with Pyongyang - an alternative to six-party talks - over the next months.
China attempted to build momentum for talks this week, as Kim Jong Il traveled by armored train through its northeastern countryside. Analysts and North Korea watchers believe that Kim's trip held several purposes, both pragmatic and symbolic. He sought economic aid from China, Pyongyang's chief benefactor. He wanted to build support for an upcoming power transfer to his son. Just as important, in visiting two Chinese landmarks associated with his father, he wanted to reinforce the Kim family narrative - the sacrosanct underpinning of his reclusive nation.
But following Kim's return to Pyongyang, China emphasized North Korea's appetite for six-party talks. The Xinhua news agency said that Kim, who met with Chinese president Hu Jintao, sought an "early resumption" of the talks as a way to ease tensions. He also said, according to Xinhua, that the North Korean stance toward denuclearization remained unchanged. Notable to U.S. officials, however, was the rhetoric from North Korea: The state-run Korean Central News Agency made note of Kim's trip, but made no mention of six-party talks or disarmament.
"It's just stretching incredulity to think that six-party talks are some panacea where the region's problems disappear," said Patrick Cronin, senior director at the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. "This is the same Kim Jong Il who said, months ago, that six-party talks are dead. And now what are we to believe? That Kim Jong Il is very serious this time?"
Among North Korean experts, South Korea is viewed as the six-party nation most reluctant about reengagement. In recent weeks, however, Seoul has demonstrated modest changes in the stance toward its neighbors. In the wake of an investigation that blamed Pyongyang for the March torpedoing of the Cheonan, South Korea cut off almost all trade and aid to the North. It also said that an apology for the Cheonan sinking was a prerequisite for reengagement.
Foreign Minister Yu Myung Hwan said last week that the North needed to disable its nuclear facilities and permit international inspections prior to any engagement. According to the Yonhap news agency, citing an unnamed foreign ministry official, South Korea has backed away from its demand that an apology is also necessary. And Tuesday, South Korea's Red Cross also pledged $8.4 million worth of aid to North Korea to help its recovery from recent flooding, which analysts interpreted as another effort to drop the temperature on the peninsula.
Said one U.S. official in Seoul, who requested anonymity to freely share his opinion: "I think everybody is looking for a way forward and recognizing, 'What do we do if there's no apology?' Because that's not likely. So absent an apology how do we motivate them to get back to talking? Effort on everybody's part. There's an understanding that talks won't happen right away."
Japan could also be a hard sell. Tuesday, Chinese nuclear envoy Wu Dawei was in Tokyo to meet with Japan's Foreign Minister, Katsuya Okada. But Okada, according to multiple Japanese media reports, told Wu that the climate isn't yet right for such engagement - particularly given South Korea's lingering anger over the Cheonan. Talks shouldn't begin, Okada said, until North Korea abandons its nuclear program.
In Washington, according to numerous sources familiar with internal discussions, senior officials see growing reason to want some form of engagement with North Korea - though the view is hardly unanimous. But those officials also see the peril of altering policy following a summer of joint military drills and sanctions.
One former senior official summarized the situation like this: Engagement could help U.S. security. But it's politically dangerous to engage North Korea without first drawing concessions. If evidence of North Korean denuclearization is the prerequisite to engagement, however, engagement will never happen.
"I think the administration's feeling right now, is, They're not comfortable with having zero contact with the regime," said Michael Green, a former Asia specialist at the National Security Council. "At some point you keep adding all this pressure on North Korea, it's the right thing to do, and then think - [Uh oh], what happens if they escalate? ⦠We don't want to get into an escalation ladder. People think we've got to have a little cap on this. We've got to chill."
Topic(s): Regional Security Challenges, Development and Diplomacy, U.S. National Security and Defense Policy, WMD and Nuclear Proliferation
Project(s): Asia-Pacific Security
People: Dr. Patrick Cronin
