China’s rise shows the potential to be one of the most significant geopolitical events in modern history, rivaling America’s ascent more than a century ago. The international financial crisis that originated in the West has accelerated China’s arrival as a global player, and the marks of its influence are everywhere: on global financial flows, the environment, energy supplies, nuclear proliferation, North Korea, and in every region of the world. Yet China continues to be plagued by domestic challenges – the institutional decay of the Communist Party, ethnic unrest, and the rapid depletion of its natural resources – which suggests its rise may be far from smooth.
The U.S.-China relationship holds the keys to addressing some of the most pressing challenges of the modern epoch. At the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) between the two nations in the summer of 2009, President Obama emphasized that the U.S.-China relationship is “as important as any other bilateral relationship in the world.” The United States and China are simply too big to not work together and both sides are prepared for a future of growing interdependency and mutual engagement. The U.S. must also face squarely the challenges that China’s rise poses to Asia and the world, and persistent disagreements that will continue to animate their relationship.
One of the main goals of CNAS’s Asia program is to devise a future path for America’s engagement of China that can expand bilateral cooperation in areas of shared strategic interest and encourage increasing accountability from the Chinese regime, while appropriately managing the challenges ahead. In past years, CNAS has engaged with leaders in the United States and China on bilateral issues, contributed testimony to Congress and commentary in the media on China, and produced a working paper on China’s responses to the Iraq War.
On September 22, 2009, in anticipation of the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, CNAS released a long-term strategic assessment of China’s rise and its implications for U.S. policy in Asia, China’s Arrival: A Framework for a Global Relationship. The report, authored by Ambassador Linton Brooks, Dr. Joshua Busby, Abraham Denmark, Lindsey Ford, Dr. Michael Green, Dr. G. John Ikenberry, Robert Kaplan, Nirav Patel, Daniel Twining, and Dr. Richard Weitz, takes into account the global significance of China’s rise, examines the ever expanding U.S.-China relationship, and proposes a strategy for future engagement. The report raises a number of pertinent issues in the U.S.-China relationship, including energy security and climate change, China’s emerging naval strategy, nuclear proliferation and arms control, and offers practical recommendations to Washington policymakers for the future of U.S.-China relations.