Center for a New American Security

Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security

Washington, October 26, 2011 — The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report on October 26, 2011, Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security, by Richard Danzig, Chairman of the CNAS Board of Directors and former Secretary of the Navy.

In Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security, Danzig examines the nature of prediction in national security and offers strategic recommendations for how the U.S. Department of Defense can improve its predictive capabilities while also preparing for predictive failure.

The Department of Defense relies on predictions about future threats and potential scenarios to forecast needs and select and acquire major weapons systems. Yet history has shown that an uncertain national security environment dictates the need for adaptability and flexibility when predictions are incorrect, and the U.S. military must be better prepared when predictions are wrong.

Danzig recommends that the Department of Defense adopt new strategies to improve its predictive abilities while also preparing to be unprepared. He suggests narrowing the time between conceptualizing programs and bringing them to realization; building more for the short-term and designing operationally flexible equipment; and valuing diversity and competition. Policymakers will always drive in the dark, but by adopting these recommendations, they may better respond to unpredictable conditions and prepare the United States for unforeseen threats.

Download Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security.

###

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.