Experts Examine U.S. Policy Impact of Middle East Upheaval, Address Risks of Preventive War with Iran in Two CNAS Studies
Washington, June 6, 2012 — Washington, June 6, 2012 - With
change sweeping the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the
risk of a nuclear-armed Iran rising, the authors of two new reports released
today by the Center for a New American Security address the challenges and
opportunities in the region for U.S. policymakers and offer recommendations for
mitigating the former and taking advantage of the latter.
In Strategic
Adaptation: Toward a New U.S. Strategy in the Middle East, Duke
University's Dr. Bruce W. Jentleson, CNAS Senior Fellow Dr. Andrew M. Exum,
CNAS Visiting Fellow Melissa G. Dalton and CNAS Researcher J. Dana Stuster
argue that the United States must "recalibrate its strategies" to
address the sweeping changes that have taken place across the Middle East since
January 2011. "The real trap for U.S. strategy in the Middle East,"
they say, "is denialism - an unwillingness to recognize how profoundly the
strategic context has changed and the need for strategies that reflect this
changed context." The authors suggest a course of "strategic
adaptation" that would focus on near-term crises - such as the
Iranian nuclear weapons program, civil wars in Syria and Yemen and fresh
tensions between Israel and Egypt. Their approach also calls for a simultaneous
response to regional trends - such as the return of politics to the Arab world,
reduced U.S. dependency on the Persian Gulf states and fundamental tensions in
the U.S. relationship with Israel - that will affect the region, along with
U.S. engagement, for decades to come.
Download Strategic
Adaptation: Toward a New U.S. Strategy in the Middle East.
Focusing on the threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran and
the attendant risks of an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, CNAS experts Senior
Fellow Colin Kahl, Visiting Fellow Melissa G. Dalton and Research
Associate Matthew Irvine state that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear
weapons should remain an urgent priority, but caution against rushing into
preventive war, which, in their view, would risk making the threat
worse. In Risk and
Rivalry: Iran, Israel and the Bomb, the authors argue that despite
the abhorrent threats by some Iranian leaders to "wipe Israel off the
map," the actual behavior of the Islamic Republic over the past three
decades indicates that the regime "is not suicidal" and is unlikely
to deliberately use nuclear weapons, or transfer a nuclear device to terrorists
to use, against Israel. However, they point out that a nuclear-armed Iran
would be a much more dangerous adversary, probably increasing its lethal
support to proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas and committing more brazen acts
of terrorism abroad. "[U]ntil Iran appears poised to weaponize its nuclear
capability," the authors recommend that "the emphasis should remain
on using economic pressure and diplomacy to convince the Iranians to change
course." They conclude that all options, including preventive
military action, should remain on the table, but force should be seen as a last
resort, should be contemplated only by the United States and should be employed
only under stringent conditions.
Download Risk
and Rivalry: Iran, Israel and the Bomb.
Exum and Jentleson will also discuss their report at the CNAS annual conference
on Wednesday, June 13 during a session on U.S. Strategy in the Middle East
after the Arab Spring. Kahl will speak during a session on National Security
Strategy for the Next Decade. Learn more about the conference and register here.
The conference will also be webcast live
starting at 8:45 a.m. EDT on June 13.
Stay
up to date on all CNAS news and events by following @CNASdc on Twitter and visiting
us on Facebook. Strategic
Adaptation and Risk
and Rivalry are also available online here
in e-reader and Kindle format on June 13.
For all press inquiries, contact Deputy Director of External Relations Sara
Conneighton at (202) 457-9429 or sconneighton@cnas.org.
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The Center for a New American Security(CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that
develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense
policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security
leaders of today and tomorrow.
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