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Iran: Assessing U.S. Strategic Options
Author(s): Dr. James N. Miller, Christine Parthemore, Dr. Kurt M. Campbell, Ambassador Dennis Ross, Dr. Suzanne Maloney, Ashton B. Carter, Vali Nasr, Richard N. HaassType of Publication: ReportDate: 09/12/2008Dealing with Iran and its nuclear program will be an urgent priority for the next president. In order to evaluate U.S. policy options, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) convened a bipartisan group of experts on foreign policy and national security, retired military personnel, former diplomats and other government officials, and specialists on Iran and the region. Ambassador Dennis Ross presented a paper on diplomatic strategies for dealing with Iran, and Dr. Suzanne Maloney wrote on potential Iranian responses. Dr. Ashton Carter evaluated various U.S. military options, and Dr. Vali Nasr described likely Iranian reactions and other potential impacts. Ambassador Richard Haass considered the challenges of living with a nuclear Iran. Each of these papers represents an important contribution to a much-needed national discussion on U.S. policy toward Iran. Based on these papers and expert group discussion, as well as additional research and analysis, three CNAS authors (Dr. James Miller, Christine Parthemore, and Dr. Kurt Campbell) proposed that the next administration pursue “game-changing diplomacy” with Iran. While both Iran and the international community would be better off if Iran plays ball, game-changing diplomacy is designed to improve prospects for the United States and the international community irrespective of how Iran responds.
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Shaping the Iraq Inheritance
Type of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008American policy in Iraq will undergo two critical transitions throughout the remainder of 2008 and into early 2009: movement to a new U.S. posture in Iraq; and a wartime transition to a new administration. It is vital that both are handled in a way that best advances U.S. interests in Iraq and the region. Yet neither is being paid sufficient attention. Shaping the Iraq Inheritance outlines America’s interests in Iraq and the region, analyzes recent security and political trends, presents a framework for understanding U.S. strategic options, and makes recommendations for how the Bush administration, the military, and Congress can best prepare for the dangerous period ahead.
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The Power of Balance: America in iAsia
Type of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008As the tides of influence and power shift from Atlantic to Pacific shores – propelled by the remarkable ascents of China and India and the economic growth of an entire region that now accounts for over 30 percent of global GDP – America must reassert its strategic presence in Asia.
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Unfortunately, many strategists shape policies toward the region through either a Cold War or anti-terrorism lens; both are limited in dealing with Asian dynamism. The region must be described in creative and forward-looking terms –Kurt Campbell and his team from the Center for a New American Security deem it iAsia – and U.S. strategy must be made anew to match. -
A Strategy for American Power: Energy, Climate, and National Security
Author(s): Sharon E. Burke, Christine ParthemoreType of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008To protect the American way of life and secure the future, the United States needs an energy security strategy that will cut both our dependence on oil and our greenhouse gas emissions. Today, the energy we use keeps our economy and security dependent on unstable and hostile states, vulnerable to natural disasters, and subject to the consequences of climate change. With a comprehensive strategy to change both our supply of fuels and our demand, the United States can win the energy war, just as the strategy of containment helped win the Cold War. This report gives an overview of the nature of the energy challenge, the main elements of a strategy for energy security, and then offers a plan of action for how to actually execute that strategy.
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Making America Grand Again: Toward a New Grand Strategy
Type of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008Years of debate over the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the so-called “war on terror” have prevented Americans from grappling with the deeper challenges posed by changes in the international system. Beyond the threats posed by terrorism, new great powers such as India and China are rising, the process of globalization is accelerating, and the challenges of climate change and energy security grow more ominous by the day. The absence of an overarching strategic framework beyond simple debates over wartime tactics has contributed to an erosion of America’s position in the world. The authors of Making America Grand Again argue that America’s leaders must broaden their strategic aperture and recognize the value in renewing their commitment to sustaining the pillars of the global system – common global goods such as stability in key regions, a vibrant global economy, and fair access to the global commons. Arguing that America’s Cold War strategy consisted of two parts – containing the Soviet Union while building and sustaining a resilient international system – the authors lay out a case for why sustaining America’s power and influence in the 21st century requires reinvesting in, and innovating within, the very global architecture that helped make America a superpower.
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Finding Our Way: Debating American Grand Strategy
Author(s): The Honorable Michèle A. Flournoy, Shawn Brimley, Robert J. Art, LTG Karl Eikenberry, Dr. Barry R. Posen, Dr. Frederick W. Kagan, Sarah Sewall, Vikram J. SinghType of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008In a critical election year, the debate over America’s national security strategy has been overwhelmed by a persistent focus on essentially tactical issues such as: the number of troops in Iraq; whether or not America should engage in diplomacy with Iran; and the status of the search for Osama Bin Laden. Important as such issues are, they do not address the more critical and fundamental arguments over America’s purpose and place in the world. Finding Our Way attempts to bridge the gap in the current national security debate by bringing together ideas from across the academic and policy spectrums in one accessible volume. Edited by Michèle Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, and including contributions from Robert Art, G. John Ikenberry, Barry Posen, Frederick Kagan, and Sarah Sewall, Finding Our Way provides a compelling and accessible snapshot of the current grand strategy debate. Readers will find essays advocating contrasting ideas on vital U.S. interests, key threats facing America, the utility of international partnerships and alliances, the use of military force, the implications of Iraq on American strategy, and the need to restore a positive view of American power. This volume is an ideal primer for scholars and students interested in the contemporary debate over American power and purpose in a changing world.
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Unfinished Business: U.S. Overseas Military Presence in the 21st Century
Author(s): Dr. Michael O’HanlonType of Publication: ReportDate: 06/11/2008The next American president will inherit an overseas military base realignment process begun in the first term of the George W. Bush administration. This realignment, guided by an effort known as the Global Posture Review (GPR), was perhaps former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld s chief intellectual and policy accomplishment during his six-year tenure at the Pentagon. Unlike his likely warfighting legacy, particularly in regard to Iraq, the GPR is on generally sound conceptual foundations. But a successful outcome for the Global Posture Review, roughly halfway implemented as of early 2008, will depend on the next U.S. administration refining numerous rough edges of the current plan and redefining the broader national security policy context in which any base realignment will inevitably be viewed.
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Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change
Author(s): Dr. Kurt M. Campbell, Sharon E. Burke, Dr. Richard Weitz, Dr. Jay Gulledge, Christine Parthemore, Leon Fuerth, Alexander T.J. Lennon, J.R. McNeill, Derek Mix, Peter Ogden, John Podesta, Julianne Smith, R. James WoolseyType of Publication: BookDate: 05/22/2008Global climate change poses not only environmental hazards but profound risks to planetary peace and stability as well. Climatic Cataclysm gathers experts on climate science, oceanography, history, political science, foreign policy, and national security to take the measure of these risks.
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Pivot Point: New Directions for American Security
Date:
June 11, 2008 (All day)
Location:
The Willard Intercontinental
1401 Pennsylvania Ave NW
Washington, DC 20004
Pivot Point: New Directions for American Security was a one-day CNAS conference highlighting the major foreign policy and national security challenges facing our nation in the critical time ahead.
Introduction & Opening Remarks | Session 1 | Session 2 | Luncheon Keynote | Session 3 | Session 4 | Session 5 | Afternoon Keynote
INTRODUCTION AND OPENING REMARKS
Speakers
The Honorable Dr. William J. Perry
Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor, Stanford
Chairman, CNAS Board of Directors
The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright
Principal, Albright Group LLC
CNAS Board of Directors
The Honorable Richard L. Armitage
President, Armitage International
CNAS Board of Directors
Video | Audio | Transcript
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SESSION ONE: A NEW U.S. GRAND STRATEGY
Summary | The first conference panel explored American grand strategy. Chaired by Joseph Nye, panelists included Michèle Flournoy and Derek Chollet from CNAS, Mitchell Reiss from the College of William and Mary, William Kristol from The Weekly Standard, and G. John Ikenberry from Princeton University.
Michèle Flournoy presented key ideas from CNAS’ new report, “Making America Grand Again,” and spoke both of the need for policymakers to widen the strategic aperture and take a new look at the essence of America’s core global interests. Derek Chollet gave a brief summary of his new book America Between the Wars (co-authored with James Goldgeier), which explores the era between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 9/11 attacks.
The panelists then engaged in a lively exchange over America’s purpose and place in the world. Mitchell Reis questioned whether in the complex modern era it is truly possible to articulate a compelling grand strategy. William Kristol argued that while grand strategy and foreign policy doctrines are important, “deeds matter most.” G. John Ikenberry endorsed the theme of the CNAS report and the need for policymakers to develop a grand strategy that centers on the need for America to positively shape the international system. Joseph Nye concluded the panel by arguing that America needs a strategy that can help policymakers “create opportunities and meet a diffuse set of challenges.”
Video | Audio | Transcript
Download Finding Our Way: Debating American Grand Strategy
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Summary | CNAS’s “Pivot Point” conference on June 11, 2008, featured a panel on Iraq chaired by Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, USMC (ret.) with CNAS fellow and Georgetown University professor Colin Kahl, GEN Jack Keane, USA (ret.), and Center for American Progress fellow Brian Katulis.
Dr. Kahl presented the findings of CNAS’s new report, “Shaping the Iraq Inheritance.” He argued that the causes recent security progress in Iraq are complex and reversible. Accordingly, a new strategy of “conditional engagement” is necessary to preserve current gains and make the Iraqi government take further steps toward stability and self-reliance. Under a conditional engagement policy, the U.S. military would begin a phased withdrawal of combat forces to signal its intent to leave and use its remaining presence as bargaining leverage to compel the Iraqi government to take further steps toward political reconciliation.
GEN Keane asserted that the United States is close to achieving victory in the Iraq war, thanks in large part to the strategy shift in 2007 and the Iraqi people’s rejection of al Qaeda and the Mahdi Army. Mr. Katulis argued that “conditional engagement” in practice may not be different from the Bush administration’s behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iraqi government and called for a broader regional strategic reassessment of American Middle East policy.
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LUNCHEON KEYNOTE SPEAKER, LIMITATIONS OF TERRORISTS... AND OURSELVES
Summary | The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) was honored to have Richard Danzig, former Secretary of the Navy and a national security advisor to Senator Obama (D-IL), provide a speech which complemented the annual event on national security strategy. Speaking from a non-partisan position, Mr. Danzig laid out a thesis offering a shift in perspective on how policy planners, senior advisors, and defense analysts approach their work.
Mr. Danzig explained how bioterrorism is one of the greatest threats to the United States and how a myopic focus on al Qaeda and the Iraq War could be disastrous. He provided a schoolhouse lecture to posit a refreshed way of thinking about this two-headed problem, bioterrorism and Islamic terrorism. Both issues are linked, however, one must cognitively isolate these threats to best defend against them. Danzig suggested security analysts require a form of “competitive thinking” to find real results.
The former Secretary encouraged those in the room to question existing assumptions and norms of our enemies and our own institutions. Knowing one’s shortcomings is paramount when improving a culture of defense analysts who must challenge pedagogy and look to new outlets for gathering intelligence. Solving national security problems will be difficult for the next administration, but Mr. Danzig says problems are best attained with a comprehensive and introspective approach. The government must work collaboratively with non-government institutions, academics, and practitioners to overcome our own strengths and weaknesses and create a winnable strategy for the future. Senior government officials must open the national security establishment to criticism. If we know ourSELFs and encourage oversight, we will invite new thinking and better prepare the war fighter and strategist for blurring battlefield.
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SESSION THREE: IRAN – U.S. STRATEGIC OPTIONS
Summary | Dealing with Iran and its nuclear program will be an urgent priority for the next president. In order to evaluate U.S. policy options, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) convened a bipartisan group of experts on foreign policy and national security, retired military personnel, former diplomats and other government officials, and specialists on Iran and the region.
Ambassador Dennis Ross presented a paper on diplomatic strategies for dealing with Iran, and Dr. Suzanne Maloney wrote on potential Iranian responses. Dr. Ashton Carter evaluated various U.S. military options, and Dr. Vali Nasr described likely Iranian reactions and other potential impacts. Ambassador Richard Haass considered the challenges of living with a nuclear Iran. Each of these papers represents an important contribution to a much-needed national discussion on U.S. policy toward Iran.
Based on these papers and expert group discussion, as well as additional research and analysis, three CNAS authors (Dr. James Miller, Christine Parthemore, and Dr. Kurt Campbell) proposed that the next administration pursue “game-changing diplomacy” with Iran. This proposal, which represents solely the views of the three CNAS authors, would involve de-emphasizing military threats, offering direct U.S.-Iranian discussions without preconditions on a wide range of issues, and inviting Iran to participate as a more responsible member of the international community. It would accept Iran’s right to enrich uranium despite its past transgressions, while insisting on immediate comprehensive verification, and encouraging Iran to give up its enrichment activities voluntarily. The plan gives high priority to gaining broad international support and building leverage; the United States would engage its friends and allies before engaging Iran, and would appeal to Iran’s people as well as its leadership. Iranian leaders would feel significant pressure both internally and internationally to accept such a reasonable diplomatic initiative. But if they rejected it, the United States and the international community would be much better positioned to put in place economic and political sanctions with real bite, or as a last resort, to build a strong international coalition for the possible use of military force.
While both Iran and the international community would be better off if Iran plays ball, game-changing diplomacy is designed to improve prospects for the United States and the international community irrespective of how Iran responds.
Download Iran: U.S. Strategic Options
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SESSION FOUR: ENERGY SECURITY & CLIMATE CHANGE
Speakers
The Honorable Carol M. Browner
Principal, The Albright Group LLC
Sharon Burke
CNAS Senior Fellow
John Podesta
President and CEO, Center for American Progress
Gen. Charles F. “Chuck” Wald
(Ret.) Vice President, International Programs, L-3 Communication
Jay Gulledge
Senior Scientist, Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Download A Strategy for American Power: Energy, Climate, and National Security
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Summary | In session five of the conference, Dr. Campbell presented on CNAS’s new publication iAsia: the Power of Balance, followed by comments from the distinguished panelists:
Robert D. Kaplan, CNAS Senior Fellow and writer for the Atlantic
Dr. Victor Cha, D.S. Song-Korea Foundation Chair and Associate Professor at Georgetown University, Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council 2004-7
LTG Karl Eikenberry, Deputy Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, formerly the Commander of Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan (CFC-A)
Moderator: David Sanger, Chief Washington Correspondent, the New York Times, CNAS Writer-in Residence
Mr. Campbell, as the presenter, began by laying out the four insights that form the basis of the report.
Bob Kaplan followed, noting in particular that the report was right in calling for a shift of American strategic focus towards Asia, as both economic and military global power are moving east.
Professor Cha elucidated what he sees as the three strategic imperatives for the next administration, imperatives he feels are “consonant” with the CNAS iAsia report.
Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry arrived fresh from Brussels to contribute both his deep expertise on China and his wealth of experience pertaining to America’s role in Asia. As the last panelist, LTG Eikenberry expressed his appreciation for the report and its emphasis on the U.S.’s enduring interests in the region.
David Sanger closed the panel by positing an intriguing question for Asia going forward. We have seen recently that, often at the behest of American leadership, Asian powers can work fairly well on issues of common interest outside of Asia. What remains to be seen is whether the major players “can start to work as well ‘in-area’” in the Asian Century and what role the U.S. will play in this.
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Senator Lindsey Graham gave the afternoon keynote speech at the Center for a New American Security’s Pivot Point event. Senator Graham’s remarks focused on the security challenges the next president will inherit and the opportunity that America will have to lead the world in the years ahead. The presidential election every four years offers America a new chance with the world, an opportunity we must seize. Senator Graham gave a positive assessment of the recent developments in Iraq, arguing that Iran and Al Qaeda have been the two biggest losers of the surge. The next president must follow through on recent success and convince the world that Iraq is not an American problem but the entire world’s problem. To succeed in the future, the next president must fight for the moral high ground and empower moderates around the world. Senator Graham suggested that global leadership must start at home with the recognition that we make mistakes but that America will succeed because it fights for the rule of law. Senator Graham concluded his remarks by noting that although America’s challenges are daunting, America has on its side the greatest force of all, our value system.
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Pivot Point: Introduction
Date: 06/11/2008Media: VideoThe Honorable Dr. William J. Perry, The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright, and The Honorable Richard L. Armitage introduced CNAS annual conference, Pivot Point: New Directions for American Security
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The Honorable Dr. Madeleine K. Albright
Chair, The Albright Stonebridge GroupMadeleine K. Albright is a Principal of The Albright Stonebridge Group and Chair and Principal of Albright Capital Management LLC, an investment advisory firm focused on emerging markets. Dr. Albright was the 64th Secretary of State of the United States. In 1997, she was named the first female Secretary of State and became, at that time, the highest ranking woman in the history of the U.S. government. As Secretary of State, Dr.
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The Honorable Richard L. Armitage
President, Armitage InternationalBeginning March 2005, Richard L. Armitage became President of Armitage International. Previously, his nomination as Deputy Secretary of State was confirmed by the Senate on March 23, 2001. He was sworn in on March 26, 2001.
Prior to returning to government service in 2001, Mr. Armitage was President of Armitage Associates L.C. from May 1993 until March 2001. He had been engaged in a range of worldwide business and public policy endeavors as well as frequent public speaking and writing.
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The Honorable Carol M. Browner
White House Office of Energy and Climate ChangeCarol M. Browner was selected by President Barack Obama to head the newly created White House Office of Energy and Climate Change. She serves as the Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change.
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The Honorable Dr. Richard J. Danzig
Chairman of the Board, Center for a New American Security| Read Full Bio |Richard Danzig is Chairman of the Center for a New American Security, a Trustee of The RAND Corporation, a member of the Defense Policy Board and The President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, a director of Human Genome Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ) and a director of Saffron Hill Ventures (a European venture capital fund).
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LTG Karl Eikenberry
NATO Military CommitteeLieutenant General Karl Eikenberry is the Deputy Chairman of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee in Brussels, Belgium. His previous assignment was Commander of the Combined Forces Command – Afghanistan. His operational posts include service as commander and staff officer with mechanized, light, airborne, and ranger infantry units in the continental United States, Hawaii, Korea, and Italy. He has served in various strategy, policy, and political-military positions, including Director for Strategic Planning and Policy for U.S. Pacific Command; U.S.
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Honorable Lindsey O. Graham
United State SenatorLindsey O. Graham was elected to serve as United States Senator on November 5, 2002. A native South Carolinian, Graham grew up in Central, graduated from D.W. Daniel High School, and earned his undergraduate and law degrees from the University of South Carolina in Columbia. Graham logged six-and-a-half years of service on active duty as an Air Force lawyer. From 1984-1988, he was assigned overseas and served at Rhein Mein Air Force Base in Germany.
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Dr. Michael Green
Senior Advisor and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International StudiesMichael Green is a senior adviser and holds the Japan Chair at CSIS, as well as being an associate professor of international relations at Georgetown University. He served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) from January 2004 to December 2005. He joined the NSC in April 2001 as director of Asian affairs with responsibility for Japan, Korea, and Australia/New Zealand.
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Dr. John G. Ikenberry
Princeton UniversityG. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Professor Ikenberry is the author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars (Princeton, 2001), which won the 2002 Schroeder-Jervis Award presented by the American Political Science Association (APSA) for the best book in international history and politics. The book has been translated into Japanese, Italian and Chinese.
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Robert Kaplan
Senior FellowRobert D. Kaplan has been a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security since March 2008, and has been a foreign correspondent for The Atlantic for over a quarter-century. He is the author of Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, published by Random House in October, 2010, with the paperback to be released in September.
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GEN Jack Keane
United States ArmyGeneral Jack Keane is Senior Managing Director and co-founder of Keane Advisors, LLC, a private equity and consulting firm. He serves as a national security analyst for ABC News and speaks throughout the nation on national security and leadership. Still active in national security, General Keane conducted a personal assessment of the security situation in Iraq for senior defense officials in 2004 and 2005 and will conduct another assessment in 2006. He has been elected to the Board of Directors of Metlife, General Dynamics and Allied Barton Security.
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Development and Diplomacy
CNAS performs groundbreaking work on the U.S. role in current and future conflicts, on the U.S. relationship with key countries like China, India, and Japan, and on the reinvigoration of America’s capacity for effective diplomacy and development.
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Natural Resources + National Security = Natural Security
From oil to critical minerals to water, the global competition for natural resources in the 21st century will generate economic dislocation, tension, instability, and even conflict.
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U.S. Military Forces & Operations
CNAS projects on U.S. Military Forces and Operations go beyond the battlefield and examine the force structure, roles, missions, and overall health and wellness of America's military to help ensure our forces are prepared for the demands of 21st century conflict.
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U.S. National Security and Defense Policy
CNAS has a range of efforts aimed at helping American policymakers develop the best national security strategy for the nation, as well as supporting strategies for critical issues such as energy security and coping with violent extremism.
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WMD and Nuclear Proliferation
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including the dangers of nuclear and biological weapons proliferation, pose perhaps the gravest national security threat to the United States. CNAS continues to examine the threat of WMD posed by state actors – including Iran and North Korea – as well as non-state actors. CNAS also examines U.S. nonproliferation and arms control efforts, as well as other preventative and response plans for potential WMD attacks.
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Asia-Pacific Security
Asia’s strong response to the worldwide economic crisis, its burgeoning military modernization programs and growing integration are evidence of Asia’s expanding global power and American strategists must articulate a comprehensive and forward-looking strategy to deal with the complexities of this increasingly vital region.
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Energy Security and Climate Change
Energy powers the American economy, but it also presents a threat as grave as any foreign army or terrorist group.
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Iran
The debate over how the United States and its allies should deal with Iran will soon enter a new phase. To address this challenge, CNAS continues to evaluate U.S. diplomatic options and economic and financial measures to encourage regime behavior change. This work builds on already published research, Iran: Assessing U.S. Strategic Options and Pressure: Coercive Economic Statecraft and U.S. National Security.
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Iraq
The U.S. military is in the midst of withdrawing from Iraq in accordance with the terms of the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement. But Iraq's future remains dangerously uncertain and a critical concern for U.S. national security. The events of the past two years have raised significant concerns about the Iraqi government's commitment to sustaining democratic governance and ability to secure its population from a drastically weakened but still-deadly militant threat. U.S. policymakers must support the consolidation of democracy and security, but without the traditional military tools that once provided the face of America's involvement in Iraq; instead, security assistance, economic development programs, and diplomacy will need to be utilized more resourcefully to achieve a strategically advantageous long-term outcome. CNAS analysts continue to research political and security issues in Iraq to help shape the debate on what remains an important area for U.S. policy.
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