Center for a New American Security

Navigating U.S. Policy in the South China Sea

Washington, September 5, 2012 — As Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton meets with Chinese leaders in Beijing this week, CNAS experts offer their insights into the disputes in the South China Sea and recommendations for U.S. policy in the region. Click here for CNAS publications on the South China Sea, including two new bulletins on key issues in the region.

Dr. Patrick Cronin, Senior Advisor & Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program
"A variety of virtually irresolvable disputes in the South and East China Seas pose a grave threat to U.S. interests. But allies and partners can be protected and reassured without precipitating a conflict. Judicious statecraft is needed to navigate the high stakes and complex legal and historical issues in question. Over time, clear rules of the sea can be codified to preserve the open commerce and freedom of navigation that benefit all."
Dr. Cronin also recently authored a commentary on the South China Sea in China-US Focus, "Averting Conflict in the South China Sea."

Dr. Ely Ratner, Fellow
"As is often the case with high-level U.S. visits to Beijing, Secretary Clinton will need to deliver multiple and somewhat divergent messages. It will be critical to communicate reassurance about continued U.S. commitment to maintaining positive relations with China. At the same time, however, reassurance must not come off as accommodation, and the Secretary will have to be clear that the United States will continue to support the development of a rules-based order in Asia. Clinton can stress that the short-term goalpost on this front, and in particular prior to the East Asia Summit in November, is the start of negotiations between ASEAN and China on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. The Secretary can underscore that all eyes will be on China in the coming months to enter into substantive and genuine discussions with ASEAN, thereby providing a bellwether of Beijing's overall willingness and intention to contribute to a regional order undergirded by rules and institutions."

Robert D. Kaplan, Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Stratfor Chief Geopolitical Analyst
"Though the United States must prevent China from dominating the South China Sea, it must be careful not to be drawn into a conflict with China at the behest of countries like the Philippines and Vietnam."

Oriana Skylar Mastro, Fellow
"The South China Sea requires heightened attention as claimants maneuver to enhance the validity of their positions by increasing their physical presence, creating evidence of administrative control and increasing territorial grabs. The United States should not only communicate that the use of force by claimants is unacceptable, but also that coercive diplomacy of this sort should not be tolerated. Countries are hard pressed to make the concessions necessary to manage territorial disputes as it is, let alone under duress. In other words, peace is not enough. The United States needs to raise the standard of behavior for all participants to ensure stability."
Read Mastro's recent CNAS publication The Sansha Garrison: China's Deliberate Escalation in the South China Sea.

Will Rogers, Bacevich Fellow
"Access to the South China Sea's potential petroleum resources is increasingly viewed as zero-sum and is a key driver of the region's territorial contest. But conflict over those energy reserves is far from inevitable. States compete for access to natural resources all over the world without escalation to political or military conflict. U.S. policy in the region must help tilt the balance away from competition over these resources by encouraging states to pursue joint development and other cooperative activities that will enable all countries in the region to benefit from the sea's natural resource wealth."

Zachary M. Hosford, Research Associate
"Disputes among claimant countries in the South and East China Seas are not new. However, as China grows in power and assertiveness, the global appetite for energy resources continues unabated, fishing stocks decline, technological advances facilitate disruptions to international commerce and opportunities for diplomatic coercion proliferate, the stakes have never been higher. These disputes - too complex and intertwined to be quickly solved - must be managed, and done so multilaterally. Clashes today are not only more likely to escalate to open conflict, but also risk global effects. As a result, the United States, while amplifying its already robust presence in the Asia-Pacific region, must continue to surge its diplomatic and economic efforts to promote peace and stability in the region."

Publications and Experts in the News:

• CNAS also released today two new publications on the South China Sea: Influence for Sale? China's Trade, Investment and Assistance Policies in Southeast Asia, by Shanthi Kalathil, and The Sansha Garrison: China's Deliberate Escalation in the South China Sea, by Oriana Skylar Mastro.
• These publications are part of the CNAS East and South Chinas Seas Flashpoints portal , a comprehensive map and timeline of major security events in the region. Visit the portal's New Developments page for up-to-date information on new incidents in the region.
• Dr. Cronin also recently authored a commentary on the South China Sea in China-US Focus, "Averting Conflict in the South China Sea ."
• Also read the January 2012 CNAS report on U.S. policy in the South China Sea, Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea, a six-chapter volume featuring a capstone chapter authored by Dr. Patrick Cronin and Robert D. Kaplan.

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The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.