Post-Asad Syria Policy Should Focus on Mitigating Risks to U.S. Interests, Argues CNAS Expert
Washington, September 10, 2012 — The brutal conflict underway in Syria jeopardizes key U.S. strategic interests, but leaves Washington with few attractive options to protect them and little leverage over the future of the country. In Asad Under Fire: Five Scenarios for the Future of Syria, released today by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Visiting Fellow Melissa Dalton argues that the United States must prepare for a range of potential future scenarios and implement policies now to mitigate future risks to its interests in the event of a transition of power from Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.
Click
here to download Asad
Under Fire: Five Scenarios for the Future of Syria.
Click
here to watch a video interview with Dalton as she discusses the tensions that
exist within different U.S. interests in Syria.
In Asad Under Fire , Dalton contends that "thoughtful planning with allies and partners and a commitment to protect U.S. interests over the long term could result in the possibility of a new, if challenging, beginning for Syria." She identifies the five most likely trajectories for Syria, ranging from Asad being killed to Syria disintegrating along sectarian or religious lines, and then outlines several recommendations that policymakers should adopt now to help mitigate risks to U.S. interests, including:
- Engage all emerging leaders in Syria, making it clear that U.S. assistance will be predicated on certain principles, such as the protection of minority rights and Israeli security;
- Acknowledge that even if the current Syria-Iran alliance is severed with Asad's departure, Iran will likely play a role in post-Asad Syria;
- Caution both Israel and Turkey that intervening in Syria carries significant risks, but plan to collectively mitigate those risks in the event that intervention becomes necessary;
- Increase counterterrorism intelligence sharing and security cooperation with Syria's neighbors to track and limit the growth of terrorist cells in Syria;
- Amplify calls to partners and allies to develop a strategy for post-conflict assistance led by the Syrian opposition; and
- Strengthen calls to the Syrian opposition to include transitional justice as a plank in its political platform, along with assurances for inclusivity and fair and representative governance to allay minority concerns. Make lethal assistance to opposition members conditional on their compliance.
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The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.
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