An Agenda for the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
CNAS Authors: Dr. John A. Nagl, Brian Burton
Original Post: An Agenda for the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
Type: CNAS Commentary
May 4, 2009 — Dear Ambassador Hill,
Congratulations on your long-delayed confirmation as U.S. ambassador to Iraq. By now you're probably on the ground in Baghdad, being overwhelmed with briefings from the embassy staff and the military. We trust that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his government have also presented you with their agenda for what Iraq wants from the United States. You are being pulled in many different directions, with everyone vying to attract your attention to their own special needs and issues.
Iraq is sure to test your formidable diplomatic skills. The ad hoc bargains and ceasefires negotiated by your predecessor, Ryan Crocker, and the U.S. military -- deals that kept the country from plunging deeper into the throes of insurgency and civil war -- appear to be on the verge of unraveling. Iraqi security forces are arresting leaders of the "Sons of Iraq" units, further alienating a Sunni population that already regards the Shiite-majority government as an Iranian puppet. Across northern Iraq, Kurdish and Arab factions are jockeying for position in anticipation of conflict over oil-rich territories like Kirkuk. Meanwhile, Prime Minister al-Maliki is increasingly consolidating his control over important state institutions, most notably the security forces, sparking fears among many Iraqi parties of a return to strongman rule.
The United States faces this troublesome situation in Iraq with its influence diminishing along with its military presence. President Obama has announced a withdrawal date for American troops and clearly signaled that his administration does not intend to commit more resources to Iraq. The American foreign policy community is focused squarely on the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The American people have largely tuned out the Iraq war and assume that it is all over.
These are not the most auspicious circumstances for an ambassador to serve under. You will have to deal with many conflicting demands and daily disasters. But to effectively advance U.S. interests, you must avoid getting caught up in the details of day-to-day crisis management and instead take a long-term strategic view of what kind of relationship the United States wants to have with Iraq 10 years from now.
The United States desires a stable, democratic Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbors. Iraq can also play an important leadership role in regional politics, economics, and security. While helping the Iraqis work to resolve the fundamental conflicts within their country, you should prioritize the following three steps to set the groundwork for a stronger Iraq that can be a partner for peace and stability in the region:
- Engage with Iraqi institutions rather than just Iraqi leaders. Supporting the Iraqi government does not mean giving al-Maliki a blank check. To shore up Iraq's fragile democracy, you should ensure that American delegations cultivate civic professionalism in the Iraqi government bureaucracy and establish ties between peaceful opposition parties and local citizens' groups. Developing Iraqi civil society will help prevent a lapse back into dictatorship. While the temptation to consign Iraq to authoritarianism is strong, its long-term value as a strategic partner will be greatly enhanced by the success of its democracy.
- Promote sustainable economic development policies that will diversify the country's sources of wealth beyond oil. The decline in oil prices as a result of the global economic downturn has greatly reduced the Iraqi government's revenue, significantly impacting its ability to provide essential services. Additionally, the reliance on oil as the sole source of revenue incentivizes conflict between Iraq's communities to control that resource. Building up alternative sources of wealth in the agricultural and commerce sectors will take time, but is essential to the country's long-term stability and prosperity.
- Foster deeper Iraqi political and economic ties to Turkey and the Arab states, to help balance the powerful influence of Iran. While Iraq and Iran are going to continue to have strong links to each other, you can help mitigate undue Iranian meddling in Iraqi affairs by encouraging bilateral and multilateral cooperation between Iraq and its other neighbors on issues like border security, trade, and educational exchanges. Such cooperation will reduce Iraqi reliance on Iran as a primary benefactor, while giving Iraq a greater stake in peace and stability in the Middle East.
Ambassador, the task before you is monumental. But you have a historic opportunity to translate America's hard-won tactical successes in 2007-08 into a strategic victory in 2009 and beyond. You will need to demonstrate that Iraq is not just a place that, having fought for, Americans will now forget, but rather an important state that can become a valuable ally of the United States.
Related:Topic(s): Iraq
Project(s): Iraq
People: Dr. John A. Nagl
