Osama bin Laden Gone, Afghanistan War Rolls On

Osama bin Laden may be dead, but the war in Afghanistan goes on toward a critical point this summer in which President Barack Obama’s strategy will be tested.

Defense officials say the surge in U.S. troops over the past year has helped reverse the Taliban’s momentum and put the Islamist militants on the defensive for the first time in several years.

But public support for a war that has taken nearly 10 years and cost $400 billion so far was waning when bin Laden’s death was announced the president late Sunday – and the pressure for a robust withdrawal of U.S. forces in July is likely to get stronger.

Military officials have been warning for weeks that the summer will be a tough one, in spite of recent successes. But now their margin for error is razor-thin.

“This progress is fragile. This progress is reversible. There’s still a lot to do,” a senior defense official said last week. “There’s going to be some very tough days ahead, just as there have been tough days in the past.”

It’s unclear whether killing bin Laden will lead to retaliatory attacks against U.S. troops and their Afghan allies. But a military spokesman said coalition forces already were on a heightened alert because of the expected Taliban offensive and would take additional steps as necessary.

The strategy announced by Obama in 2009 was designed to allow U.S. troops to begin to withdraw this year, with an eye toward a complete pullout of all foreign forces in 2014.

It’s widely expected that Obama will announce the withdrawal of some or all of the 30,000 surge troops in July. And the death of bin Laden is likely to increase the pressure he’s already feeling from his base among left-wing Democrats to accelerate a pullback.

“Everyone in the military, civilian and uniform believes there should be reductions in July,” said Sen. Carl Levin ( D-Mich.) chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “I think the president’s inclination will be a robust reduction and that will be reinforced by the events of yesterday.”

But Obama’s goals won’t be met “by putting a bullet through bin Laden’s brain,” said Robert Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute.

Recent polling shows Americans are evenly divided over whether things are going well or badly in Afghanistan, a modest improvement over attitudes from 2007 to 2009 when the situation was deteriorating there. But a growing number say continued U.S. involvement in the conflict is no longer worth it, with 50 percent in a March 30 to April 3 Pew Research Center poll saying U.S. troops should be withdrawn as soon as possible.

Reports from the battlefield have helped shape those opinions, with coalition forces marking successes in capturing Taliban and other insurgent leaders and bomb makers, cutting their supply lines and bringing Afghan government institutions to areas long under Taliban control, such as southern Kandahar and Helmand provinces.

But there have also been setbacks, including the breakout last week from the Kandahar prison of nearly 500 Taliban captives and Wednesday’s shooting by an Afghan officer in Kabul of eight U.S. Air Force advisers and a U.S. civilian contractor. Then there’s the expected departure this summer of the U.S. commander in Afghanistan – and architect of the current war strategy – Gen. David Petraeus, as well as U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry.

Analysts say the withdrawal of too many troops could add to those headaches.

“The last thing you want to do is give these guys an opportunity to get back into the game,” said James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation. “If we have a bad year … you’re going to be right back where you started. You have to be really careful about walking away too quickly.”

A key element of Obama’s strategy is the training of Afghan security forces sufficient to take over in 2014, and the bolstering of Afghan government institutions. A Pentagon report released Friday notes progress in both areas, but says there are still no Afghan army or police units capable of fully independent operation, and only about half of the country’s population lives in areas with either “emerging” or full government authority.

“Generally speaking, the Afghan state is fairly weak” but the North, West and Kabul are in reasonably good shape and the south is improving. But the part that remains “can cause us a lot of headaches,” said Brookings scholar Michael O’Hanlon. “I think there’ll still be some lawless areas in 2014.”

Defense Secretary Robert Gates called Afghan President Hamid Karzai early Monday to tell him bin Laden was dead, and Karzai later held a news conference at which he called on the Taliban to “learn from this day’s incident and stop fighting.”

But as U.S. officials had predicted, the Taliban announced its spring offensive on Saturday “against the invading Americans and their foreign allies and internal supports.”

Even as they have worked to prep public opinion for a tough summer, senior Pentagon officials have pushed back hard against the significance of recent spectacular suicide attacks by Taliban infiltrators. But they still must contend with the possibility that new high-profile attacks will tip the balance strongly toward withdrawal after bin Laden’s death.

“Since the rationale for the war in Afghanistan has always been justified as a necessary response to the Sept. 11 attacks, many Americans will now believe that purpose has been achieved and it is time for U.S. forces to come home,” said Nora Bensahel of the Center for a New American Security.

“Obama will face an uphill battle convincing Americans – and some members of Congress – that U.S. strategic interests still require spending billions of dollars a month on military operations in Afghanistan.”

But there have also been setbacks, including the breakout last week from the Kandahar prison of nearly 500 Taliban captives and Wednesday’s shooting by an Afghan officer in Kabul of eight U.S. Air Force advisers and a U.S. civilian contractor. Then there’s the expected departure this summer of the U.S. commander in Afghanistan – and architect of the current war strategy – Gen. David Petraeus, as well as U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry. 

Analysts say the withdrawal of too many troops could add to those headaches. 

“The last thing you want to do is give these guys an opportunity to get back into the game,” said James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation. “If we have a bad year … you’re going to be right back where you started. You have to be really careful about walking away too quickly.” 

A key element of Obama’s strategy is the training of Afghan security forces sufficient to take over in 2014, and the bolstering of Afghan government institutions. A Pentagon report released Friday notes progress in both areas, but says there are still no Afghan army or police units capable of fully independent operation, and only about half of the country’s population lives in areas with either “emerging” or full government authority. 

“Generally speaking, the Afghan state is fairly weak” but the North, West and Kabul are in reasonably good shape and the south is improving. But the part that remains “can cause us a lot of headaches,” said Brookings scholar Michael O’Hanlon. “I think there’ll still be some lawless areas in 2014.” 

Defense Secretary Robert Gates called Afghan President Hamid Karzai early Monday to tell him bin Laden was dead, and Karzai later held a news conference at which he called on the Taliban to “learn from this day’s incident and stop fighting.” 

But as U.S. officials had predicted, the Taliban announced its spring offensive on Saturday “against the invading Americans and their foreign allies and internal supports.” 

Even as they have worked to prep public opinion for a tough summer, senior Pentagon officials have pushed back hard against the significance of recent spectacular suicide attacks by Taliban infiltrators. But they still must contend with the possibility that new high-profile attacks will tip the balance strongly toward withdrawal after bin Laden’s death. 

“Since the rationale for the war in Afghanistan has always been justified as a necessary response to the Sept. 11 attacks, many Americans will now believe that purpose has been achieved and it is time for U.S. forces to come home,” said Nora Bensahel of the Center for a New American Security. 

“Obama will face an uphill battle convincing Americans – and some members of Congress – that U.S. strategic interests still require spending billions of dollars a month on military operations in Afghanistan.”