July 21, 2022

Putin's "annexation playbook" in Ukraine could leave no path to peace

Featuring Michael Kofman

Source: Axios

Journalist Dave Lawler

What to watch: Ukraine has a clear incentive to make its move before September to try to disrupt any Russian annexation plans.

  • Russia, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to secure the boundaries of Kherson and the other oblasts it controls without pushing beyond them, Kofman says, potentially setting the stage for annexation.
  • "They would be taking a huge risk trying to annex Kherson because they might lose a large part of it," he says. Kofman thinks the Kremlin may wait until the military outlook in Kherson is clearer before announcing its next moves.

Read the full story and more from Axios.

Authors

  • Michael Kofman

    Adjunct Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program

    Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses' Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Internation...