Ultimately, a war between China and the United States would largely arise from political decisions that Chinese Communist Party leaders make, especially China’s President Xi Jinping, said retired Navy Capt. Thomas Shugart, a military innovation expert with the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington, D.C.
Shugart has long argued that the mid-to-late 2020s will be a dangerous time for the United States, during which its efforts to deter China from using military force against Taiwan may no longer be effective.
During that time frame, the U.S. military is expected to retire Cold War weapons systems en masse, including F-15 and F-16 fighters, Los Angeles-class attack submarines, and Guided Missile Submarines, Shugart told Task & Purpose.
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