November 26, 2018

Whether it's a hollow truce or a handshake agreement, the G-20 will likely hurt the yuan

Featuring Rachel Ziemba

Source: CNBC

Journalist Sri Jegarajah

China's currency will likely continue its slide against the U.S. dollar— possibly falling below the key 7.00 yuan per dollar level — if Washington and Beijing fail to step back decisively from an all-out trade conflict at this week's G-20 summit in Argentina.

Most global macro and currency strategists contacted by CNBC are not optimistic of a breakthrough at the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Nov. 30 and Dec 1.

"This is about much, much more than just a trade surplus," said Jonathan Pain, author and publisher of the weekly Pain Report. "We are at the early stages of a long drawn out economic war between America and China."

Michael Every, head of financial markets research Asia-Pacific at Rabobank, characterized the likely upshot of G-20 as "can-kicking at best." The Chinese president "can't deliver on anything the U.S. wants and needs. Hence no deal," he said.

Read the full article and more on CNBC.

  • Rachel Ziemba

    Adjunct Senior Fellow, Energy, Economics, & Security Program

    Rachel Ziemba is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Her research focuses on the interlinkages between economics, finance and security i...