Red Alert

Short-range threats include systems capable of operating within China’s 200-nautical-mile (nm) exclusive economic zone (EEZ), or the area in which a given country enjoys sovereign rights over natural resources. These systems – such as surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), and tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – are additionally capable of reaching Taiwan.

Medium-range threats include systems capable of operating at ranges of up to 600 nm, such as ASCMs delivered by submarines, land-based fighter aircraft and bombers, and larger surface vessels. In the event of a conflict, these systems could be used throughout the East and South China Seas and could reach the first island chain that extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south.

Long-range threats include systems capable of operating beyond 600 nm, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) and submarine- and bomber-delivered ASCMs. These systems could extend as far as the U.S. territory of Guam and additionally cover the entirety of the Bay of Bengal and most, if not all, of the Arabian Sea. Select land-based fighter aircraft may also threaten the carrier – without aerial refueling – at distances greater than 600 nm.

Growing international interest in A2/AD capabilities occurs at a time when the U.S. Navy is particularly ill-equipped to operate at distance. Since the end of the Cold War, the service has steadily retreated from its prior emphasis on long-range carrier-based assets and the deep strike mission, instead focusing on short-range assets intended to improve sortie generation rates.⁵ During this time, the average unrefueled combat radius of the carrier air wing plummeted over 300 nm – from 800 nm in 1996 to only 500 nm in 2006 – bringing it well within the range of a number of states’ A2/AD capabilities.⁶ This was largely the result of the decision to replace the A-6 attack aircraft, which featured a combat radius of 1,000 nm, with the comparatively low-cost but short-legged F/A-18 fighter jet. Limitations on the CVW’s range were further exacerbated by the retirement of the KA-6 tanker and the resultant decline in the carrier’s organic tanking capabilities.⁷ The convergence of these factors could present new challenges for the U.S. carrier and its air wing and foreshadow the end of unrivaled U.S. domination of the world’s oceans.

Short-Range Threats

Throughout its history, the carrier has been forced to assume risk at short ranges, operating within the threat envelope of surface combatants, SAMs, and land-based aircraft. However, advancements in precision and lethality have amplified this risk at all ranges and will continue to do so in the years to come. China, in particular, is acquiring a robust portfolio of A2/AD capabilities that could be used to constrain adversary operations within its EEZ. These capabilities could additionally be brought to bear in a conflict with Taiwan, which lies less than 100 nm from mainland China.

At this short range, China operates approximately 40 Russian-built S-300 SAM batteries in addition to 60 indigenous HQ-9 models, which together form what the U.S. Department of Defense has termed “one of the largest forces of advanced long-range SAM systems in the world.”⁸ Deployed on mobile launchers, these systems are highly survivable in combat. Existing batteries are capable of striking incoming cruise missiles and nonstealthy aircraft at a range of 80 nm⁹ and may also have limited abilities to strike ballistic missiles.¹⁰ Furthermore, when China receives delivery of the upgraded S-400 system, its ability to strike incoming targets will extend to 215 nm – a range large enough to cover the entirety of its EEZ.¹¹

Throughout its EEZ, China additionally operates a wide range of surface combatants – including destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and fast-attack craft – equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles. Over 100 of these vessels are capable of carrying the YJ-83, an ASCM that employs inertial and active radar guidance and that can receive in-flight target updates.¹² Difficult to defend against due to its speed (Mach .9) and flight altitude (20 to 30 meters), the YJ-83 delivers a 165 kg semi-armor-piercing warhead – large enough to disable destroyers and frigates – at ranges of approximately 65 nm.¹³ China is also capable of delivering this missile from a range of land-based fighter aircraft and bombers and, in the event of a conflict, would be likely to attempt a saturation attack that would overwhelm U.S. defenses.¹⁴

China’s four Russian-built Sovremenny guided missile destroyers also operate an advanced anti-ship cruise missile – the SS-N-22 Sunburn, alternatively known as the 3M80ME Moskit – with each ship capable of launching eight missiles. Like the YJ-83, the Sunburn employs inertial and active radar guidance. It is designed to evade the United States’ advanced SM-2 missile interceptors as well as the defenses of the Aegis Combat System, reaching speeds of Mach 2.5 and conducting 15G maneuvers.¹⁵ It is additionally capable of striking targets with a 300 kg semi-armor-piercing warhead at a range of 65 to 130 nm (depending on variant).¹⁶

Similarly, China deploys the SS-N-27 Sizzler, or 3M-54 Klub, ASCM aboard eight of the country’s 12 Kilo-class diesel submarines.¹⁷ This system operates in variable flight mode, shifting from subsonic flight in phases one and two to supersonic flight (Mach 2.2) in the terminal phase, which begins 10 to 35 nm from the target. During the terminal phase, the Sizzler additionally operates in sea skimming mode at an altitude of five to 10 meters, following a “zig-zag flight path.”¹⁸ This approach both prevents the defender from detecting the missile until it breaks the defender’s radar horizon and complicates fire control calculations. At such altitudes, detection occurs at a distance of less than 18 nm, leaving the defender less than one minute to respond.¹⁹ While the Sizzler has an overall range of 120 nm, the B variant eliminates the terminal phase sprint vehicle to achieve an extended range of over 160 nm. Both variants are thus capable of operating throughout China’s EEZ.

Finally, China could deploy its fleet of over 100 Israeli-built Harpy UAVs in the event of a conflict within its EEZ. These systems, which have a range of approximately 215 nm, essentially function as loitering anti-radiation missiles equipped with a 32 kg explosive warhead.²⁰ While a single munition of this size could disable a ship’s radar, it would be highly unlikely to achieve a mission kill. It is possible that China could, however, swarm its Harpys in a saturation attack against the carrier. An attack of this nature could overwhelm U.S. defenses and ultimately result in the neutralization or loss of the carrier.

Medium-Range Threats

In addition to its short-range A2/AD capabilities, China operates a number of systems that could be used at medium ranges, throughout the East and South China Seas and the first island chain extending from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south. At this distance, ASCMs – including those delivered by submarines, land-based fighter aircraft, bombers, and large surface vessels – will continue to pose a threat to the carrier due to the range of their associated platforms. For example, one major delivery platform for the 65 nm-range YJ-83, the J-10A/S fighter jet, has a combat radius in excess of 540 nm, bringing the platform’s effective reach to around 600 nm.²¹ In the event of a conflict, these capabilities could limit U.S. freedom of operation in contested areas and push U.S. aircraft carriers to – or even beyond – the maximum unrefueled range of their tactical aircraft. Indeed, the most recent estimate of the F-35C’s combat radius is 610 nm,²² while the combat radius for the U.S. Navy’s existing fleet of F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets is less than 500 nm.²³ These limitations would likely pull the carrier well inside the threat envelope.

While China’s ability to track and target the carrier degrades as a function of distance and could be limited at such ranges, it appears to be developing high-altitude, long-endurance UAVs that could assist in over-the-horizon targeting for ASCMs and ASBMs. In particular, the design characteristics of the Soar Dragon suggest that it may be capable of carrying a sensor suite that could be used in support of an emerging reconnaissance-strike complex.²⁴

Long-Range Threats

Beyond the 600 nm range, the number of China’s A2/AD systems begins to taper. Many of its land-based fighter aircraft could continue to deliver ASCMs at this range only with the assistance of aerial refueling, a task that could expose the fleet to a high level of threat from U.S. carrier-based aircraft. China’s approximately 250 land-based Su-27 Flankers and J-11s (the Su-27’s indigenously produced counterpart) and over 100 land-based Su-30MKK/2 Flankers are notable exceptions to this limitation, featuring combat radii of over 750 nm.²⁷ China is also developing two stealthy, fifth-generation fighters, the J-20 and J-31, each of which is expected to have a combat radius of over 1,000 nm.²⁸ If paired with long-range ASCMs, these aircraft could be capable of targeting the carrier at distances of over 1,200 nm²⁹ – a range that could be extended to over 1,600 nm if China were to assume the risk of aerial refueling. As China becomes increasingly proficient in conducting its own carrier operations, it may also deploy YJ-83s and other ASCMs from carrier-based aircraft.³⁰

In addition to ASCMs, China could use ASBMs to strike aircraft carriers at distances greater than 600 nm.³¹ China currently deploys the solid-fuel DF-21D ASBM on highly survivable land-based mobile launchers capable of operating in off-road conditions.³² Further complicating defensive measures, the DF-21D – which travels at speeds of Mach 10 – features a maneuverable warhead guided by inertial and GPS navigation and may additionally incorporate cluster fléchettes designed to neutralize carrier flight decks and radar and communications equipment.³³ While open-source details of the system’s operating parameters vary, the DF-21D reportedly has a circular error probable³⁴ of 20 meters and is capable of striking “slow-moving targets” at a range of around 810 nm.³⁵

China appears intent upon increasing its ASBM capabilities further and, at a recent military parade commemorating the end of World War II, revealed that it may have an ASBM variant of a substantially longer-range missile – the DF-26. As with the DF-21D, estimates of the capabilities of the DF-26 vary widely; however, it is thought to have a range of 1,620 to 2,160 nm and to have both conventional and nuclear warheads.³⁶ If accurate and operational, this system would give China the ability to strike targets within the second island chain – including those in and around the U.S. territory of Guam – as well as those throughout the entirety of the Bay of Bengal.³⁷ In the event of a wider conflict, these systems could also reach targets throughout much, if not all, of the Arabian Sea.

While both the DF-21D and the DF-26 represent a significant threat to the carrier, China’s ability to successfully track and target adversary assets at such distances is unclear and there is no evidence that China has tested its ASBMs in a realistic operating environment.³⁸ Nonetheless, China is actively growing its reconnaissance-strike complex, integrating UAVs – such as the Soar Dragon – into an existing suite of over-the-horizon radars and overhead satellites, and additionally improving its ability to coordinate and cue intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets capable of providing more precise targeting data.³⁹

Finally, Chinese submarines and bombers will continue to pose a threat to the carrier throughout much of the Western Pacific.⁴⁰ In the event of an attack, China would likely launch a large number of A2/AD systems – including ASBMs and submarine- and bomber-delivered ASCMs – along a variety of azimuths. Doing so would increase the difficulty of defense and almost certainly result in significant damage to U.S. carriers within range, even assuming a high degree of Chinese attrition.⁴¹

U.S. Countermeasures

In the event of a near-term conflict, there are a number of countermeasures – including jamming; spoofing; dazzling; kinetic strike;⁴² passive avoidance;⁴³ and, potentially, hacking – that the United States could undertake in order to attempt to mitigate the missile threat.⁴⁴ An assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is unavailable in the open source; however, it is highly unlikely that they could wholly neutralize a saturation attack against U.S. forces. Furthermore, as China continues to develop and mature its reconnaissance-strike complex, the threat to the carrier will grow increasingly resilient.⁴⁵

Over the long term, the United States may have access to additional countermeasures such as railguns, which could fire projectiles at speeds as high as Mach 7 and ranges of 50 to 100 nm.⁴⁶ The Navy is evaluating early-stage prototypes of these systems, but if they become operational at some point – a prospect far from guaranteed – they will significantly increase the depth of ships’ magazines while simultaneously decreasing the cost⁴⁷ of defending against missile salvos. These factors would greatly strengthen the defense of U.S. surface assets.

Conclusion

No longer will aircraft carriers and their associated air wings be able to operate with impunity. Instead, they will face a dense and growing threat across their full range of operations as A2/AD systems continue to proliferate. Operating the carrier in the face of increasingly lethal and precise munitions will thus require the United States to expose a multibillion-dollar asset⁴⁸ to high levels of risk in the event of a conflict.⁴⁹ Indeed, under such circumstances, an adversary with A2/AD capabilities would likely launch a saturation attack against the carrier from a variety of platforms and directions. Such an attack would be difficult – if not impossible – to defend against.

There are a number of options for addressing this problem. First, the United States could significantly increase the range of the carrier air wing, such that the carrier could operate beyond the 1,000 to 1,500 nm distance at which the threat landscape is most intense.⁵⁰ This could be accomplished if requirements for the Navy’s unmanned carrier-based system include a significant strike capability.⁵¹ Given the range of emerging ASBMs, however, this would not wholly remove the risk to the carrier and would dramatically reduce sortie rates.

Second, the United States could shift its emphasis from supercarriers such as the Ford-class to undersea assets such as submarines and unmanned undersea vehicles that are capable of operating within a dense A2/AD threat environment. While a shift of this nature would result in a reduction in combat airpower, it would preserve some degree of strike capability and likely increase the survivability of the fleet as a whole.

As an alternative, the United States could adopt a combination of these options, both increasing the range of the aircraft operating from existing carriers and shifting future investments from Ford-class supercarriers to undersea assets. At this time, the optimal choice among these three options is unclear and will require further study to assess tradeoffs in strike capacity, survivability, and affordability.

Even in the face of major changes to U.S. force structure, however, the risk posed by submarine-delivered ASCMs to U.S. surface assets will remain. For this reason, it will be essential to invest in long-range anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Similarly, the continued ASBM threat will require sustained investments in emerging technologies, such as railguns, that hold the potential to shift the offense-defense balance in favor of the U.S. military.

As the United States considers the nature of the evolving threat landscape and confronts the global proliferation of A2/AD capabilities, it must re-examine the relevance of the carrier and its air wing and explore innovative options for future operations and force structure. If the United States is to maintain its military superiority well into the future, it cannot afford to do otherwise.