June 24, 2025

Beware the Europe You Wish For

By: Celeste Wallander

For decades, the United States had asked its NATO allies in Europe to do more for their own defense. And by the alliance’s 2024 summit in Washington, they had gotten the message. Twenty-three of NATO’s 32 members were spending two percent of their GDP on defense, the alliance target—up from six members in 2021.

In explaining this increase, many commentators cited a single factor: Donald Trump. It is true that the U.S. president’s rhetoric, broadly critical of European defense spending during his first presidential term and now his second, has played a role in the uptick. But the increase was underway before Trump entered politics. For over a decade, NATO allies have been focused on the elevated threat that Russia poses to European security, with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s naked aggression against Ukraine as a harbinger. They have also warily watched as Washington paid less attention to their region and more to Asia. Together, these factors prompted the steady increase in defense spending, procurement, and production that helped Europe build more capable militaries before Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025—and that will continue after he leaves office. Trump’s reelection has only helped underscore the continent’s burgeoning independence: Europeans now see a fundamentally changed United States, and they are no longer confident that investing in U.S. leadership will secure their interests.

But that doesn’t mean the United States and Europe are headed for divorce.

The fact that Europe is spending more on its own defense is in many ways good news for Americans. Thanks to the continent’s increased strength, Washington can now focus on China first and Russia second. There is a reason why generations of U.S. presidents from both parties have pushed for Europe to spend more on defense.

But before American officials pat themselves on the back or take a victory lap, they must understand the downsides of their success. Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over. Now that it provides more for itself, Europe will feel less pressure to defer to Washington’s interests. It is less likely to buy American-made weapons. It might deny the United States the right to use American military bases in Europe for operations in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. And the continent is already holding up Washington’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine, restraining American officials in ways it previously wouldn’t.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

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