June 12, 2025

Preventing the Next Middle East Disaster

By: Adham Sahloul

The stars and stripes now fly over the reopened United States ambassador’s residence in Damascus, Syria. Lebanon’s new, technocratic president and prime minister have a historic opportunity, in curbing a weakened and decapitated Hezbollah, to restore the state’s monopoly on weapons for the first time since the end of the civil war nearly 35 years ago. Yemen’s Houthis have cut a deal with the US to cease their attacks on American ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Iran-backed network of proxy groups, which have for decades given Iran plausible deniability for its sectarian, destabilising agenda, has been decimated.

At the same time, President Trump spoke in Riyadh about the end of Western interference in the Middle East, and White House officials have waxed lyrical about the end of the post-Sykes-Picot era Western interference. Against this backdrop, the region breathes a painful sigh of relief following over 15 months of regional war, of which Gaza has borne the brunt of suffering. But this relative calm could quickly dissipate if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to incite against neighbouring countries and the interests of his most important ally, the US.

At play for Washington in the Middle East is the opportunity to keep Russia out of the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran’s proxy network at bay, and scale back China's ambitions in the Arab heartland.

The US has never wavered in its unconditional support for Israel since Hamas launched its devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, despite Israel’s devastating and ongoing war on Gaza that has enflamed regional tensions. During this time, Netanyahu has strived to box in US foreign policy options in the region.

However, to President Trump’s credit, the second Trump Administration has not been afraid to assert America's role as the senior partner in the US-Israel relationship, as opposed to former President Joe Biden, whom Netanyahu had effectively out-muscled. Biden’s stated policy after October 7 was to aid Israel’s military objectives, stave off a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and prevent the conflict from expanding across the region. But the Biden-Netanyahu “bear hug” was a failure, and it would be an understatement to say that the October 7 conflict damaged US credibility globally.

Read the full article on Al Majalla.

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