August 06, 2025
How Big Will China’s Nuclear Arsenal Get?
This article was originally published in Defense One.
Since 2020, China is believed to have tripled its nuclear arsenal to 600 warheads—enough to begin to shift the strategic balance, if still well short of the thousands held by the United States and Russia.
“China’s trying to catch up because, you know, they’re, they’re very substantially behind, but within five or six years they’ll be even,” President Trump said in February.
China’s nuclear expansion is already feeding an arms race—a contest that is accelerating partly because the finish line remains unknown.
But will they? Perhaps the biggest unknown of this new nuclear age is how many weapons Beijing will ultimately hold. Its buildup has a few logical endpoints, and by examining each possibility, observers can better understand what China is seeking.
The best place to start to game out where China’s nuclear program is going is to look back at where it has been. Beijing first tested a nuclear weapon in October 1964 and from then until the late 2010s practiced a strategy of minimal nuclear deterrence. That meant maintaining only a couple hundred nuclear weapons, eschewing nuclear arms racing with Washington and Moscow, and instead investing in growing the Chinese economy and the conventional forces of its military, the People’s Liberation Army. Fast forward to the current decade, and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has shed his country’s historical approach and expanded the country’s nuclear arsenal at a speedy clip.
Read the full article on Defense One.
More from CNAS
-
The U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Southeast Asia
Commentary
Without routine engagement, Southeast Asian countries become uneasy about U.S. commitments and tend to look elsewhere—such as to China—to fulfill their needs....
By Derek Grossman
-
Podcast
Indo-Pacific Security / Middle East Security
The Global Power Shift No One Is Talking About – And Who’s Driving ItMost people see the world as the U.S. vs. China. But the real power shift is happening elsewhere. Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and a former ...
By Richard Fontaine
-
China May Grab a Lead in the Race for Military Fusion
Commentary
This article was originally published in The Wall Street Journal. America’s top diplomat for nuclear-weapons issues, Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno, revealed this mont...
By David Feith
-
Commentary
Indo-Pacific Security / Energy, Economics & Security
How to Win the Economic War with ChinaTrump's approach to China has run aground, giving Beijing unprecedented advantage in the economic conflict....
By Edward Fishman & Julian Gewirtz
