June 23, 2026

Losing the War of the Future

By: Paul Scharre

This article was originally published in Foreign Affairs.

In its recent campaign against Iran, the United States dominated the skies using its traditional airpower. The U.S. military pounded Iranian targets, conducting over 13,000 strikes. That prowess and devastating firepower did not stop Iran from hitting back. Over the course of the 39-day conflict that began on February 28 and stopped on April 8, Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones against countries in the region. At least eight U.S. aircraft were destroyed or damaged by Iranian attacks. Multiple U.S. radars were hit, and seven U.S. service members were killed. And at the time of this writing, the Iranian regime remains in place and maintains a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has not achieved its objectives in the war, even though it is by every metric far more powerful than Iran.

The United States can remain the world’s leading military if it acts now to adapt to the changing contours of modern warfare. But if the Pentagon fails to push its operations in the necessary directions, it will be eclipsed by competitors that are more dogged and intrepid in adjusting to the realities of a new age.

The technological dominance that the U.S. military has long counted on to give it an advantage over competitors is waning. Unlike in past eras, when the United States maintained major leads in stealth and precision-guided weapons, the current age will not afford the United States an advantage in the technologies that are now transforming warfare: drones and artificial intelligence.

Read the full article in Foreign Affairs.

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