Russia’s Tight Embrace of Belarus Raises Prospect of Nuclear Deployment

Belarusians voting in today’s referendum are poised to abandon the country’s nonnuclear status, an outcome that could lead to Moscow deploying such weapons in Belarus just as Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the alert level for his country’s nuclear forces.

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s longtime leader, is expected to tighten his grip on power in the far-reaching constitutional referendum that is all but certain to pass in the country’s tightly controlled political system, with polls closing late Sunday. The vote, beyond upending Belarus’s position on nuclear weapons, could allow Mr. Lukashenko to extend his term as president.

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Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at CNA, a not-for-profit research organization, said it would represent a further signal Belarus is becoming more firmly ensconced in Russia’s security orbit. A deployment of Russian nuclear forces to Belarus wouldn’t meaningfully affect the West’s security calculus, he added.

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