The Next 2 Weeks Could Determine the Fate of Ukraine

After the initial shock of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the biggest surprise of the war may be how badly the Russian army has performed.

What at first seemed like a certain rout by one of the world’s largest armies has turned into something between a slog and an embarrassment for Moscow.

What did experts get wrong — and what does it mean for the next phase of the war? Michael Kofman, one of the most prominent U.S. authorities on the Russian military, told POLITICO in a lengthy interview that he and other experts “generally overestimated the Russian military, which is good. It’s very good.” And, he adds, “we really underestimated the Ukrainian military.”

Over the past several weeks, Kofman has become a go-to source of fast-breaking analysis and a Twitter phenomenon — a former expert at the National Defense University, and currently the research program director in the Russia Studies Program for the Virginia-based think tank CNA, with an unusually granular understanding of Russian equipment and tactics.

Read the full interview from POLITICO.