As the crisis over Ukraine threatens to explode into a full-blown Russian invasion of the country, Taiwan is closely watching from thousands of kilometers away to see how the U.S. responds and what, if any, lessons can be gleaned from the events so far.
But just what those lessons are is something that is being hotly debated.
“Xi will surely be watching U.S. policy toward Ukraine closely, and he might draw some tentative conclusions,” said Jacob Stokes, a fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.
“But I hope Xi is also smart enough to know that the U.S. partnership with Taiwan has its own unique dynamics, and that it would be foolish to conclude that Washington’s response to the Ukraine crisis dictates how the United States would respond to a Taiwan crisis,” said Stokes, who previously served on Biden’s national security staff during his time as vice president. “There are more differences than similarities.”
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