Washington, September 13, 2022—Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Competitive Connectivity: Crafting Transatlantic Responses to China's Belt and Road Initiative from authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Jacob Stokes, Carisa Nietsche, Joshua Fitt, and Nicholas Lokker.
The authors assert that although the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has failed to achieve Beijing’s initial objectives, it could evolve in ways that present risks to the United States and European Union (EU). And while the U.S. and the EU on their own would not be able to match the scale of China’s global infrastructure investments, together they can a provide an alternative source of financing and manage these risks.
"To avoid overstretching resources, the EU should prioritize investing in infrastructure in its immediate neighborhood, such as the western Balkan states, where China has attempted to gain influence in recent years," write the authors. "For the United States, the priority should be on the Indo-Pacific countries that are central to strategic competition with China. While these areas should be prioritized, the United States and Europe should also continue cooperating on investment and infrastructure efforts throughout the Global South, especially in Africa."
Given the uncertain future of BRI, the authors identified the major drivers likely to influence the direction of the program and examined their numerous permutations. The authors selected three scenarios and focused on how conditions of each scenario would play out in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
For each scenario, the report identifies the risks and implications for the U.S. and its allies. The scenarios are designed to prepare policymakers and planners for the possible futures they could face, including key challenges and opportunities that may arise in the years to come.
For more information or to schedule an interview with the report author, please contact Cameron Edinburgh at firstname.lastname@example.org