Global Swing States

Today, global politics are more contested, more confrontational, and more uncertain than in the past. China seeks domination in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, while Russia remains aggressively revisionist in Europe. Both are working with Iran and North Korea in an “axis of upheaval” to resist a Western-dominated world. Competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand, and a revisionist axis of upheaval on the other, will largely become a contest over the shape of the international order.

Policymakers should focus on six global swing states—Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye—that together will exert disproportionate influence over the future of this order. Each of the six is multi-aligned, maintaining simultaneous ties with the United States, Russia, and China. None wishes to be forced into a strategic alignment with one great power alone, and all seek meaningful changes in international rules and institutions. Each of the global swing states plays a dominant role in its region and takes actions with worldwide repercussions. They possess sufficient collective geopolitical weight for their policy preferences to sway the future direction of the international order.

This area of research offers a path for engaging with global swing states toward a vision of world order favorable to U.S. interests. International competition today is far more acute than 13 years ago, the shape of international order much more contested, the U.S. role more uncertain, the stakes even higher, and, as a result, the potential role of global swing states in the outcome even greater.

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