New CNAS Report Reveals Key Factors Shaping Global Response to Taiwan Crisis, Offers Strategic Recommendations for the United States

Washington, May 21, 2025 – Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire, by Jacob Stokes, Col Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, and Thomas Corel.

The report explores how states beyond the United States and Taiwan could respond to a major Taiwan contingency, defined as a conflict that might start in the so-called “gray zone” between peace and war, but then could escalate into a larger campaign of unification by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The report examines how geopolitical interests, values, and material power might determine the approaches of countries across the region and the world in a timely examination of a critically important national security issue.

Specifically, the authors argue that structural factors at the time of any contingency matter greatly, detailing four key factors that would shape states’ responses: the nature of the contingency; the global trade and technology landscape when it occurs; Taiwanese and U.S. capabilities and responses; and the spectrum of intervention options.

The report outlines the considerations that would shape responses from four groups of states whose decisions would play a major role in determining the outcome of a Taiwan contingency. These include the relative risks they face from a Taiwan contingency and their political posture toward the United States and China.

The analysis of the structural factors and state groupings results in several findings that could have particular relevance for policy makers: First, other states would likely only come to Taiwan’s aid if Taiwan fights fiercely, and the United States robustly intervenes. Second, geographic proximity increases any country’s stake in defending Taiwan but also exposes them more to Beijing’s retaliation. Third, states may try to balance their economic interests—especially access to high-end semiconductors—with ending the conflict to mitigate the massive economic impact of a Taiwan contingency. Fourth, the choices states make will depend on their national interests and values but also on gauging what others do.

The report includes several recommendations for U.S. policymakers should they choose to mount an effective coalition defense of Taiwan during a contingency, recommending they:

• Prioritize preventing a Taiwan contingency;
• Reinforce with Taipei how much would hinge on Taiwan’s contingency response, both in terms of demonstrating will and capabilities;
• Expect limited contributions but be creative in exploring what in the spectrum of intervention might be possible;
• Deepen intra-Asian and Euro-Asian security ties that include the United States;
• Support and, where possible, facilitate the growth of intra-Asian security ties that do not rely on the United States as the hub; and
• Plan for humanitarian evacuation operations as a means to encourage Southeast Asian countries to think through a Taiwan contingency.

The full report can be read here.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the report's authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at [email protected].