Post-Asad Syria Policy Should Focus on Mitigating Risks to U.S. Interests, Argues CNAS Expert

The brutal conflict underway in
Syria jeopardizes key U.S. strategic interests, but leaves Washington with few
attractive options to protect them and little leverage over the future of the
country. In Asad Under
Fire: Five Scenarios for the Future of Syria, released today by the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Visiting Fellow Melissa Dalton
argues that the United States must prepare for a range of potential future
scenarios and implement policies now to mitigate future risks to its interests
in the event of a transition of power from Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.

Click
here to download Asad
Under Fire: Five Scenarios for the Future of Syria.



Click
here to watch a video interview with Dalton as she discusses the tensions that
exist within different U.S. interests in Syria.

In Asad Under Fire , Dalton
contends that "thoughtful planning with allies and partners and a
commitment to protect U.S. interests over the long term could result in the
possibility of a new, if challenging, beginning for Syria." She identifies
the five most likely trajectories for Syria, ranging from Asad being killed to
Syria disintegrating along sectarian or religious lines, and then outlines
several recommendations that policymakers should adopt now to help mitigate
risks to U.S. interests, including:

• Engage
  all emerging leaders in Syria, making it clear that U.S. assistance will
  be predicated on certain principles, such as the protection of minority
  rights and Israeli security;
• Acknowledge
  that even if the current Syria-Iran alliance is severed with Asad's
  departure, Iran will likely play a role in post-Asad Syria;
• Caution
  both Israel and Turkey that intervening in Syria carries significant
  risks, but plan to collectively mitigate those risks in the event that
  intervention becomes necessary;
• Increase
  counterterrorism intelligence sharing and security cooperation with
  Syria's neighbors to track and limit the growth of terrorist cells in
  Syria;
• Amplify
  calls to partners and allies to develop a strategy for post-conflict
  assistance led by the Syrian opposition; and
• Strengthen
  calls to the Syrian opposition to include transitional justice as a plank
  in its political platform, along with assurances for inclusivity and fair
  and representative governance to allay minority concerns. Make lethal
  assistance to opposition members conditional on their compliance.

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