March 10, 2025
America’s Eroding Airpower
For more than 80 years, a cornerstone of the United States’ military strength has been its unparalleled ability to project power through the air. Washington has the most sophisticated fleet of combat aircraft in the world. Because these planes can be refueled by the country’s many tankers, they have global reach. From domestic bases, stealthy bombers can fly through heavily defended airspace unmolested and destroy multiple targets in one mission. American short-range fighter aircraft can drop bombs and take out enemy planes and surface-to-air missiles.
But the U.S. fleet is shrinking, and its airpower advantage appears to be eroding. Rivals such as China and Russia have invested in air defenses that deny the United States superiority over the skies and force it to rely on expensive standoff missile strikes—that is, attacks launched far enough away to be beyond the reach of enemy defenses. China, the United States’ main rival, unveiled two new stealth aircraft designs in December, demonstrating surprising progress in its fighter technology. Other adversaries have produced large numbers of cheap drones and missiles that allow for low-cost airstrikes.
To have a chance at success, the United States would need more low-end drones and missiles that can provide it with mass.
The effects of inexpensive drones are evident in today’s conflicts. In Ukraine, both Kyiv and Moscow try to overwhelm the other’s air defenses by bombarding them with disposable drones. Traditional planes have stayed in safer airspace behind the frontlines, while cheaper uncrewed systems strike deep into enemy territory. In the Middle East, Iran and its proxies have used drones and missiles to launch standoff attacks against Israel, commercial shipping, and U.S. forces. Although these attacks have not caused widespread damage, they are expensive to interdict. Cumulatively, the U.S. Navy has spent more than $1 billion on munitions to stop them, far more than the attacks cost. The United States, for example, has been firing AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles—worth more than $1 million each—to shoot down Iranian-made drones that cost $50,000.
From these conflicts, the Pentagon appears to have learned that it needs to invest more in cheap drones. In August 2023, it launched the Replicator Initiative, which aims to field thousands of expendable autonomous systems within two years to counter China’s growing military. In 2024, the U.S. Air Force awarded initial contracts for another program designed to produce a thousand advanced drones that fly alongside crewed fighter jets. But this bet on cheap drones seems to be coming at the expense of high-end planes. The navy and air force have delayed their next-generation fighter programs, and the Trump administration is likely to continue this pause. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has exempted drones from his planned budget cuts.
Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Bloomberg Economics' Becca Wasser and Dina Esfandiary Talk Iran Conflict
Podcast
With President Trump set to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of this week’s UN meetings, the Iran war is likely to take center stage. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and risi...
By Becca Wasser
-
Big Take: The Real Costs of the U.S. Iran Blockade
Congressional Testimony
On today's Big Take podcast, Bloomberg Global Defense Editor Gerry Doyle and Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Securi...
By Becca Wasser
-
Drones, Missiles, and the U.S. Munitions Shortage
Reports
Executive Summary Drones have exploded in popularity since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There is a growing view that inexpensive drones—“affordable mass”—a...
By Philip Sheers & Stacie Pettyjohn
-
Rethink... Warfare
Podcast
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, joins BBC Sounds - Rethink to discuss how recent conflicts have changed the shape ...
By Stacie Pettyjohn
