Image credit: Andriy Dubchak/AP
May 10, 2023
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive
The West Needs to Prepare the Country’s Military for a Long War
As the Russian winter offensive reaches its culmination, Ukraine is poised to seize the initiative. In the coming weeks, it plans to conduct an offensive operation, or series of offensives, that may prove decisive in this phase of the conflict. This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation. Ukraine is also eager to demonstrate that, despite months of brutal fighting, its military is not exhausted and remains able to break through Russian lines.
The offensive has consumed planning, but a sober-minded approach would recognize that supporting Ukraine will be a long-term effort.
Policymakers, however, have placed undue emphasis on the upcoming offensive without providing sufficient consideration of what will come afterward and whether Ukraine is well positioned for the next phase. It is critical that Ukraine’s Western partners develop a long-term theory of victory for Ukraine, since even in the best-case scenario, this upcoming offensive is unlikely to end the conflict. Indeed, what follows this operation could be another period of indeterminate fighting and attrition, but with reduced ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. This is already a long war, and it is likely to become protracted. History is an imperfect guide, but it suggests wars that endure for more than a year are likely to go on for at least several more and are exceedingly difficult to end. A Western theory of success must therefore prevent a situation in which the war drags on, but where Western countries are unable to provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Ukraine's Offensive and its Meaning for the War
Podcast
Following Russia’s failed winter offensive, Ukraine appears to be preparing for its planned counter-offensive. Ryan sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the state of Russia’s ...
By Michael Kofman & Ryan Evans
-
Ukraine's Delayed Offensive, IVG Reproduction, Preparing for Debt Default
Podcast
Ukraine has been preparing for months to launch a counteroffensive against Russia's invasion, but the high stakes operation has seen many delays. Michael Kofman joins NPR Up F...
By Michael Kofman
-
What Comes Next for U.S. Policy Towards Russia?
Congressional Testimony
Watch the full hearing on "What Comes Next for U.S. Policy Toward Russia", held by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.I. Introduction Chairman Menendez, Ranking Member Ris...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
Michael Kofman on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Video
CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Michael Kofman talked about the state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive with C-SPAN. Watch the full inte...
By Michael Kofman
